IDPS AND STRANDED VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
39. During this crisis, most of the vulnerable people
chose to remain in their homes, lacking the resources or strength
to become displaced. These people are referred to as internally
stranded or 'stuck'; people with little or no access to food and
water at home but who lack the assets or strength to move elsewhere
to seek assistance[58].
Those who have had to move have become displaced rather than fleeing
the country as refugees. Sakandar Ali noted that where people
had a choice they preferred to remain with friends and family
while recognising that this imposed a burden on already stretched
households. He was concerned that such local coping mechanisms
would eventually start to break down[59].
40. The UN estimates that there are between five
and seven and a half million vulnerable people inside Afghanistan.
This estimate may increase once there is access to those areas
still affected by conflict and an assessment is made of numbers
of people who have been displaced by the conflict or whose livelihoods
have been further damaged. Table 6 shows a breakdown of refugees,
IDPs and Internally Stranded Persons (ISPs).
Refugees in Iran pre-11 September
| 1,500,000 |
Refugees in Pakistan pre-11 September |
2,000,000 |
Refugees elsewhere in region pre-11 September
| 195,000 |
|
New refugees in Pakistan since 11 September
| 100,000 |
New refugees in Iran since 11 September |
20,000 |
|
Current estimated Internally Displaced (IDPs)
| 1,200,000 |
Current estimated Internally Stranded (ISPs)
| 4,150,000 |
|
Subtotal | 5,470,000
|
|
UN projected further IDPs/ISPs | 2,000,000
|
|
Projected Vulnerable Total | 7,500,000 (rounded)
|
Table 6: Populations in need of humanitarian assistance/protection[60]
(All figures should be treated with caution)
41. There has been a complex pattern of displacement within Afghanistan
as a result of the drought and then the conflict. The initial
movement was the result of drought but this was followed by a
second displacement away from urban areas towards either the border
or rural areas[61]. This
second movement of people was driven by fear, conflict and bombing.
It is difficult to get a clear picture of the current IDP situation
but IDPs seem to be clustered around a dozen locations with a
small number in camps around Herat, Chaman and Jalalabad. The
largest concentrations of IDPs are near Jalalabad and Mazar-e
Sharif, with fewer in the south near Qalat, Kandahar and Spin
Boldak[62]. The situation
is changing rapidly and there is still no clear information on
the impact that the fall of the Taliban and the advance of the
Northern Alliance has had on IDP numbers. In its memorandum, DFID
said that military developments were allowing some people to return
home[63] but in November
there was some evidence of new displacements away from areas of
ongoing conflict (Kandahar, Kunduz, Mazar-e Sharif). It is certainly
true that the people displaced because of conflict will return
home once security around their homes improves. However, those
people displaced because of food shortages are unlikely to return
home unless they can be sure of access to the food they need.
Friends and relatives are supporting many of the IDPs. This must
have an impact on the food stocks that these families have set
aside for the winter and could lead to a further food shortages
and a weakening of traditional coping mechanisms.
CAMPS INSIDE AFGHANISTAN
42. With Pakistan's and Iran's borders closed there were build-ups,
in the border areas, of people trying to flee. In response, two
camps, Makaki and Mile 46, were established by the Iranian Red
Crescent inside Afghanistan near the Iranian border and one camp
was established near Chaman at Spin Boldak. The UNHCR was unwilling
to provide support for these camps as there were no systems in
place to ensure the civilian nature of the camps and no safeguards
to prevent the Taliban or the Northern Alliance from using the
camps as recruiting grounds. Where humanitarian relief is needed,
an appropriate humanitarian space has to be created. Rwanda provides
an only too clear example of the problems caused by military infiltration
in to refugee or IDP camps.
50 www.un.org/news/dh/20010917.htm Back
51 UNHCR
Afghan Refugee Statistics, 10 Sept 2001, http://wwww.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/s/81F3C45318379FABC1256ACB0039B878 Back
52 Islamic
Republic of Iran in Short, UNHCR 2001 Global Appeal, www.unhcr.ch/pubs/fdrs/ga2001/irn.pdf Back
53 Ev
42, [Para 3] Back
54 UNHCR
Afghan refugee statistics 10 Sept 2001,
http://wwww.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/s/81F3C45318379FABC1256ACB0039B878 Back
55 Q94 Back
56 Ev
116, [Para 27] Back
57 Q76 Back
58 In
their memorandum DFID included a colour map showing IDP and ISP
locations at 13 November. This is reproduced Vol II, Ev 124,
[Annex F] of the evidence. Back
59 Q76 Back
60 DFID
Afghanistan Crisis: Situation Report, 28 November 2001 Back
61 Q76 Back
62 DFID
included a map of IDP populations in its memorandum. See Ev124,
[Annex F] Back
63 Ev
115, [Para 25] Back