Memorandum submitted by the Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change is the result of unsustainable
development and substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will
be needed to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol provides a framework for international
action to tackle a global problem but it is only a first step.
Developing countries, particularly the poorest and the most vulnerable
people within those countries, will be the most severely affected
by the adverse impacts of climate change. These impacts will exacerbate
global problems such as drought, famine, disease, vulnerability,
insecurity, and population displacements, and seriously impede
poor countries' efforts to develop sustainably and tackle poverty.
Without serious action to mitigate climate change and to integrate
its consideration into all areas of policy, action to achieve
the Millennium Development Goals will be in jeopardy. Whilst developing
countries must have the right and opportunity to develop and developed
countries must work in partnership with them to eliminate poverty,
effective mitigation will—in due course—require action
and participation by all countries, if the worst impacts of climate
change are to be avoided
1. INTRODUCTION
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
1.1 The concept of sustainable development
was first introduced in the IUCN/WWF/UNEP World Conservation Strategy
of 1980. It proposed the preservation of nature from human exploitation
by physical segregation of the seemingly conflicting goals of
environmental sensitivity and economic growth. The World Commission
on Environment and Development's 1987 Report, Our Common Future,
sought to end this dichotomy through the marriage of environmental
and developmental goals under a single definition. Sustainable
development was formally defined as meeting "...the needs
of the present without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs".
1.2 The 1999 UK Government Sustainable Development
Strategy interprets the 1987 Brundtland definition as "...ensuring
a better quality of life for everyone, now and for generations
to come" —which requires meeting four objectives at
the same time, both in the UK and the world as a whole:
— social progress which recognises
the needs of everybody;
— effective protection of the environment;
— prudent use of natural resources;
and
— maintenance of high and stable levels
of economic growth and employment.
1.3 Although meeting economic, social and
environmental objectives together should be the aim, conflicting
impact—particularly in the short term—will arise.
Where potential conflicts are identified, efforts should first
be made to find creative solutions—including reviewing goals
and re-evaluating options. Mitigation measures should be considered,
eg compensation, substitution. Trade-offs should be a last resort
but should always be made transparent and accessible. To ensure
opportunities are grasped wherever possible, action to promote
and integrate sustainable development in policy development and
implementation is needed at all levels—global, national
and local.
1.4 At global level, problems such as climate
change, poverty, migration and disease have become new challenges
for the international community as they are too big for nationals
to tackle alone. There is broad consensus that global solutions
are needed to global problems—although this does not of
course absolve individual countries and actors from taking appropriate
action. The problem of climate change—which is the result
of unsustainable development—requires co-ordinated action
because of the nature and the scale of the problem and the difficult
issues and judgements required to tackle it. For example, assessing
the relative economic, social and environmental costs and benefits
of the options for action, and the relative weight attached to
the wellbeing of current generations compared to those of the
future. Action to tackle climate change is intimately linked to
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, as without effective
action on the former progress to reduce poverty and vulnerability
will be jeopardised. The rate of climate change will bring more
intense and unpredictable impacts that will be felt across the
world. For example, sea-level rise threatens the existence of
some small island states and puts millions of people at risk from
flooding. Temperature increases, drought and flooding will affect
people's health and way of life, and cause the irreversible loss
of many species of plants and animals. The economic, human and
environmental costs are likely to be large and could create political
tension within and between countries, exacerbating regional instability.
DEFRA's Role and Responsibilities
1.5 The Secretary of State for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs has lead policy responsibility within Whitehall
for both climate change and sustainable development—but
DFID clearly has a key role, interest and expertise in issues
pertaining to sustainable development in developing countries.
The Deputy Prime Minister also continues to play a role in international
climate change discussions and negotiations on behalf of the Prime
Minister. More recently, the Prime Minister has asked the Deputy
Prime Minister to take on a similar role in preparation for the
World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) to be held in Johannesburg
in 2002.
1.6 In developing policy and implementing
initiatives, DEFRA works closely with a wide range of government
departments and the devolved administrations. The UK Delegations
that the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
led during the international climate change negotiations in 2001
included officials from DEFRA, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office
(FCO), the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Cabinet Office
(CO), the Department for International Development (DFID), and
the Scottish Executive. British High Commissions and Embassies
also make an important contribution to the pursuit and attainment
of the UK's goals through regularly communicating the views of
local interlocutors on key issues to London-based officials and
vice versa.
Structure of Memorandum
1.7 The remainder of this memorandum is
structured in six parts. The first section summarises the key
scientific findings on climate change, describing the latest IPCC
projections and their implications and the possible impacts of
climate change on developing countries. The second section describes
the policy response to this problem at three levels—international,
European Union (EU) and the UK. Section four examines some of
the main aspects of the Kyoto Protocol and associated decisions
that are of relevance and interest to developing countries. The
fifth section looks ahead to describe the next steps and future
challenges, and the final section draws the preceding strands
together.
2. CLIMATE CHANGE
SCIENCE
The Third Assessment Report (TAR)[6]
2.1 The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) TAR projected temperature rises, using a full range
of socio-economic scenarios (1999), of 1.4-5.8ºC by 2100.
Such rises in temperature and climate change will have widespread
impacts that will be more severe the greater the temperature rise.
Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change
that will hinder their efforts to develop. A sustainable approach
requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised in
the atmosphere at a level which avoids dangerous climate change.
For stabilisation to occur emissions will eventually have to drop
well below current levels. However, it will be impossible to stabilise
concentrations unless all countries including developing countries,
eventually take on emission reduction or limitation targets.
2.2 The TAR notes that, with regard to the
climate system, "the basis for determining what constitutes
`dangerous anthropogenic interference' will vary among regions—depending
both on the local nature and consequences of climate change impacts,
and also on the adaptive capacity available to cope with climate
change—and depends upon mitigation capacity, since the magnitude
and the rate of change are both important". Whilst there
is as yet no internationally agreed limit on atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations, the EU has indicated that a level lower
than 550 ppm of CO2, which is about twice the pre-industrial concentration,
should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. The Royal
Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) has also recommended
that concentrations of 550 ppm should not be exceeded. This may
be a useful interim guideline but it is not necessarily the final
answer. The choice of an upper limit for carbon dioxide concentration
in the atmosphere is one for which there is no international consensus
and indeed no clear scientific guideline.
2.3 The TAR notes the range of temperatures
that could result for different stabilisation levels. At 550 ppm
the range is approximately 2.0-5.2ºC above 1990 levels depending
on the sensitivity of the climate system to the additional radiative
forcing due to CO2. This range poses difficulties in assessing
the impacts of a particular stabilisation level. The scientific
uncertainties are such that for low sensitivity relatively modest
globally aggregated impacts may be found at 550 ppm, although
there is still potential for significant local/sub-regional impacts.
However, at high sensitivity there are considerable risks that
significant damage could be experienced. The global aggregation
of impacts is controversial as they treat gains for some as cancelling
out losses for others and because the process requires considerable
subjectivity.
2.4 Assuming middle range climate sensitivity,
mitigation costs show a fairly gradual increase down to stabilisation
at 550 ppm but a significantly faster increase for lower stabilisation
levels. Additionally the TAR makes a tentative assessment of the
impacts of climate change that may be associated with different
temperature levels.
Impacts on developing countries
2.5 The IPCC's TAR confirms that:
— regional changes in climate, particularly
increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set
of biological and physical systems in many parts of the world;
— projected impacts, including the
impacts of future changes due to extreme climate events, tend
to fall disproportionately on the poor;
— adverse changes in seasonal river
flows, floods and droughts, food security, fisheries, health effects
and loss of biodiversity are among the major regional vulnerabilities
and concerns of Africa, Latin America and Asia where adaptation
opportunities are generally low;
— those with the least resources have
the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable; and
— the majority of people will be adversely
affected by climate change even for small increases in temperature.
For example:
— increased risks to life, health
and property from extreme events and potentially large-scale population
displacements;
— increases in vector diseases
such as malaria;
— widespread increases in flooding
due to more extreme precipitation and sea level rise;
— more landslides and avalanches;
— reduced crop yields in the tropics;
— increase in crop yields in mid
latitudes up to a few degrees of warming (about 2-3ºC) than
reductions;
— increases and decreases in water
availability in water scarce regions;
— some possible benefits in particular
regions or sectors for small increases in temperature, eg reduced
winter mortality due to reduced cold periods;
— climate change is likely to have
increasingly negative impacts on GDP for developing countries
at all temperature rises, with mixed effects on developed countries
up to a few degrees and negative above.
2.6 Advances in understanding of impacts
and adaptation made since previous IPCC reports indicate a need
for initiatives to begin designing adaptation strategies and building
adaptive capacities. Further research is required, however, to
strengthen future assessments and to reduce uncertainties in order
to ensure that sufficient information is available for policymaking
about responses to possible consequences of climate change, including
research in and by developing countries.
3. POLICY RESPONSE
The International Framework
3.1 The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change entered into force in 1994. It represented the
international community's initial response to the problem of climate
change. The ultimate objective of the Convention is the "...stabilisation
of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system" (although this level
has yet to be agreed). Underlying this is the principle that countries
should take action in accordance with their common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective capabilities. Developed countries
(known as Annex 1 countries) agreed to take the lead under the
Convention, given their responsibility for the largest share of
historic and current emissions. In line with this, they committed
themselves to the aim of returning their emissions to 1990 levels
by the year 2000 and the UK was one of small number of countries
that achieved this.
3.2 The Convention established a framework
for future co-operation and, in recognition that more demanding
commitments were needed from developed countries than those under
the Convention, Parties to agree a more ambitious Treaty in 1997,
the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 countries
agreed to reduce their combined emissions of a basket of six greenhouse
gases by a least 5 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2008-12.
The Protocol provides for three market mechanisms (described in
paragraph 4.6) which allow developed countries to meet their commitments
more cost-effectively by "buying" or generating emission
reduction credits in other countries. Developed countries are
also permitted to reduce credit towards their emissions targets
through certain land use, land use change and forestry activities
(also known as "sinks").
3.3 The Protocol provided the framework
for further international action but did not address the many
detailed questions that needed to be worked out to facilitate
the Protocol's implementation. In view of this, the international
negotiations since 1997 have focussed on developing the necessary
rules. They culminated with the adoption of a political agreement
at the Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP6bis) in July 2001
("the Bonn Agreement") on the framework giving effect
to Kyoto, which was translated into legal decision texts ("the
Marrakech Accords") at COP7 in November 2001. This deal was
a tremendous political achievement. For the first time, there
are clear and agreed rules governing how developed countries could
take action to fulfil their emission reduction and limitation
targets. The US's withdrawal from Kyoto (see paragraph 5.6) has
reduced the reductions achievable under Kyoto. However, even without
US participation, the effect of climate change policies of countries
with such binding targets should be equivalent to a reduction
of about 9 per cent in total developed country emissions below
business as usual in 2010 (or almost 2 per cent if excess assigned
amount units and sinks credits are stripped out of the calculation).
More significantly, Kyoto's entry into force will put in place
a global framework for future action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
The European Union
3.4 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU collectively
agreed to cut the level of its greenhouse gas emissions by 8 per
cent compared to 1990 levels by the end of the first commitment
period (2008-12). This collective target was distributed between
Member States under a burden-sharing agreement (under which Member
States targets ranged from -21 per cent for Germany and Denmark
to a limitation target of +27 per cent for Portugal).
3.5 Negotiations within the EU on a number
of issues crucial for taking forward the Community's work on climate
change are currently ongoing. Specifically, discussions involve:
— A proposed EU Emissions Trading
Directive—This would establish a Europe-wide emission
trading scheme, which would be regulated through a permitting
procedure setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions between 2005-07
initially.
— The European Climate Change Programme—This
package of common and co-ordinated policies and measures will
help reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the EU, and has been
prepared in discussion with Member States and other stakeholders
from business and NGOs.
— Council Decision on ratification
of the Kyoto Protocol—This sets out the emission commitments
agreed by Member States, and places an obligation on each to take
the measures necessary to comply with their respective commitments.
3.6 Through its development programmes,
the EU is also seeking to assist developing countries tackle and
adapt to climate change. Close co-operation will be required with
other donors and multilateral institutions in taking forward this
work and climate change considerations will need to be fully integrated
in the EU's policy, and programme and project design cycles.
The UK
3.7 Under the EU burden sharing agreement,
the UK is committed to reducing its emissions of greenhouse gases
by 12.5 per cent by 2008-12. However, the Government estimates
that it could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions below 1990 levels by 2010, which is well beyond our
Kyoto target. The UK's strategic approach to tackling climate
change is set out in the UK's Climate Change Programme (CCP),
published in November 2000. The programme focuses on practical
action to reduce emissions over the next decade and contains a
package of policies and measures covering all sectors of the economy.
There is also a range of measures that cannot currently be quantified,
for example, action by local authorities and public awareness
programmes. The UK was one of the first countries to publish its
Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change on 30 October 2001. The Communication provides
an update on the substantial progress that has been by the Government
with implementing the policies in the programme. Copies of both
the CCP and Third National Communication can be found in the library
of the House.
3.8 In addition to the provision of assistance
through the UK's bilateral development programme, the UK also
supports research into climate change and its impacts on developing
countries (see Annex A) and a range of projects through the joint
DEFRA-FCO Climate Change Challenge Fund (see Annex B).
3.9 Other relevant work that the Government
is engaged in includes its Sustainable Energy Initiative to promote
low carbon energy in developing countries following up the work
done by the G8 on renewable energy and the establishment a Climate
Change Projects Office (CCPO) in May 2001. The CCPO's aim is to
facilitate and promote the participation of UK businesses in Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) projects,
and to enhance UK industry's ability to capitalise on the significant
anticipated commercial climate change opportunities.
4. KYOTO AND
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Developing country commitments
4.1 Although developing countries have not
taken on legally binding emission targets, they have to have other
obligations under the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.
For example, under the deal that was reached in Marrakech, developing
countries are required to publish national greenhouse gas emissions
inventories, and to put in place national programmes containing
measures to mitigate climate change. The Clean Development Mechanism
(see paragraphs 4.6—4.11 below) provides an opportunity
for developing countries to participate directly in projects to
reduce emissions.
4.2 In addition to reducing or limiting
their greenhouse gas emissions, developed countries are also required
to provide assistance to developing countries under the Convention
and Protocol. For example, the UNFCCC requires developed countries
to help particularly vulnerable developing countries meet the
costs of adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change,
to assist the transfer of environmentally sound technologies to
developing countries and economies in transition, and to support
capacity building. This approach recognises that it is essential
that economies are allowed to grow and develop whilst providing
assistance to developing countries which should ensure that their
economies develop in a more sustainable way.
Funding
4.3 In order to meet their commitments,
developed countries agreed to provide new and additional financial
resources to help developing countries meet their Convention obligations.
The Bonn Agreement invited the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
to establish three new funds to provide assistance to developing
countries:
— Special Climate Change Fund—to
finance activities to assist developing countries, including in
the fields of adaptation and technology transfer.
— Least Developed Countries Fund—to
support a work programme for least developed countries (LDCs),
including the preparation and implementation of national adaptation
programmes of action (NAPAs).
— Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund—to
finance adaptation projects in developing countries that have
become parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The fund will be financed
in part by a share of the proceeds from the Clean Development
Mechanism.
4.4 In addition, the EU, Canada, New Zealand,
Norway, Iceland and Switzerland made a joint political declaration
at Bonn committing themselves to increase their climate change
funding for developing countries to $410 million a year by 2005.
Funding that will be counted towards this target includes: contributions
to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) climate change-related
activities; funding for the three new funds detailed above; and
bilateral and multi-lateral funding that is additional to current
levels.
Least Developed Countries
4.5 In Marrakech, a number of decisions
were agreed on issues of special significance to Least Developed
Countries (LDC). The adoption of guidance on the operation of
the LDC Fund should make it the first of the new funds agreed
in Bonn to begin funding projects. The Seventh Conference of the
Parties also agreed to the establishment of a special body to
assist LDCs in adapting to the problem of climate change—the
LDC Expert Group. This has particular significance, as no other
groups were established representing any of the other special
interests recognised under the Convention.
The Clean Development Mechanism
4.6 To assist countries in meeting their
Kyoto targets as cost effectively as possible, the Kyoto Protocol
provides for three market mechanisms. The basic idea behind them
is that the effect on the global environment of reducing or limiting
emissions is the same wherever the emissions come from, so it
is better to take action where the cost is lowest. The three mechanisms
are:
— International Emissions Trading
(IET)—Parties with targets under Kyoto can participate
in international emissions trading or can authorise their legal
entities to take part in international emissions trading. In order
to meet their target, Parties (or their legal entities) can either
make "in house" emission reductions (and can sell any
reductions surplus to their requirements on the market) or they
can buy tradable emission allowances as a way of meeting their
targets.
— Joint Implementation (JI)—JI
involves two Annex 1 countries with targets under Kyoto. Country
A could invest in a project in country B that reduced the emissions
of Country by x tonnes. Country B would then transfer x tonnes
of its assigned amount units (ie units that correspond to its
permitted level of emissions under Kyoto) to Country A. Transition
countries are most likely to want to host JI projects.
— The Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM)—Like JI, the CDM is a project based mechanism.
Parties can undertake emission reduction or avoidance projects
in developing countries. These projects can generate Certified
Emissions Reductions (CERs) that can be used by developed countries
to meet their Kyoto targets.
4.7 Of the three mechanisms, the CDM is
the one of most interest to developing countries. The modalities
and procedures for the CDM were adopted at COP7. Unlike IET and
JI, the CDM has a dual purpose—to assist Annex 1 Parties
meet their Kyoto targets and to assist developing countries in
achieving sustainable development. Consistent with the latter
objective, CDM project proposals may only be registered if the
host country has confirmed that the project activity assists it
in achieving sustainable development. The rules governing the
CDM project cycle also require project developers to consult local
stakeholders and to analyse the environmental impacts of their
proposal and, if they are significant, undertake an Environmental
Impact Assessment.
4.8 The CDM is the only Kyoto mechanism
to enjoy a "prompt start" which means that it is possible
for projects starting from the year 2000 to generate Certified
Emission Reductions. However, to be eligible, projects must be
additional—ie result in a greater reduction (or avoidance)
of GHG emission reductions than would have resulted from under
the "business as usual"/without project scenario. Many
developing countries hope that the CDM will help them to attract
greater foreign direct investment. However, the amount of investment
expected through the CDM has been adversely affected by the US's
withdrawal from Kyoto in March 2001.
Equitable Distribution of CDM Projects
4.9 Developing countries (particularly in
Africa) have also been concerned about the equitable distribution
of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. Evidence suggests
that 80 per cent of CDM investment will go to a very few countries
(eg India, China, Brazil). Some Parties (especially in sub-Saharan
Africa) will have problems attracting any CDM projects as their
very low (ie non-fossil fuel) emissions baseline gives fewer opportunities
for projects and the same barriers to foreign direct investment
(FDI) in LDCs are likely to apply to the CDM as well.
4.10 Analysis suggests that poorer developing
countries would be more likely to attract small, as opposed to
large, scale investment, and that smaller scale projects have
the potential to achieve higher development benefits, in particular
higher poverty reduction impact within developing countries. However,
the transaction costs associated with complying with the modalities
and procedures of the CDM have been estimated to be as much as
tens of thousands of pounds. As these costs are unlikely to vary
significantly with the size of the project, they will comprise
a larger percentage of the total costs of a small-scale project.
This may make small-scale environmentally additional projects
economically unviable and have an adverse bearing on the equitable
distribution of CDM projects.
4.11 In recognition of this, it was felt
that the key to improving the chances of LDCs hosting projects
was to make small-scale projects attractive to investors by minimising
transaction costs. This could be achieved through the development
of simplified procedures for small-scale projects and this was
something the EU pressed for with the negotiations. Parties therefore
agreed that simplified modalities and procedures should be devised
for small-scale project activities and this task has been give
to the Executive Board (the body responsible for overseeing the
CDM under the supervision of the COP).
Adaptation
4.12 The UK and other donor countries have
resisted providing full funding for adaptation projects before
the adoption of credible adaptation strategies by developing countries.
The first step would be to provide a national communication on
Climate Change Convention objectives, or, for LDCs, a national
adaptation programme of action. The UK would consider providing
adaptation assistance where the work forms a credible part of
an overall poverty reduction strategy. As part of the package
adopted at Marrakech (described above), some support for adaptation
was agreed. The Government has not yet decided which of the new
funds would be the best vehicle for delivering effective support
on adaptation.
5. NEXT STEPS
AND FUTURE
CHALLENGES
The Kyoto Protocol's Ratification and Entry into
Force
5.1 The Marrakech Accords should pave the
way for prompt entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. This is
triggered once a minimum of 55 countries have ratified the Protocol,
including Annex 1 countries accounting for at least 55 per cent
of this industrialised group's emissions in 1990. As of 11 December
2001, 46 countries had ratified Kyoto. The UK, along with the
rest of the EU, is committed to ratify the Protocol in time to
allow its entry into force by the World Summit on Sustainable
Development in Johannesburg in 2002.
5.2 Following the US withdrawal, it is essential
that both Russia and Japan ratify the Protocol, in addition to
the EU and Central and Eastern European countries (that have signalled
their intention to ratify to the same timetable as the EU). Immediately
after Marrakech, the Japanese Government announced that it would
now press ahead with preparations for ratification in 2002. Russia
was also positive about ratification at the final plenary session
in Marrakech, but it will be important to secure a clear commitment
to ratification. The UK will also strongly encourage other industrialised
countries to ratify the Protocol. This is important both from
an environmental point of view, and in order to send a clear signal
to developing countries that the developed world is serious about
tackling this problem.
The World Summit on Sustainable Development and
Climate Change
5.3 The World Summit on Sustainable Development
will take place in South Africa from 26 August to 4 September
2002. It will mark the tenth anniversary of the Rio "Earth
Summit" which, amongst other things, set in process the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change. As one of the most important
outcomes from the Rio process the issue of climate change will
inevitably feature. However, the ongoing UNFCCC process is the
most productive format for taking forward the issue of climate
change, particularly given the successful outcomes of Bonn and
Marrakech, and therefore we do not expect climate change to be
one of the major agenda items of the Summit.
5.4 The Summit will focus instead on where
there have been "gaps" in implementing Agenda 21. The
Summit is expected to look at implementation mechanisms for sustainable
development, in particular the involvement of the private sector
and NGOs, and sectoral issues including energy, transfer of technology,
and resourch efficiency, all of which will have linkages to climate
change.
The Eighth Conference of Parties (COP8)
5.5 The eighth Conference of Parties to
the UNFCCC—or if, as hoped, the Kyoto Protocol has already
entered into force by WSSD, the first session of the Conference
of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties of the Kyoto
Protocol—is scheduled for 23 October to 1 November 2002.
At the Conference, work will continue on developing further rules
and guidance on which Kyoto will operate and other issues concerning
the implementation of the Marrakech Accords. The UK Government
also wants to take forward the debate on the future of the Convention
and associated key issues such as the level at which greenhouse
gas should be stabilised globally, the depth of emissions cuts
needed in future commitment periods, and both developed and developing
countries' participation in this process.
The US
5.6 In March 2001, President Bush announced
that the US was withdrawing from the Kyoto because of its impact
on the US economy and limited extent of developing country participation.
President Bush has recognised that climate change is a serious
challenge and the Administration is currently undertaking a climate
change policy review to consider what action the US should take.
The UK Government is encouraging the US to develop proposals for
domestic action that demonstrate the US is serious about tackling
climate change and that are compatible with the Kyoto process.
Key to this is the need for binding targets and the compatibility
of technical details—in particular, greenhouse gas coverage,
Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and the technical standards for
registries. Serious US action is necessary both to the achievement
of the overall objective of the Convention and to the negotiations
on future targets. The UK Government would of course like to see
the US fully re-engage with the international process to tackle
climate change in due course and the door remains open for them
to do so at any time.
Negotiations on future targets
5.7 To achieve the overall objective of
the UNFCCC and stabilise concentrations of the greenhouse gases
(GHG) in the atmosphere, deeper cuts in GHG will be required in
the second and subsequent Kyoto commitment periods. The negotiations
on the rules and targets for the second commitment period must
begin by 2005 and, in this context, it will be important to enter
into a dialogue with developing countries about their future rights
and responsibilities. As developing countries aspire—and
are encouraged—to develop, their emissions are set to rise
substantially. Nobody contests the right of, and need for, poor
countries to develop to reduce poverty and make progress towards
the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals—the key
issue is the manner in which they (and developed countries) do
this. To ensure a prosperous future for poor and rich countries
alike that respects the quality of life and the environment, development
must be sustainable and this requires action to be taken which
respects the environmental limits of the planet.
5.8 There is a need to instigate a debate,
and agree on a process, for deciding how responsibility for tackling
climate change is going to be shared in future and the form it
will take. Future commitments will need to take account of countries'
different levels of development and be appropriate to their circumstances.
For example, developing countries will need commitments that do
not impede growth but ensure it is clean and sustainable and emissions
are avoided as well as reduced. And developed countries will need
to make deeper absolute cuts in their emissions levels and support
developing countries through capacity building, technology transfer
and targeted resource transfers for activities such as adaptation.
Clearly any serious domestic action by the US (alongside the measures
other developed countries will take under the Kyoto Protocol)
will be critical if developing countries are to be willing to
take on further commitments of their own in the future.
6. CONCLUSION
6.1 Climate change is a threat to sustainable
development in all countries but, due to the uneven geographical
impacts of climate change, resource shortages and capacity problems,
developing countries are likely to be the most vulnerable, particularly
the poorest. Action is being taken to tackle climate change and
the achievements to date should not be underestimated. However,
they represent only a first step and much deeper cuts in greenhouse
gases will be needed if the most severe adverse impacts of climate
change are to be avoided. That said, even with immediate action,
some impacts of climate change are unavoidable due to the current
concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere—it is therefore
critical that consideratoin climate change is integrated into
development policies at all levels to ensure poor countries can
adapt as effectively as possible.
6.2 As well as being affected by climate
change, developing countries are also increasingly contributing
to increases in anthropogenic GHG emission levels. Under the principle
of "common but differentiated responsibility" developing
countries are not subject to targets for the first Kyoto commitment
period (2008-2012). This reflects the fact that, given their historical
level of emissions, developed countries undertook to act first
and cut back their emissions to create space for poorer countries
to develop. However, the emissions of developing countries are
expected to increase rapidly and countries such as China and India
are already significant emitters. To stabilise level of greenhouse
gases, developing countries have to join developed countries in
taking action to reduce or avoid GHG emissions. Key to this is
the need to develop a dialogue and a process through which all
countries can constructively engage to this end, including the
United States.
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
January 2002
6 Approved by the IPCC in September 2001. Back
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