Select Committee on Office of the Deputy Prime Minister: Housing, Planning, Local Government and the Regions Memoranda

Appendices to memorandum by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (HOU 22) (continued)

Table 5

INCOME MULTIPLES, FIRST-TIME BUYERS EXCLUDING SITTING TENANTS, UK

		0-2.49	2.5-2.99	3-3.49	3.5-3.99	4 or more	Total
		%	%	%	%	%	%
1985	Q1	76.5	20.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	100.0
	Q2	75.5	19.9	3.6	0.8	0.2	100.0
	Q3	74.6	20.8	3.7	0.7	0.1	100.0
	Q4	72.8	22.7	3.5	0.7	0.2	100.0
1986	Q1	74.0	21.2	3.9	0.6	0.4	100.0
	Q2	72.6	22.4	4.0	0.5	0.4	100.0
	Q3	67.8	24.2	6.2	1.0	0.8	100.0
	Q4	65.9	25.4	7.0	1.3	0.3	100.0
1987	Q1	68.9	23.1	5.5	1.5	1.0	100.0
	Q2	70.6	22.3	5.6	0.8	0.7	100.0
	Q3	68.5	23.0	6.2	1.3	1.0	100.0
	Q4	65.2	24.0	6.7	2.1	1.9	100.0
1988	Q1	64.4	23.3	8.4	2.4	1.5	100.0
	Q2	63.0	24.4	8.6	1.9	2.0	100.0
	Q3	59.5	25.4	8.8	3.1	3.2	100.0
	Q4	60.5	25.3	8.9	2.9	2.3	100.0
1989	Q1	62.5	23.7	9.1	2.2	2.5	100.0
	Q2	60.3	24.5	9.2	3.1	2.9	100.0
	Q3	55.6	25.5	10.5	3.7	4.7	100.0
	Q4	53.9	26.5	11.7	4.7	3.2	100.0
1990	Q1	55.7	25.1	11.2	4.7	3.3	100.0
	Q2	56.6	25.3	11.5	3.8	2.8	100.0
	Q3	56.6	25.7	10.5	3.9	3.3	100.0
	Q4	58.7	25.3	9.9	3.2	2.9	100.0
1991	Q1	61.1	23.7	8.9	2.5	3.8	100.0
	Q2	60.0	24.7	10.3	2.7	2.4	100.0
	Q3	57.5	25.1	10.9	2.8	3.7	100.0
	Q4	57.0	26.5	10.7	3.0	2.7	100.0
1992	Q1	58.5	26.0	11.1	2.5	1.9	100.0
	Q2	58.3	26.4	11.5	2.2	1.6	100.0
	Q3	59.3	26.8	11.5	1.3	1.1	100.0
	Q4	62.0	25.8	10.1	1.3	0.8	100.0
1993	Q1	59.4	27.7	10.9	1.2	0.9	100.0
	Q2	58.1	28.0	10.7	1.7	1.5	100.0
	Q3	56.3	28.3	12.8	1.6	1.0	100.0
	Q4	57.0	28.3	12.6	1.5	0.6	100.0
1994	Q1	55.6	28.5	13.2	1.7	0.9	100.0
	Q2	57.4	27.1	12.7	1.9	0.9	100.0
	Q3	57.2	27.1	12.9	1.9	0.9	100.0
	Q4	54.2	28.7	14.7	1.3	1.1	100.0
1995	Q1	56.7	26.9	13.8	1.9	0.8	100.0
	Q2	55.1	27.9	14.9	1.5	0.6	100.0
	Q3	54.5	29.0	13.7	2.1	0.7	100.0
	Q4	56.3	26.7	13.9	2.2	0.8	100.0
1996	Q1	56.2	27.0	14.1	2.1	0.7	100.0
	Q2	55.2	26.4	15.0	2.5	0.8	100.0
	Q3	56.3	26.1	13.4	3.1	1.2	100.0
	Q4	55.2	27.4	14.7	2.1	0.7	100.0
1997	Q1	56.4	25.4	14.4	2.6	1.2	100.0
	Q2	53.5	27.3	14.8	3.5	1.0	100.0
	Q3	54.3	27.7	14.2	2.5	1.3	100.0
	Q4	55.2	26.5	14.3	2.8	1.3	100.0
1998	Q1	54.2	27.1	14.3	2.9	1.4	100.0
	Q2	54.5	25.7	14.9	3.7	1.1	100.0
	Q3	55.5	26.0	13.8	3.6	1.1	100.0
	Q4	55.3	25.4	15.0	3.3	1.0	100.0
1999	Q1	55.0	25.4	14.7	3.9	0.9	100.0
	Q2	52.8	25.7	15.9	4.6	1.0	100.0
	Q3	52.8	25.4	16.2	4.6	1.0	100.0
	Q4	51.0	25.0	16.8	5.2	1.9	100.0
2000	Q1	51.2	24.7	17.1	5.8	1.2	100.0
	Q2	51.6	25.1	17.3	4.6	1.5	100.0
	Q3	52.1	25.6	16.5	4.5	1.2	100.0
	Q4	51.1	26.0	16.5	5.3	1.2	100.0
2001	Q1	50.5	25.2	17.6	4.9	1.8	100.0
	Q2	51.1	24.4	17.1	5.3	2.2	100.0
	Q3	48.9	25.0	16.9	6.5	2.6	100.0
	Q4	44.9	26.0	18.2	7.4	3.5	100.0
2002	Q1	41.5	23.9	20.5	9.7	4.5	100.0
	Q2	38.5	26.7	20.7	9.7	4.4	100.0

Table 6

THE CML'S HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS

	Forecasts
	2001	2002	2003	2004
GDP, % change	1.9	1.9	2.9	2.5
Unemployment, annual average, 000s	970	959	987	1,006
Earnings, UK, % change	4.5	3.5	4.5	4.4
Base rates, annual average, %	5.1	4.0	4.9	4.9
House prices, annual average, % change	8	16	8	6
House prices, Q4, % change year on year	12	14	4	7
Transactions, England and Wales, 000s	1,457	1,560	1,475	1,450
Gross advances, £ billion	162	205	205	210
Net advances, £ billion	54	69	66	67

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Prepared 22 October 2002