Select Committee on Office of the Deputy Prime Minister: Housing, Planning, Local Government and the Regions Memoranda


Appendices to memorandum by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (HOU 22) (continued)

Table 5

INCOME MULTIPLES, FIRST-TIME BUYERS EXCLUDING SITTING TENANTS, UK

  
  
0-2.49
2.5-2.99
3-3.49
3.5-3.99
4 or more
Total
  
  
%
%
%
%
%
%
1985
Q1
76.5
20.3
2.3
0.7
0.2
100.0
  
Q2
75.5
19.9
3.6
0.8
0.2
100.0
  
Q3
74.6
20.8
3.7
0.7
0.1
100.0
  
Q4
72.8
22.7
3.5
0.7
0.2
100.0
1986
Q1
74.0
21.2
3.9
0.6
0.4
100.0
  
Q2
72.6
22.4
4.0
0.5
0.4
100.0
  
Q3
67.8
24.2
6.2
1.0
0.8
100.0
  
Q4
65.9
25.4
7.0
1.3
0.3
100.0
1987
Q1
68.9
23.1
5.5
1.5
1.0
100.0
  
Q2
70.6
22.3
5.6
0.8
0.7
100.0
  
Q3
68.5
23.0
6.2
1.3
1.0
100.0
  
Q4
65.2
24.0
6.7
2.1
1.9
100.0
1988
Q1
64.4
23.3
8.4
2.4
1.5
100.0
  
Q2
63.0
24.4
8.6
1.9
2.0
100.0
  
Q3
59.5
25.4
8.8
3.1
3.2
100.0
  
Q4
60.5
25.3
8.9
2.9
2.3
100.0
1989
Q1
62.5
23.7
9.1
2.2
2.5
100.0
  
Q2
60.3
24.5
9.2
3.1
2.9
100.0
  
Q3
55.6
25.5
10.5
3.7
4.7
100.0
  
Q4
53.9
26.5
11.7
4.7
3.2
100.0
1990
Q1
55.7
25.1
11.2
4.7
3.3
100.0
  
Q2
56.6
25.3
11.5
3.8
2.8
100.0
  
Q3
56.6
25.7
10.5
3.9
3.3
100.0
  
Q4
58.7
25.3
9.9
3.2
2.9
100.0
1991
Q1
61.1
23.7
8.9
2.5
3.8
100.0
  
Q2
60.0
24.7
10.3
2.7
2.4
100.0
  
Q3
57.5
25.1
10.9
2.8
3.7
100.0
  
Q4
57.0
26.5
10.7
3.0
2.7
100.0
1992
Q1
58.5
26.0
11.1
2.5
1.9
100.0
  
Q2
58.3
26.4
11.5
2.2
1.6
100.0
  
Q3
59.3
26.8
11.5
1.3
1.1
100.0
  
Q4
62.0
25.8
10.1
1.3
0.8
100.0
1993
Q1
59.4
27.7
10.9
1.2
0.9
100.0
  
Q2
58.1
28.0
10.7
1.7
1.5
100.0
  
Q3
56.3
28.3
12.8
1.6
1.0
100.0
  
Q4
57.0
28.3
12.6
1.5
0.6
100.0
1994
Q1
55.6
28.5
13.2
1.7
0.9
100.0
  
Q2
57.4
27.1
12.7
1.9
0.9
100.0
  
Q3
57.2
27.1
12.9
1.9
0.9
100.0
  
Q4
54.2
28.7
14.7
1.3
1.1
100.0
1995
Q1
56.7
26.9
13.8
1.9
0.8
100.0
  
Q2
55.1
27.9
14.9
1.5
0.6
100.0
  
Q3
54.5
29.0
13.7
2.1
0.7
100.0
  
Q4
56.3
26.7
13.9
2.2
0.8
100.0
1996
Q1
56.2
27.0
14.1
2.1
0.7
100.0
  
Q2
55.2
26.4
15.0
2.5
0.8
100.0
  
Q3
56.3
26.1
13.4
3.1
1.2
100.0
  
Q4
55.2
27.4
14.7
2.1
0.7
100.0
1997
Q1
56.4
25.4
14.4
2.6
1.2
100.0
  
Q2
53.5
27.3
14.8
3.5
1.0
100.0
  
Q3
54.3
27.7
14.2
2.5
1.3
100.0
  
Q4
55.2
26.5
14.3
2.8
1.3
100.0
1998
Q1
54.2
27.1
14.3
2.9
1.4
100.0
  
Q2
54.5
25.7
14.9
3.7
1.1
100.0
  
Q3
55.5
26.0
13.8
3.6
1.1
100.0
  
Q4
55.3
25.4
15.0
3.3
1.0
100.0
1999
Q1
55.0
25.4
14.7
3.9
0.9
100.0
  
Q2
52.8
25.7
15.9
4.6
1.0
100.0
  
Q3
52.8
25.4
16.2
4.6
1.0
100.0
  
Q4
51.0
25.0
16.8
5.2
1.9
100.0
2000
Q1
51.2
24.7
17.1
5.8
1.2
100.0
  
Q2
51.6
25.1
17.3
4.6
1.5
100.0
  
Q3
52.1
25.6
16.5
4.5
1.2
100.0
  
Q4
51.1
26.0
16.5
5.3
1.2
100.0
2001
Q1
50.5
25.2
17.6
4.9
1.8
100.0
  
Q2
51.1
24.4
17.1
5.3
2.2
100.0
  
Q3
48.9
25.0
16.9
6.5
2.6
100.0
  
Q4
44.9
26.0
18.2
7.4
3.5
100.0
2002
Q1
41.5
23.9
20.5
9.7
4.5
100.0
  
Q2
38.5
26.7
20.7
9.7
4.4
100.0


Table 6

THE CML'S HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS

  
Forecasts
  
2001
2002
2003
2004
GDP, % change
1.9
1.9
2.9
2.5
Unemployment, annual average, 000s
970
959
987
1,006
Earnings, UK, % change
4.5
3.5
4.5
4.4
Base rates, annual average, %
5.1
4.0
4.9
4.9
House prices, annual average, % change
8
16
8
6
House prices, Q4, % change year on year
12
14
4
7
Transactions, England and Wales, 000s
1,457
1,560
1,475
1,450
Gross advances, £ billion
162
205
205
210
Net advances, £ billion
54
69
66
67






























 
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Prepared 22 October 2002