Appendices to memorandum by the Council
of Mortgage Lenders (HOU 22) (continued)
Table 5
INCOME MULTIPLES, FIRST-TIME BUYERS EXCLUDING
SITTING TENANTS, UK
|
| 0-2.49
| 2.5-2.99 | 3-3.49
| 3.5-3.99 | 4 or more
| Total |
|
| % | %
| % | %
| % | %
|
1985 | Q1 |
76.5 | 20.3
| 2.3 | 0.7
| 0.2 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 75.5 | 19.9
| 3.6 | 0.8
| 0.2 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 74.6 | 20.8
| 3.7 | 0.7
| 0.1 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 72.8 | 22.7
| 3.5 | 0.7
| 0.2 | 100.0
|
1986 | Q1 |
74.0 | 21.2
| 3.9 | 0.6
| 0.4 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 72.6 | 22.4
| 4.0 | 0.5
| 0.4 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 67.8 | 24.2
| 6.2 | 1.0
| 0.8 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 65.9 | 25.4
| 7.0 | 1.3
| 0.3 | 100.0
|
1987 | Q1 |
68.9 | 23.1
| 5.5 | 1.5
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 70.6 | 22.3
| 5.6 | 0.8
| 0.7 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 68.5 | 23.0
| 6.2 | 1.3
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 65.2 | 24.0
| 6.7 | 2.1
| 1.9 | 100.0
|
1988 | Q1 |
64.4 | 23.3
| 8.4 | 2.4
| 1.5 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 63.0 | 24.4
| 8.6 | 1.9
| 2.0 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 59.5 | 25.4
| 8.8 | 3.1
| 3.2 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 60.5 | 25.3
| 8.9 | 2.9
| 2.3 | 100.0
|
1989 | Q1 |
62.5 | 23.7
| 9.1 | 2.2
| 2.5 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 60.3 | 24.5
| 9.2 | 3.1
| 2.9 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 55.6 | 25.5
| 10.5 | 3.7
| 4.7 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 53.9 | 26.5
| 11.7 | 4.7
| 3.2 | 100.0
|
1990 | Q1 |
55.7 | 25.1
| 11.2 | 4.7
| 3.3 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 56.6 | 25.3
| 11.5 | 3.8
| 2.8 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 56.6 | 25.7
| 10.5 | 3.9
| 3.3 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 58.7 | 25.3
| 9.9 | 3.2
| 2.9 | 100.0
|
1991 | Q1 |
61.1 | 23.7
| 8.9 | 2.5
| 3.8 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 60.0 | 24.7
| 10.3 | 2.7
| 2.4 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 57.5 | 25.1
| 10.9 | 2.8
| 3.7 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 57.0 | 26.5
| 10.7 | 3.0
| 2.7 | 100.0
|
1992 | Q1 |
58.5 | 26.0
| 11.1 | 2.5
| 1.9 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 58.3 | 26.4
| 11.5 | 2.2
| 1.6 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 59.3 | 26.8
| 11.5 | 1.3
| 1.1 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 62.0 | 25.8
| 10.1 | 1.3
| 0.8 | 100.0
|
1993 | Q1 |
59.4 | 27.7
| 10.9 | 1.2
| 0.9 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 58.1 | 28.0
| 10.7 | 1.7
| 1.5 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 56.3 | 28.3
| 12.8 | 1.6
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 57.0 | 28.3
| 12.6 | 1.5
| 0.6 | 100.0
|
1994 | Q1 |
55.6 | 28.5
| 13.2 | 1.7
| 0.9 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 57.4 | 27.1
| 12.7 | 1.9
| 0.9 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 57.2 | 27.1
| 12.9 | 1.9
| 0.9 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 54.2 | 28.7
| 14.7 | 1.3
| 1.1 | 100.0
|
1995 | Q1 |
56.7 | 26.9
| 13.8 | 1.9
| 0.8 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 55.1 | 27.9
| 14.9 | 1.5
| 0.6 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 54.5 | 29.0
| 13.7 | 2.1
| 0.7 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 56.3 | 26.7
| 13.9 | 2.2
| 0.8 | 100.0
|
1996 | Q1 |
56.2 | 27.0
| 14.1 | 2.1
| 0.7 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 55.2 | 26.4
| 15.0 | 2.5
| 0.8 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 56.3 | 26.1
| 13.4 | 3.1
| 1.2 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 55.2 | 27.4
| 14.7 | 2.1
| 0.7 | 100.0
|
1997 | Q1 |
56.4 | 25.4
| 14.4 | 2.6
| 1.2 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 53.5 | 27.3
| 14.8 | 3.5
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 54.3 | 27.7
| 14.2 | 2.5
| 1.3 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 55.2 | 26.5
| 14.3 | 2.8
| 1.3 | 100.0
|
1998 | Q1 |
54.2 | 27.1
| 14.3 | 2.9
| 1.4 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 54.5 | 25.7
| 14.9 | 3.7
| 1.1 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 55.5 | 26.0
| 13.8 | 3.6
| 1.1 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 55.3 | 25.4
| 15.0 | 3.3
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
1999 | Q1 |
55.0 | 25.4
| 14.7 | 3.9
| 0.9 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 52.8 | 25.7
| 15.9 | 4.6
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 52.8 | 25.4
| 16.2 | 4.6
| 1.0 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 51.0 | 25.0
| 16.8 | 5.2
| 1.9 | 100.0
|
2000 | Q1 |
51.2 | 24.7
| 17.1 | 5.8
| 1.2 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 51.6 | 25.1
| 17.3 | 4.6
| 1.5 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 52.1 | 25.6
| 16.5 | 4.5
| 1.2 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 51.1 | 26.0
| 16.5 | 5.3
| 1.2 | 100.0
|
2001 | Q1 |
50.5 | 25.2
| 17.6 | 4.9
| 1.8 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 51.1 | 24.4
| 17.1 | 5.3
| 2.2 | 100.0
|
| Q3
| 48.9 | 25.0
| 16.9 | 6.5
| 2.6 | 100.0
|
| Q4
| 44.9 | 26.0
| 18.2 | 7.4
| 3.5 | 100.0
|
2002 | Q1 |
41.5 | 23.9
| 20.5 | 9.7
| 4.5 | 100.0
|
| Q2
| 38.5 | 26.7
| 20.7 | 9.7
| 4.4 | 100.0
|
Table 6
THE CML'S HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS
| Forecasts
|
| 2001
| 2002 | 2003
| 2004 |
GDP, % change | 1.9
| 1.9 | 2.9
| 2.5 |
Unemployment, annual average, 000s | 970
| 959 | 987
| 1,006 |
Earnings, UK, % change | 4.5
| 3.5 | 4.5
| 4.4 |
Base rates, annual average, % | 5.1
| 4.0 | 4.9
| 4.9 |
House prices, annual average, % change |
8 | 16
| 8 | 6
|
House prices, Q4, % change year on year |
12 | 14
| 4 | 7
|
Transactions, England and Wales, 000s | 1,457
| 1,560 | 1,475
| 1,450 |
Gross advances, £ billion | 162
| 205 | 205
| 210 |
Net advances, £ billion | 54
| 69 | 66
| 67 |






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