Annex A
QUANTIFICATION OF
THE HEALTH
EFFECTS OF
AIR POLLUTANTS
BY REGION
John R Stedman, AEAT (NETCEN), 30/01/2002
The 1998 COMEAP report "The Quantification
of the Effects of Air Pollution on Health in the United Kingdom"
gives the figures for the numbers of deaths brought forward due
to air pollution listed in Table 1.
TABLE 1. THE NUMBER OF DEATHS BROUGHT FORWARD
(COMEAP, 1998)
| Pollutant | Year
| Population | Deaths
|
| PM10 | 1996
| GB urban | 8,100
|
| SO2 | 1996
| GB urban | 3,500
|
| O3 | Summer 1995
| GB | 700-12,500
|
The figures for PM10 and SO2 can be
updated using the pollutant maps and baseline death rate used
in the analyses presented in the September 2001 consultation document
on proposals for air quality objectives for particles, benzene,
carbon monoxide and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The results
are listed in Table 2.
TABLE 2. THE NUMBER OF DEATHS BROUGHT FORWARD (AQS, 2001)
| Pollutant | Year
| Population | Deaths
|
| PM10 | 1996
| UK | 9,708
|
| SO2 | 1998
| UK | 1,890
|
Tables 3 and 4 list the number of deaths by geographical
area along with the number of deaths per 100,000 population. The
number of deaths broadly follows the distribution of population
but is also influenced by the variations in pollutant concentration;
concentrations of PM10 are highest in London and lowest
in Scotland. Figure 1 shows the spatial variation in the number
of deaths per 1 x 1 km square for PM10 in 1996.
TABLE 3. THE NUMBER OF DEATHS BROUGHT FORWARD BY GEOGRAPHICAL
AREA FOR PM10 IN 1996 (AQS, 2001)
| Geographical area | Population
| Deaths | Deaths per 100,000
|
| Scotland | 4,999,349
| 649 | 13.0
|
| Wales | 2,842,204
| 425 | 14.9
|
| Northern Ireland | 1,682,631
| 256 | 15.2
|
| Inner London | 2,284,191
| 511 | 22.4
|
| Outer London | 4,528,848
| 929 | 20.5
|
| West Midlands | 2,557,156
| 450 | 17.6
|
| Greater Manchester | 2,471,683
| 408 | 16.5
|
| Rest of England | 36,020,697
| 6,079 | 16.9
|
| UK | 57,386,758
| 9,708 | 16.9
|
TABLE 4. THE NUMBER OF DEATHS BROUGHT FORWARD BY GEOGRAPHICAL
AREA FOR SO2 IN 1998 (AQS, 2001)
| Geographical area | Population
| Deaths | Deaths per 100,000
|
| Scotland | 4,999,349
| 77 | 1.5
|
| Wales | 2,842,204
| 62 | 2.2
|
| Northern Ireland | 1,682,631
| 61 | 3.6
|
| Inner London | 2,284,191
| 88 | 3.8
|
| Outer London | 4,528,848
| 182 | 4.0
|
| West Midlands | 2,557,156
| 76 | 3.0
|
| Greater Manchester | 2,471,683
| 107 | 4.3
|
| Rest of England | 36,020,697
| 1,238 | 3.4
|
| UK | 57,386,758
| 1,890 | 3.3
|
An analysis by geographical area has not been carried out
for O3 due to the additional uncertainties for this
pollutant, which include the possibility of a threshold concentration
for effect and relationships between urban and rural concentrations.
If such an analysis were to be attempted for ozone it would be
expected to show relatively fewer deaths concentrated in London
than for PM10.
Mr Brian Bender CB
Permanent Secretary
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
February 2002
|
