Supplementary memorandum by the DTLR (TYP
28F)
DETAILS OF
STUDIES AND
LOCAL MODELS
USED TO
DERIVE THE
TRAFFIC REDUCTION
FACTOR USED
TO REPRESENT
THE EFFECTS
OF URBAN
REGENERATION
1. The modelling for the 10 Year Plan of
the effects of urban regeneration was based on work done in the
preparation of the publication Tackling Congestion and Pollution
(DTLR, January 2000). For this, the Department commissioned consultants
W S Atkins to assess the effects of Government policies (particularly
those in the Integrated Transport White Paper) on national traffic
levels. In assessing the effects of land use policies, they were
assisted by Peter Headicar of Oxford Brookes University. An extract
(23 pages) from their report is attached.
2. The result of this research is an assumption
that land use planning policy contributes to lower traffic growth
by shifting development towards denser urban settlement and increasing
the density of those areas identified for rapid household growth.
For the 10 Year Plan, we assumed that such redistribution of development
was constrained within the population totals for each county in
the model's baseline (this scenario is known as LU3R in Atkins'
report).
ANTICIPATED CHANGES
TO THE
SPENDING PROFILE
OF THE
10 YEAR PLAN
3. The profile of 10 Year Plan spending
is currently being reviewed as part of the first report on the
Plan itself and the parallel work on the cross-government Spending
Review 2002. The outcome of these reviews is expected to be announced
in the summer.
4. However, the profiles have already changed
since the 10 Year Plan was published, The breakdown of public
investment expenditure and private investment for each year 2001-02
to 2010-11 is shown in tables A to D below, expressed in outturn
prices (previously given to the House in February in response
to a written parliamentary question). As the tables show some
funding has been brought forward to the early years for rail.
5. Total public expenditure on rail over
the first three years of the 10 Year Plan (2001-04), excluding
revenue support for private investment, is £8.9 billion compared
to the total rail for over the same period published in the 10
Year Plan of £7.5 billion.
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