Select Committee on Transport, Local Government and the Regions Appendices to the Minutes of Evidence

Further supplementary memorandum by the Strategic Rail Authority (TYP 45B)

1.  Which markets the 40-50 per cent growth in passenger kilometres will be between peak and off-peak and an indication of how much of this is expected to be mode-shift and how much newly generated trips?

  Peak and off-peak growth forecasts are only produced for London and the South East, as Strategic Routes and Regional services have less well defined peaks. Peak growth for London and the South East is forecast to be in the range of 14-20 per cent over 10 years, and off-peak growth in the area by 30-54 per cent, depending on the particular market conditions and planning developments within each franchise.

  For the network as a whole, a review of research on mode shift has indicated that between 30 per cent and 70 per cent of new rail journeys are diverted from the road network, depending upon the particular conditions of each franchise. The SRA is continuing to develop, in conjunction with the Highways Agency and other experts, this key area of research and review its approach to determining the most appropriate value to use in each particular case.

2.  A breakdown of how much of the Plan is attributed to each of the schemes identified on page 53 of the Strategic Plan

  As the SRA are in commercial negotiations with private sector investors on many of the schemes at present, it is not possible to provide a complete breakdown indicating how much of the Plan is attributed to each scheme.

3.  Why passenger kilometres rather than journeys has been selected as the target for the Plan and whether there has been a change from looking at journeys to passenger kilometres over the life of the SRA?

  The SRA's draft Directions and Guidance from the Secretary of State include the targets in the Government's 10 Year Plan. It would be for the Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions to explain why the target is passenger kilometres rather than passenger journeys. In our view, however, passenger kilometres is a better intermediate measure than passenger journeys of the contribution of increased rail use to the 10 Year Plan's wider goals of reducing congestion, greenhouse gas emissions etc. There has been no change as between passenger kilometres and passenger journeys over the life of the SRA.

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