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18 Dec 2002 : Column 842—continued
Terrorism
Q10. [86357] Dr. Julian Lewis (New Forest, East): What his latest estimate is of the risk of terrorist attack by al-Qaeda against the United Kingdom.
The Prime Minister: As I made clear a few weeks ago, barely a day goes by without some new piece of intelligence coming via our security and intelligence services about a threat to UK interests. Although we have had some significant success in damaging al-Qaeda's capabilities since 11 September and have thwarted a number of attacks, the terrorist threat against the UK and UK interests remains real and serious.
Dr. Lewis : Have not the attacks in Bali and Mombasa shown that al-Qaeda specialises in multiple, simultaneous attacks? Given that al-Qaeda cells are believed to be in place in Britain, was not it unwise of the Home Office to withdraw last month the serious warning that it rightly gave of the sort of attacks that we could expect here in the UK? Was not it a mistake to think that it was wrong to spell out the threats in detail because the British people might panic? The British people need to be warned of what they might expect, and I do not think that they will panic if they are told the truth.
The Prime Minister: Of course it is important that people be told, but it is also important that we make a balanced assessment of how much information we give and what we say along with it. It is not just a question of the information; it is the judgment we make as to the weight that can be attached to it. The hon. Gentleman will recall that, a few weeks ago, there were stories in the
newspapers about a possible poison attack on the tube. There was no specific evidence of such an attack, yet the information ended up causing, I think, unnecessary concern among people. It is a difficult balance to strike and we do our level best to get the balance right. However, it is important to realise that intelligence and information comes to us the whole time. If we published all of it, we would cause unnecessary alarm, so we must sift it and make a judgment. I believe that the judgments that we have made so far have been right and the circumstances in which that information was withdrawn were explained at the time.
Jim Knight (South Dorset): This week, Dorset police warned Christmas shoppers to be vigilant about terrorist attacks. Does my right hon. Friend share Dorset police's concern? What action has he taken to reassure constituents such as mine in Dorset about terrorist attacks?
The Prime Minister: It is important that people be vigilant, and this country has long experience of dealing with a possible terrorist threat from the IRA. However, it is important that we recognise that the terrorist threat could take many different forms. Although we are spending considerable sums on doing all that we can to protect ourselves against a threat, it is also important that we realise that there is a limit to what we can do.
Engagements
Q11. [86358] Mr. Tim Boswell (Daventry): Is the Prime Minister persisting in his policy of 50 per cent. participation in higher education by people between the ages of 18 and 30 before the year 2010?
The Prime Minister: Yes, we want to make sure that we get as many people into university as possible. We
have set a target of 50 per cent., but I agree entirely with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Education that that should be open only to people who pass the requisite standard. At the moment, 43 per cent. of the relevant age group go to university. Extending that to 50 per cent. will mean that there will be about 250,000 extra students a year. In the past four years, for example, we have had very nearly 100,000 extra students, so the target is not impossible. However, reaching it must not involve a drop in standards.Q12. [86359] Mr. Peter Pike (Burnley): My right hon. Friend will be aware that the two biggest problems in Burnley are the 4,500 empty houses and the fact that our main core budget is less, in real spending terms, than it was 11 years ago. The forthcoming housing renewal pathfinder project and new financial arrangements will help the area tremendously. However, will my right hon. Friend assure the people of Burnley that next year's transitional and bridging arrangements will enable Burnley borough council to tackle the two important problems that I outlined?
The Prime Minister: My hon. Friend raises an issue that is of great concern to people in his area and in other parts of the north-west where houses are lying empty or are falling in value. He will probably know that there is due to be a community statement at the end of January, which will set out the pathfinder initiatives to deal with the problem. The overall investment that the Government will put into housing over the next few years will mean that hundreds of millions of pounds more will be available. I hope that that extra money will play some part in enabling affected communities to rebuild themselves. Again, of course, that is all part of the investment that the Government are committed to putting in, and which the Opposition are committed to taking out.
Iraq
3.32 pm
The Secretary of State for Defence (Mr. Geoffrey Hoon): With permission, Mr. Speaker, I should like to make a statement on contingency preparations for possible military action against Iraq.
My right hon. Friends the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary, and I, have set out the Government's approach to Iraq on a number of occasions. That approach has not changed in any way. We are committed to the disarmament of Saddam Hussein's regime by ensuring its compliance with United Nations Security Council resolution 1441. Our primary objective is to achieve this by peaceful means. Saddam Hussein is being given every opportunity to disarm voluntarily.
We hope that he will take this opportunity to do so but, given his previous record, it would be foolish to assume that he will comply unless he faces clear and overwhelming pressure. That is why we must continue to present a credible threat of force.
When the House debated this issue on 25 November, and when it discussed it again at Defence questions on 9 December, I made it clear that we would continue with the prudent preparations and planning necessary for military action, should it be required. I said that we would continue to take appropriate steps to ensure that British forces were ready and had the training, equipment and support that they needed. What we are doing is ensuring that we have a range of military options available, should they be required. The House may, however, find it helpful if I set out again the work that we have put in hand.
As I told the House on 25 November, we have also been taking action to provide additional capabilities that may potentially be needed, either by bringing forward programmes which were already planned or by making new procurements against short time scales. As the House will recall, these measures include bringing forward the purchase of further temporary deployable accommodation, upgrading the infrastructure available in deployed field hospitals, improving battlefield ambulances, and enhancing the ability of our forces to handle and exploit secure communications. We are approaching the shipping market this week, to charter vessels that might be needed to move equipment and personnel. We are also acting on the lessons learned from Exercise Saif Sareea 2, particularly in relation to the Challenger 2 tank, the AS 90 artillery system, and desert clothing and boots. I can assure the House that we are working closely with industry to ensure that British forces will have the capabilities they need for the contingencies that they may face.
As I previously indicated to the House, we are also continuing to consider the number and mix of reservists who might be required in the event of military action and to ensure that the machinery and processes involved in mobilising reserves are ready to be used if and when the time comes. Relevant units and individual reservists will be informed of the possibility of being included in a call-out, should that become necessary. We will take steps to identify individuals who may have genuine reasons for not being available in the months ahead. Information will also be made available to reservists for their employers.
More generally, I have authorised a range of steps to improve readiness. This includes training, ensuring that the right quantities of equipment are available to those who may need them, as well as the procurement of stocks and spares. For some units it will involve a reduction in their notice to move. This does not mean that they are about to be deployed but that they will be ready to deploy at relatively short notice if required. I emphasise that the involvement of any particular unit in these processes does not mean that it will necessarily take part in any military action that may be required. The purpose of these preparations is to provide the necessary range of options, not a specific plan.
We have already announced the long-planned deployment of the naval task group 2003 in the new year, with scheduled visits and exercises in the Gulf and the Asia-Pacific regions from February to August. This is a routine deployment that happens approximately every three years but, like all maritime deployments, it remains available for a range of potential operations if required. The group will be led by HMS Ark Royal and will include the Type 23 frigate HMS Marlborough, the Type 42 destroyer HMS Liverpool and support from the Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels Fort Victoria and Orangeleaf. A nuclear-powered submarine will also be assigned to the group for part of its deployment. In addition, a mine countermeasures group, comprising HMS Ramsey, HMS Grimsby, HMS Shoreham, HMS Ledbury and RFA Sir Bedivere will deploy ahead of the task group to undertake a series of exercises and port visits in the Gulf region.
Further to those routine deployments, we are also considering the deployment of additional maritime forces early in the new year to ensure the readiness of a broad range of maritime capabilities, should they be required.
Finally, I emphasise once more that these are contingency preparations, aimed at increasing the readiness of a range of options. This process does not lead inexorably to military action. The use of force is not inevitable. However, as long as Saddam's compliance with UNSCR 1441 is in doubt, the threat of force must remain and must be real.
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