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11 Apr 2003 : Column 566—continued
Mr. Challen: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Horam: I shall carry on for a moment. I am about to blow my own trumpet.
We now have 12 extra police officers in Bromley. I am delighted about that. Having made my point I will give way briefly to the hon. Gentleman.
Mr. Challen: Is it not a fact that the Government had to go through the painful process of sticking with Conservative spending plans during 1997 and 1998? That led to a decrease in police numbers. I wonder whether the hon. Gentleman or any occupants of the Opposition Front Bench would describe what the total numbers of police are now compared with the situation in 1997. In Conservative Members' boroughs and constituencies police numbers are rising now year on year.
One small point: would the hon. Gentleman rather see jobs advertised in The Daily Telegraph rather than The Guardian?
Mr. Horam: The Times is trying to get into the market now.
I would point out to the hon. Gentleman that if we add the 12 new officers to the total force in Bromley, it is still below police numbers in 1996. In addition, two of the three police stations in Orpington have been closed down. Extra police officers are welcome, but they will not make a significant difference to the numbers of policemen who we can afford to deploy on the beat. People want to know about that.
My right hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset (Mr. Letwin), the shadow Home Secretary, made the point extremely well in a recent statement. He said:
- "Neighbourhood policing will also require a step change increase in the number of police officers available. The Government, after allowing the number of officers to fall during their first five years of office"—
- "have begun to address this situation. As at 31 March 2002, there were 129,603 police officers and the Government has a target of 132,500 officers by 2004. We believe that this increase, whilst welcome, is inadequate. If we are to take the matter of proper neighbourhood policing seriously, which we must if we are to tackle criminality and disorder, we need far more police officers than are currently being proposed by the Government. To implement the vision we must police our cities as intensively as the Americans police theirs"—
- "and provide true neighbourhood policing throughout Britain. We have calculated that this will require 40,000 new officers in England and Wales."
Mr. Willis: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?
Mr. Horam: I shall not give way because I have done so already.
If those police officers were added to those that we already have, Bromley would have 769 policemen compared with the current number of 427. We need such an increase to deal with problems of antisocial behaviour and to allow policemen to patrol the beat. The policemen could also be deployed more effectively.
Government Members and Ministers will ask how we would fund the increase. My right hon. Friend pointed out that such an increase of police numbers would cost approximately £1 billion a year. However, we have suggested introducing a policy of receiving a strict quota of asylum seekers and genuine refugees—my right hon. Friend suggested 20,000 a year. We currently receive 12,000 real refugees a year, as part of a total of 110,000 illegal immigrants. We could make huge savings through all the apparatus and bureaucracy of the current system, such as in the immigration and nationality directorate. I was astonished that while we spent £300 million on immigration and nationality bureaucracy in 1994, we now spend £1.8 billion a year. If we accepted my right hon. Friend's suggestion, we could reduce spending on the asylum problem to £134 million a year, thus saving about £1.6 billion a year. That money could contribute to the £1 billion that would be needed to employ more policemen.
Obviously, that would not happen overnight and transitional costs would be incurred. Everyone knows that it could happen only over several years. However, such a change of policy would make a significant difference to the problem of immigration, about which many people are rightly concerned, and would help to deal with antisocial behaviour and crime effectively.
I believe, as do all hon. Members, that we could and should have more effective public services. We are devoting the money that could achieve that, but the problem is that the Government do not have a clue how to spend it effectively.
1.17 pm
Geraint Davies (Croydon, Central): The hon. Members for Sevenoaks (Mr. Fallon) and for East Devon (Mr. Swire), neither of whom are in the Chamber, said that the growth targets were over-optimistic, but, if anything, I think that they are cautious. Anyone who studies these things will know that the world oil price has fallen by a third in the past month from just under $40 a barrel to $28 a barrel, and it is on the way to $20 a barrel. That is not only because production in Iraq is likely to come on stream, but because about 28 million barrels of oil are produced a day when only 25 million barrels should be produced for current demand levels. Unless the meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries on 24 April agrees to reduce production, there may be a major crash with oil prices coming down to as little as $10 a barrel.
There are several reasons why it might be difficult to reduce production. The Saudis want to maintain their production levels, although production has increased from about 8 million barrels a day in December to about 9.5 million barrels a day now. Saudi Arabia wants higher production to help to pay its people, who earn only about $7,000 a year each. Iran—and Nigeria and Venezuela, in which the strikes have ended—want to produce more oil, so there is reason to believe that the world price of oil will continue to decrease, which will speed up growth in the world economy. Consequently, I am comfortable with the growth targets announced by the Chancellor and I think that we will be pleasantly surprised by what happens.
The hon. Member for West Worcestershire (Sir Michael Spicer) mentioned the prospects for Europe. It is worth remembering, as the Chancellor did, that the overall package of growth, employment, interest rates and inflation rates is healthier in Britain than in the rest of Europe. We easily satisfy the stability pact criteria, which require borrowing to be less than 3 per cent. As I said in an intervention on the hon. Member for West Worcestershire, the problem with the pact is that Germany is not fulfilling the criteria and France is likely to ignore them. Our debt is so low because of our good stewardship of the economy, so if we broke the pact it would not really matter. The Europeans would be better off if they adopted our excellent models and the rules that the Chancellor follows, especially his golden rules. Let us consider the symmetrical inflation targets that the Chancellor introduced for the Bank of England. They are 2.5 per cent. inflation plus or minus 1 per cent.; in other words, we reflate if inflation is too low. However, the European Central Bank has a ceiling and no floor, which makes it inherently deflationary. That is another reason for our much better growth rates and perhaps for other nations to adopt our rules.
Finally, the European Central Bank's minutes are not transparent, whereas the Bank of England's are. That generates more confidence in the marketplace.
Mr. Pickles: That was an interesting analysis. Is that the reason for his council's reduction of £500,000 in the money for children's services, old persons, the physically disabled and learning disability services?
Geraint Davies: That is completely irrelevant to the global situation. However, as the hon. Gentleman has made that irrelevant point, let me explain the reality. In Croydon, we are spending an extra £10 million on social services—an increase of 12.5 per cent.—and investing more in them and in environmental services. As well as making an irrelevant point, the hon. Gentleman is wrong and I shall obviously not give way to him again.
I welcomed the Chancellor's comments about trying to encourage people to take on fixed-rate mortgages so that there is less of a problem with the different interest rates that are needed for manufacturing and exchange rates and for the tackling the difficulties of the housing market.
Let us consider full employment. It is worth making the point that London simply cannot afford to increase the number of public servants due to an inadequate London weighting. The extra cost of employing someone in the private sector in London is between 30
and 40 per cent. The public sector has not kept up. That means that we do not retain and recruit enough public servants in London whereas the opposite problem exists in the regions, where the private sector cannot invest because the public sector prices it out. The Government must consider that carefully.Professor Oswald of Warwick university and Professor Elliott of Aberdeen university prepared a couple of reports, which suggested that London weighting should be reviewed and uplifted. Many people who live in London experience problems through the need for more investment in transport, schools and the health service. Many journalists who live in London report that difficulties in London are replicated throughout the country. However, the experience of most people who live outside London is that schools and hospitals are improving and that things are going well. I hope that the Government will examine the differences carefully.
Some hon. Members have referred to local government settlements. I have sympathy with some of the comments. In London, the area cost adjustment between east and west is too great. Some boroughs might get 4 per cent. and others 8 per cent. Those issues are academic to some extent, but the bottom line is that we need enough funding.
Since 1997, Government money for Croydon has increased by approximately a third. We have therefore been able to employ many more teachers and teaching assistants. However, as has been said, we face difficulties this year and I hope that the position will significantly improve next year.
It is worth mentioning that a teacher in outer London gets £2,043 more than someone who does not live in London and that a new teacher gets 11 per cent. more. For a teacher who goes up to the middle ranks, that differential is about 7 per cent., and when she or he becomes a deputy head or a head teacher, it is about 4 per cent. I believe that the extra money given to teachers should not be a cash amount but a percentage amount, and that it should be more than this.
The reality is that we are recruiting young teachers from countries such as South Africa and Australia who stay for a couple of years, then go off into the regions, where they can get the same pay but a much higher real income, because they can afford to have a bigger house and to look after a bigger family. So we are recruiting people but they then leave. This raises two issues. One is the overall size of the London weighting; the second is the fact that it should be calculated on a percentage basis rather than a cash basis. I hope that the Government will look at that; the Chancellor referred to regional economies in his speech. The 40 per cent. pay claim by the firefighters seems ridiculous, but it is not so ridiculous in London. Public sector pay demands are being fuelled by the militancy of the unions based in London, because their members face such enormous costs. If such demands spread across the whole economy, it will pose a real threat to the macro-economic stability on which the Government rest.
I welcome the Chancellor's statement, both in terms of giving people in London a fair deal and of enabling the private sector to invest more readily in our regional
economies with a view to achieving full employment. I realise that these are sensitive and difficult issues, but I expect the Government to grasp the nettle and to ensure that we achieve economic growth alongside making investment in public services in a more even way across the country.
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