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Mr. Raynsford: There is some risk that we are getting into ever more complex hypothetical situations that hopefully will not arise. The principle that I want to focus on is that there must be a second vote and that it must allow a good opportunity for people living in areas with two separate tiers of local government to express their view about what is the best form of unitary local government. That should determine the outcome, subject to the caveats that I expressed. I hope that those will not be necessary in any circumstances, because the outcome is clear, but I can envisage circumstances in which it might not be. In such cases, our objective would be to act in a way that reflected the views expressed by people in two-tier areas and gave effect to the outcome that appears to command the greatest support.
I do not want to get into too much speculation about what might happen in extremely unlikely hypothetical situations. The hon. Member for Buckingham
delightfully conjured up the possibility of four separate options producing a dead heat. I sincerely hope that we never get into that situation.
Mr. Don Foster (Bath): The Minister is being very patient with hon. Members like me who did not serve on the Committee by rehearsing matters that he will have already covered on innumerable occasions. I listened with great interest to what he said about the possibility, which he considers likely in some circumstances, that turnout is so low in a particular area that a clear decision in respect of local government reorganisation is not made. Can he explain what would then happen as regards the decision to move ahead with regional government, given that 90 per cent. of people in the region that he mentioned might have supported it? Would the delay in local government determination in one small part of the region hold up the movement to regional government for the rest of its people?
Mr. Raynsford: I said that I could envisage the situation arising because there would be two separate electorates. I went on to say, however, that I hoped that it would not, because people would have as much interest in the future of local government in their region as in the future of regional government. My expectation is that there would not be a derisorily low vote in one ballot and a satisfactory one in the other. So yes, I did concede that it was a possibility, and that in that situation it might not be possible to proceed with confidence on the basis of the view expressed in the vote on the preferred option for local government reorganisation. However, I return to first principles: we have always said that the introduction of regional government must be accompanied by a move towards a wholly unitary structure of local government, so the issues must be taken together. It would not be possible to proceed to introduce an elected regional assembly without introducing unitary local government at the same time, so the two would have to run in parallel. There would have to be a decision on the local government issue before elected regional assemblies could be introduced.
Mr. Davey: I think that we need to press the Minister on this point. There would be plenty of time to run the second ballot on the local government reorganisation question while preparations for setting up the regional assembly went ahead pending the vote on the assembly. Surely we would not want there to be any delay while the second ballot took place.
Mr. Raynsford: I sincerely hope that that does not have to happen. We want a sensible way forward whereby people can express their view, first, on the merits of having an elected regional assembly and, secondly, on the preferred option for unitary local government in their area. However, we do envisage the possibility of circumstances in which there is not a clear outcome from either ballot, so the Secretary of State has to have the necessary degree of discretion to cope with those situations. That is what we have put into the Bill. It seeks to secure the outcome that gains the support of the majority of people voting in the regional referendum and the local government reorganisation referendum.
We cannot absolutely guarantee, however, that what secures the largest number of votes will be the outcome, because in some circumstances the level of voting may
be derisorily small and it would not be safe to proceed on that basis. In that situation, there may be a case for seeking a further referendum giving people the opportunity to vote again, or the Secretary of State might decide that the introduction of elected regional assemblies should not proceed. Those are matters for discretion, as I have made clear throughout our deliberations in Committee and this afternoon. I hope that the situation will not arise other than in extreme and exceptional circumstances.
Mr. Beith: I suggest to the Minister that what should happen in those circumstances is that if it has become clear, perhaps owing to a boycott or a minimal vote on the local government ballot, that the boundary committee has not come up with a satisfactory form of unitary government, yet the region has voted for an assembly, there is sufficient time—since the Bill to establish the powers will not have been enacted at that stage—to go back to the boundary committee to say, "Please come up with some alternative, more widely-supported proposal", which proposal can then be put to a vote. All that could be achieved before the key dates for the setting up of the regional assembly, and it need not delay its creation.
Mr. Raynsford: Unfortunately, the Bill as drafted does not contain the provisions that would enable us to go back to the boundary committee in that situation, so it is not possible to envisage doing so. I can understand the merits of the right hon. Gentleman's suggestion, but the Bill does not permit it. There would have to be a re-run of the ballots both for the elected regional assembly and for the local government element, and the whole process would have to be reopened. We simply do not have the power to go back to the boundary committee and ask it to make alternative proposals. We would therefore have to start the whole process again by inviting the boundary committee to review local government boundaries. I hope that the right hon. Gentleman recognises that while his proposal might be desirable in some cases, it is not a sensible or satisfactory way forward.
Joyce Quin: I, too, am worried about delay and somewhat concerned about what my right hon. Friend has just said. Will he give a sympathetic response in the case of a region showing a clear desire to create a regional assembly and ensure that it is not thwarted by what could be perceived as a minor problem of local government reorganisation?
Mr. Raynsford: That is exactly our intention. We do not wish a minor hiccup to frustrate the whole process. Perhaps I did not express well to the right hon. Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed (Mr. Beith) the undesirable consequences of having to re-run the process because of a minor hiccup in the local government element.
The more we look into the matter and the more we provide for different circumstances, the easier it is to envisage the extreme possibilities that have been conjured. If we become unduly preoccupied with that, we will lose sight of the main objective, which is to ensure an opportunity for people in the region to express, through a referendum, their view of the best
form of unitary local government as well as an opportunity for those in the wider region to vote on the principle of an elected regional assembly.
Mr. Edward Davey: It is important not to give parties who follow our proceedings the wrong impression. In some local government areas, people might boycott the local government referendum to hold up the creation of a regional assembly, thus operating a veto. The Minister would know that a boycott was simply a wrecking tactic. Would he use his discretion to prevent such wrecking campaigns?
Mr. Raynsford: I have already made clear to my right hon. Friend the Member for Gateshead, East and Washington, West (Joyce Quin) the Government's intention to make it possible for people to express their views on the best way forward through referendums on the principle of elected regional assemblies and local government reorganisation. We do not intend to give any comfort to people who have a wholly negative view of the process.
We oppose thresholds partly because they give people a perverse incentive not to vote: not voting might make it impossible to implement a measure that many people support but cannot be attained without the participation of sufficient electors to reach the threshold. We are keen to avoid such a perverse incentive and we have therefore resisted the idea of a threshold. We believe however that there must be some discretion for the Secretary of State to cope with circumstances in which participation is derisorily low—not through wrecking tactics—or in which the outcomes are so finely balanced that it is difficult to proceed with confidence. Such discretion must therefore remain.
We shall proceed to allow the intentions of the majority of people in the region—whether the whole region or the area affected by local government reorganisation—to determine the outcome.
Amendment No. 5 provides two versions of the preamble for the local government referendum, depending on whether there is a single ballot paper or two ballot papers. The Electoral Commission made it clear that its comments were based on the assumption that there would be a single ballot paper, and the Government would aim for that in most circumstances. However, we must also provide for the possibility of having to hold a further local referendum on its own if the result is overturned in the courts. We might also need separate ballot papers if the local government options are numerous—for example, when county areas are combined because one option crosses a boundary or when the options are especially complex. In the latter case, a single ballot paper with adequate provision for partially sighted people might be unwieldy and it would therefore be better to have two ballot papers.
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