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Dr. Whitehead: Will the hon. Gentleman complete the picture by giving the House polling data on the number of people who have indicated an interest in leaving the UK to settle elsewhere in the EU, and the number of people who have expressed an interest in leaving their abodes in cities to move to the countryside in the UK?
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Mr. Spring: I cannot offer that evidence to the hon. Gentleman. I am sure we could try to secure an answer for him, but perhaps his question might be more usefully addressed to some of the more affluent members of the Government Front Bench. It is not unreasonable to predict substantial labour flows should the freedom of
movement of workers be allowed from 1 May. If there is the possibility of emigration from the United Kingdom, I do not think that it in any way compares with the possibility of more substantial immigration. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman would not disagree with me on that.It is difficult to make a judgment. It is not simply that there might be some small detriment to our economy should that movement take place. One of the great hopes for enlargement is that it will allow the accession countries to build themselves up so that they are in a more viable position, something that we certainly wish to see. We want the effect of enlargement to be like the effect of the accession on Spain, which has been a considerable success story in many respects. We would not want it to have the same effect as the reunification of East Germany, which has experienced a tragic drain of brain power and youth from east to west.
It would not be desirable for the same thing to occur now. We certainly want to avoid any damage to the new members' economies, many of which were held back during the communist era. So some caution on the immediate granting of free movement of workers from 1 May 2004 would not be misplaced. We expect some adjustments for about two years and hope that things settle down when all EU members begin to enjoy the solid benefits of enlargement, which every hon. Member accepts in the longer run. None the less, it would be wise to have safeguards with a clear time period. Should fears of dislocation to our economies and employment systems prove groundless, national measures could always be lifted. In practice, the matter cuts both ways.
The Minister for Citizenship and Immigration (Beverley Hughes): I am listening carefully because it is important that we base our decision on the discretion on the best possible evidence and case. I want to be clear about what the hon. Gentleman is saying. Is he arguing for transitional arrangements on the free movement of workers primarily because that element will increase significantly the migration that might take place anyway as result of free movement rights more generally, or is he concerned about the impact on the UK economy? Is it, perhaps, that he is concerned about the potential negative impact of people moving out of the accession countries? Can he clarify which of those arguments he is using and on what evidence he bases his view?
Mr. Spring: With respect, I am astonished. That is exactly what I have been explaining for the past 10 or 15 minutes—[Interruption.] Well, I have cited those as possible problems and, because of that, advocate a period of caution, which other countries have favoured. Why does the Minister think that so many other EU members have secured those derogations? We do not know the effect of such movement, but I am sure she will agree that the very last thing we want to do is to create the situation, which I have cited as possible, that arose in East Germany where there was a considerable brain drain to the west, which was damaging. Equally, we want to ensure that a period of stability applies within those countries, especially in Poland where there is high unemployment, during the transitional phase while they are net contributors to the EU.
We do not know exactly what the effect will be. I am happy to concede that. Hopefully the Minister will provide the figures that her Department has so far been unable to produce, despite commissioning the report. I hope that when she responds she will apologise to the House for the way in which her Department has dealt with the matter. It is all very well for her to ask me such questions, but the House is interested in why the figures have not been produced because it is appalling.
Dr. Whitehead: The hon. Gentleman was at pains to point out that he had spent 10 or 15 minutes explaining in detail the circumstances of migration, yet he appears to be using, among other things, examples that relate to internal movement within a sovereign country, in particular Germany. Does he accept that there was internal movement within Germany before reunification, from north to south? Indeed, there has been internal movement within EU countries over a number of years. The example of the East Germans moving to West Germany, from one sovereign state to another, is not germane to the issue. It is, in fact, germane to a study of population movements within the EU as a whole. Perhaps he has some thoughts on that.
Mr. Spring: I was simply citing what happened in Germany and highlighting what happens when there is a juxtaposition between countries with far higher and far lower GDPs per capita. Of course there were cultural reasons for that movement, such as the German language, but had the hon. Gentleman listened he would know that I also cited reports, including opinion poll data, which suggest a considerable desire of people in many parts of the accession country states potentially to move. A number of our fellow EU countries sought derogations, but this country did not and the Government offered no reason for that. Perhaps that will be explained this afternoon. We certainly have not received any evidence thus far from the Government to explain why they took that decision. Whatever one thinks about the matter, the hon. Gentleman must agree that it has been a dereliction of duty on the part of the Government not to supply the evidence so that a proper consideration can be made.
Mr. Bercow: I am sorry that I missed the opening part of my hon. Friend's speech because it is only now that I am able to enjoy listening to his mellifluous tones. In the light of the evident apprehension of the Minister, does my hon. Friend agree that in responding to amendment No. 1 and in setting out the Government's position, it would help if Ministers would explain whether they are agreeable to the principle of a full debate under the affirmative procedure on the regulations when introduced and, if not, why not?
Mr. Spring: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for making that point. I hope that Ministers have taken it on board.
I emphasise that we are in the fortunate position that some of our EU partners are not taking advantage of the option for national measures. Others are taking advantage of the option of two years and others of seven. We have the opportunity to see all the possible effects play out in those partners' economies and employment. We could then take whatever action we
thought best. I believe that the Government's policy announcement was well meaning but premature. It would be wise of them to reconsider and wait a bit, as many of our European partners have done. Then they could take an informed decision, which would work best for us and for the accession countries' citizens. Hence the amendments.I cannot forbear from mentioning that a claim was made in the statement on 10 December that the Government have a "managed immigration agenda". If only. That is what we need. Does the Minister agree that free movement of workers from the accession states cannot simply be taken piecemeal but must form part of a broader review of how this country manages immigration? The sorry fact of the matter is that people in this country no longer believe the Government on so many of their announcements, not least on immigration. In the absence of that confidence, we do not want to see the rise of extremism on the fringes of British politics, something that we all detest. We badly need a joined-up approach, from health care to payment of benefits. If the people of Britain felt confident that the Government had proper control, community relations would be strengthened.
As it is, because of the incoherence of the Government's policy on immigration over the past two years, there has been a great rise in confusion and anxiety. We value the tolerant and liberal society that we enjoy and cherish in this country. It is one of our chief sources of pride in being British, but I know that some in Britain are concerned about the effect of enlargement in that respect. I repeat that a period of adjustment would allay those fears or show them to be groundless.
We must also consider the employment effects on the enlarged EU's new neighbours. As I am sure the Minister is aware, there are fears in Ukraine about enlargement's effects on seasonal labour—for instance, on Ukrainian citizens working in Poland. We will need a strategy to deal with the EU's relations with nations east of the Vistula.
Before finishing, I shall return briefly to a point that we touched on on Second Reading. It is likely that an intergovernmental conference will be launched this autumn. Again, there is some lack of clarity about the exact dates. I am aware that the Copenhagen conclusions state that the accession countries should participate fully in the IGC. That is indeed a worthy aspiration, yet in practice anyone who has spoken to officials in the Commission about accession Governments will be aware that until 1 May 2004 the accession countries will experience a grey zone or period of limbo in their standing in the EU. It is difficult to see how, during that period, their opinions will have equal weight with those of existing member states in the treaty negotiations.
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