| Previous Section | Index | Home Page |
Mr. Spring: There are 15 member states, by the way.
Beverley Hughes: Yes. A further three have yet to make any decision at all, including some of those the hon. Gentleman named, such as Italy and Luxembourg. They might well follow the lead that has been given by the UK and the other five or six countries that have already declared that they will not impose such regulations or seek the derogation. Almost half the countries have already decided not to impose transitional arrangements—some have yet to announce a decision—and so far, only four have said that they probably will, and they have not firmly committed themselves to a time scale. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman has conveyed his information from a position of not being fully informed, as opposed to anything else, but he is actually quite wrong.
Mr. Bryant: Will my hon. Friend furthermore not accept the line given by the hon. Member for West Suffolk (Mr. Spring) that the whole of the Conservative party is unanimous in its support of enlargement? The truth is that Conservative Members of the European Parliament lobbied against yes votes in several of the new member states that we hope will be joining next year.
Beverley Hughes: I understand entirely the point that my hon. Friend is making. On the wider issue of the Opposition's position on this question and the amendments that they have tabled today, the Governments and the peoples of the new member states will form their own judgment as to who their supporters in the UK are. By withdrawing the amendments, however, Conservative Members have an opportunity to make their position absolutely unequivocal on the extent to which they wish to welcome the acceding countries at the earliest opportunity and in the fullest way into membership of the European Union.
I should like to set out for hon. Members—particularly Conservative Members—the reasons, which we announced last December, why we wanted to give workers from the new member states the same rights to work in the UK as are enjoyed by existing EU nationals from the date of accession. That decision was
made for very sound reasons, and was the product of serious consideration across all Departments which concluded in that governmental decision. In terms of overall migration, clause 2 deals with only a very small part of the free movement of workers. In fact, that free movement will have only a marginal impact, in terms of the overall migration as a result of enlargement per se.As the hon. Member for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale (Mr. Moore) and others have acknowledged, the accession treaty provides that all citizens of the new member states will be able to enter the UK and other member states without restriction on 1 May 2004 and reside here freely. Preventing the relatively small number who want to come to work from doing so for any period makes little sense in the context of the UK, and it would have only marginal, if any, additional impact on migration as a whole.
My hon. Friend the Member for Caerphilly (Mr. David) rightly referred to the lessons from history and the previous enlargement. I accept that there are important differences between that enlargement and this one, but there are considerable similarities none the less. The lessons from that enlargement are, first, that the fears expressed then about its impact on total migration proved to be completely unfounded and, secondly, as he rightly pointed out, that one of the factors behind that was the impact on the economies of the acceding countries.
Despite what people may say in surveys of their aspirations to move, such as those pointed to by my hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Test (Dr. Whitehead), when they have the opportunity to work in their own country, family ties, culture and identification with country of origin prove to be far more powerful in determining what people do than the pull factors—the attractions of another country.
Mr. Spring: I take the Minister's point on the net impact of countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. Any concerns were not realised. However, I simply make the point that transitional arrangements were put in place when those countries acceded to the EU.
Beverley Hughes: They were, but they were also rescinded early. In the UK, they were not enforced beyond, as I recall, about two years, even though they were lifted after six. [Interruption.] Exactly, but that proves the point that they were not necessary. They were thought to be necessary then, but they proved not to be so. They were not enforced.
May I get to the substance of the decision that we have reached on immediate free movement of workers? That decision was not taken lightly, and we looked carefully at a number of factors beforehand. First, we considered the experience of previous enlargement, when the fears of mass migration from those three countries proved to be unfounded despite apocalyptic fears being expressed at the time. Secondly, we examined the body of research on the possible impact on migration post-accession following this enlargement, including by the former Department for Education and Employment and by the European Commission. Both predict that the number of people migrating across the Union will not be significant as a result of this enlargement.
We have also commissioned further independent research from University college London, which has been published today, to ensure that all the facts on
which we based our decision are before us. That research looks at literature surveys and the previous studies, which I have referred to, as well as making its own econometric analysis and prediction of the impact on migration as a whole.The hon. Member for West Suffolk has criticised us for the date of publication. I understand his point. We had interim findings from the research group earlier—in December—to enable us to take that principled decision, but the completion of the draft by the people from whom it was commissioned was finalised only this week and we were unable to publish the final report before today. However, I say to the hon. Gentleman that I am pretty sure that we said that the report was coming. We announced that to the media today, and his colleague the shadow Home Secretary appeared to know that it was being published today, because he phoned my private office and was given access to it. It has been published on the website, which was announced, and I am happy to ensure that there is a copy in the Library.
4 pm
I understand the hon. Gentleman's point. If we had been able to publish the report earlier we would have done so; but we made clear that it was on its way—and indeed some Conservative Front Benchers appeared to know that, and took the earliest possible opportunity of looking at it today.
Mr. Spring: As the Minister knows, we had an important discussion about this on Second Reading. It is a key element of what the accession process is all about. Irrespective of whether the report was published this morning and whether someone had sight of it yesterday or knew it was coming, the fact is that the timing is quite impossible. The Minister must accept that producing a report on a matter that is so hugely important on the first day of the Bill's Committee stage is absolutely disgraceful.
Beverley Hughes: I acknowledge that that has placed the Opposition in a more difficult situation than I would care to contemplate, but this is independent research, and when it came to exactly when it was to be published we were in the hands of its authors.
When all Members have had a chance to read the report, as well as research by the former Department for Education and Employment and the European Commission, they will observe that the predictions in the three documents about numbers and the overall impact of migration are very similar. It is predicted by all three that there will be only a small increase in the total number of those migrating from eastern to western Europe—whether to visit, to study or to reside—and that the number coming here to seek employment will be minimal. The research done for the Commission, for instance, suggests that within 30 years just 1.1 per cent. of the population of the current EU Fifteen will consist of nationals from the new member states. The current percentage is 0.2.
Let me now refer to the overall conclusions of a study combining the research by the Department and the Commission's research. It envisages a number of scenarios. The worst-case scenario involves some of the
differences between this enlargement and the previous one, referred to by the hon. Member for West Suffolk—in particular, differences in income and GDP. The study concludes that even if we assume that the countries involved are high-emigration countries, and also that convergence in GDP is slow, migration to the UK as a result of eastward enlargement is unlikely to be too great. The evidence that we have collated from existing—not new—sources suggests that net migration from the 10 accession countries to the UK will be in line with current migration.I repeat that that conclusion refers to total migration, most of which will result from the freedom of movement that is embedded in the treaty. The additional freedom of movement granted to workers from the date of accession will be minimal.
Having considered history and the research evidence, we considered our own domestic situation. As a number of Members have pointed out, many UK employers are experiencing shortages in sectors such as hospitality, construction, food processing and transport. The new member states will provide the range of skills and the supply of workers that many UK employers need. That point was well made by my hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Test. Those workers will also be able to contribute to our economy, and it will all be legal and above board. I think that is why both the CBI and the TUC support our decision.
Given those factors and given the wider benefits that the UK will reap from a positive message to the new member states, the only sensible option is to liberalise our labour markets from the point of accession. But, as was said by my hon. Friend the Member for Caerphilly we have tempered that gesture with safeguards. We do not expect it to happen but, if there were an unexpected negative impact specifically from the movement of workers, we would be able to suspend or to amend the regulations under the Bill in order to reintroduce restrictions, so our decision, based on a sound analysis of history, of research and study and of the needs of our labour market, poses no risk and is copper-bottomed by a safeguard in the legislation. It will bring us many benefits, which the amendments would cancel out.
Amendment No. 2 is contrary to the accession treaty, so it would be ultra vires. The accession treaty only allows existing member states to impose restrictions on workers for seven years if they can show the existence of a particular threat after five years have passed. At this stage, the restrictions can be only for a maximum of five years. The further two are only possible if, at that five-year stage, a particular threat can be shown.
Obviously, we cannot know what the position in May 2009 will be. That is why we have decided to maintain the right to reimpose restrictions on workers if the evidence shows an influx of workers at any time after accession. If after five years there is such a threat, we can still restrict workers for up to seven years from accession, as allowed by the treaty.
Amendment No. 4 would make the granting of free movement rights to workers from the eight relevant new member states dependent on reports being completed by Government Departments, listed in the amendment, on the expected effects of the regulations under the Bill. As I have made clear, the Government would not have made the decision they did in December 2002 on free
movement of workers if all those Government Departments had not considered fully the impact of such a decision on their work. They all concluded that the regulations would have a positive impact on the United Kingdom.The effect of amendment No. 5 would be to make my Department lay, apparently, regular reports before Parliament on the effect of the regulations under the Bill from May 2004 to 2011. The Department for Work and Pensions already closely monitors the labour market and will continue to do so. From next year, it will look specifically at the effect on the labour market of opening it to the eight relevant new member states from accession. It will use a range of data and information to see whether there is any disturbance to the UK labour market sufficient to justify reintroducing restrictions on workers in line with the safeguards in the legislation. The Department will also closely monitor other sources of information. The CBI, the TUC and other stakeholders, the sector representatives that we are in close dialogue with for other reasons, are already talking to us about how we can do that systematically. Therefore, amendment No. 5 is not necessary. I hope that the Opposition will not press that amendment, or the others.
There is one outstanding point: that made by my right hon. Friend the Member for Llanelli (Denzil Davies). As I have made clear, all Departments considered the impact of clause 2, including the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. I understand his point about Roma people but we do not expect enlargement to result in a flow of Roma people. As I have made clear, it will reduce the push factors that encourage people to leave their countries. We do not expect—he acknowledged that it might not happen—enlargement to lead to a large influx of Roma people.
If the Opposition press the amendments, I will ask the Committee to resist them but my hope is that they will not press them. I hope that they will join the Government and support the Committee on this important Bill, and that we send the most positive signal we can as a Parliament to the accession countries that we not only welcome enlargement but feel able positively to give them full rights as acceding countries from the date of accession. I hope that the Opposition will support clause 2.
| Next Section
| Index | Home Page |