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5.16 pm

Mr. Keith Simpson (Mid-Norfolk): It is a great pleasure to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Reigate (Mr. Blunt). He slept through my lectures at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, as did my hon. Friend the Member for Faversham and Mid-Kent (Hugh Robertson). Although he has probably disappeared for a wee dram, I think that the spokesman and military adviser for the Scottish National party was another of my boys. I like to spread my expertise widely. Someone on the Labour Benches is probably also among that group.

We heard 10 contributions in the debate and, in their own way, they were all interesting and rich. Their common theme was a genuine warmth and respect for our armed forces and the role that their personnel play. That is a most constructive and important tone.

It was a pleasure to hear the hon. Member for Blaenau Gwent (Llew Smith). It was like a walk down memory lane. He was like a first world war sweat trying to bring back happy memories of open warfare in 1914 before going over the top on the Somme. It was a pleasure to hear him talk about nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation. He is out of step with nearly all the main parties, but he has genuine heartfelt views.

The hon. Member for South-East Cornwall (Mr. Breed) is standing in for the hon. Member for Hereford (Mr. Keetch). I trust that nothing has happened to the latter in the Liberal Democrat reshuffle and that he has not been sent into the outer darkness. [Interruption.] The Minister mutters something naughty from a sedentary position.

It is interesting that the hon. Members for South-East Cornwall and for Vale of Glamorgan (Mr. Smith) both talked about ESDP as a means of conducting defence

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within more frameworks. The hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan suggested that it would enhance security and, without wishing to start more rabbits running, I must say that many in the House and, I suspect, Ministers as well are a little sceptical—to say the least—about that. The problem is that enhancement may take place to the detriment of the proven track record of NATO.

The speech of the hon. Member for Vale of Glamorgan was full of good old Welsh stump politics. He is a loyal supporter of the Government and, if I were in central casting, I would choose him to play someone speaking on behalf of the Labour party in the House of Commons in the 1920s or 1930s. It was great stuff.

My hon. Friend the Member for North Wiltshire (Mr. Gray) is a former Front-Bench defence spokesman. He spoke forcefully for his constituents at Lyneham. They know that they have a doughty fighter working on their behalf. He also raised important issues for members of the Territorial Army, including their conditions of service, their pay and the role of their employers.

My hon. Friend mentioned his essay on the use of the royal prerogative to go to war. I am happy to volunteer to mark it on behalf of the Royal College of Defence Studies—I am sure that it is worth a beta plus at least. He made a serious point about the role of Parliament, which I am sure that the House will want to debate on another occasion.

The hon. Member for Stafford (Mr. Kidney) spoke warmly in support of RAF Stafford and the base at Donnington. He raised an important point about logistics and the private-sector ethos of "just in time" that has been introduced into the armed forces. I have said in previous debates that "just in time" could become "just too late". Although "just too late" might cause business problems and loss of money in the private sector, it can mean something far worse in military operations.

I agree with the praise that my hon. Friend the Member for Reigate gave to my hon. Friend the Member for Faversham and Mid-Kent, who spoke warmly and with great knowledge about the military expertise of our armed forces and the danger of changing the balance in our armed forces to the extent that things that we take for granted, such as the heavier side of our Army, could be thrown out. I concur with his comment—I shall use my shorthand—that there is no doubt that throughout military history, sweat has saved blood. We reduce the training level of our armed forces at our peril.

The hon. Member for Aberdeen, North (Mr. Savidge) made a thoughtful speech about the origins of terrorism and emphasised the role of the United Nations. I do not agree with his comments about the United States of America—he is a little over-critical.

The hon. Member for Moray (Angus Robertson) spoke on behalf of the Scottish National party. He rightly said that defence was important and spoke up for the interests of the Scottish defence establishment. I shall perhaps leave the debate between him and Scottish Labour Members about Scottish independence for another debate.

The hon. Member for Ogmore (Huw Irranca-Davies) spoke mainly about the role of the United Nations but raised an important point about the limits of

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humanitarian interventionism. My hon. Friend the Member for Reigate rightly focused on the major problem of the relationship between resources and the commitments that the armed forces face now and, crucially, those that they will face in the next two or three years.

The debate takes place against the background of continuing operations in Iraq, the hiatus over the Hutton inquiry and the defence White Paper, which we hope will be published before the autumn. Post-conflict operations in Iraq are dependent on several factors that are beyond the control of the United Kingdom Government or, indeed, our armed forces. There is still no sign of Saddam Hussein, and I suspect that without his capture or death, elements in Iraq will be encouraged to continue the kind of conflict that they are carrying out. We are yet to discover weapons of mass destruction, and if we are unable to discover them it will continue to cause much scepticism among a large section of the British public. The final factor, of course, is the policy of the United States Government because we are the junior partner.

I shall say a few words about the Hutton inquiry. Yesterday, quite rightly, the Secretary of State said that he accepted responsibility for the actions of the Ministry of Defence and his departmental officials. I am old fashioned because I assume that the right hon. Gentleman is a right hon. Gentleman and that whatever the outcome of the inquiry he will take responsibility for those actions. More significantly, the inquiry has revealed in great detail the workings of modern government, which we would otherwise not have known for some 30 years. That raises questions about the way in which the Government conduct business. To an extent, we have seen government by sofa and informal relationships have perhaps led to decisions not being taken properly. That is something on which the Government and Parliament need to reflect.

My concern is that the Hutton inquiry, combined with the continuing failure to find weapons of mass destruction, has encouraged great scepticism among the public about British government, which should concern all of us—not just the current party in government, but the rest of us as well. There is great scepticism about the role and integrity of our major offices of state and our intelligence services. That concerns me because it may well be that in the next few months, or in a year or two, God forbid, the present Government or another Government come to the House and to the public with claims that there is a clear and immediate threat, and the public will be sceptical or will just not believe them. That affects not just the reputation of the present Government. It is a matter for all of us.

I turn to the defence White Paper that we expect in the autumn. It will be a crucial White Paper. Apart from anything else, it will test the Government's commitment to defence and it will—in the words of the Secretary of State—be about change,

"not change for its own sake, but essential change, modernization and new thinking in defence".

I shall take as my text not the speech that the right hon. Gentleman made to the House today, which was good up to a point, but rather bland. I recommend to all right

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hon. and hon. Members the lecture that he gave at the Royal United Services Institute on 26 June this year, which is the detailed version of the speech that he gave this afternoon. It is far meatier and contains far more interesting ideas. Obviously, it saved the policy-making civil servants having to compose two speeches. I shall focus on the earlier speech, which is the one that we should have heard today.

The speech is entitled "Britain's Armed Forces for Tomorrow's Defence", which I expect will be—surprise, surprise—the title of the White Paper. The right hon. Gentleman began his lecture by saying that he is frequently asked

"why are Britain's Armed Forces so consistently successful in the wide range of tasks they undertake?"

He comes to two conclusions in the lecture. The first—a point raised by many hon. Members—is the quality of our personnel and decisions taken by the MOD on how they are trained, organised, equipped and supported. The second is that the armed forces and the MOD are prepared to change and modernise. Most hon. Members would broadly agree with that, perhaps with the caveat that the MOD has a mixed track record on providing the resources for training, organising and supporting the armed forces, but I do not wish to be churlish about that.

I would add two other reasons behind the success of our armed forces recently. First, not only under this Government, but under previous Governments, our armed forces have got used to making do with just enough and just in time. They are supremely practical applied people. They take the Duke of Wellington's knotted string approach to dealing with military problems, but I suspect that, as my hon. Friend the Member for Reigate said, we are just about getting to the end of the knotted string.

Secondly, our armed forces are now trained to operate and fight jointly and multi-nationally, as successive Governments have emphasised. The UK has always been at its most effective when it has been in effective coalitions. His Grace the Duke of Marlborough and His Grace the Duke of Wellington knew how to work coalitions—the right coalitions, not sham coalitions.

In his lecture, the Secretary of State outlined the need to change and modernise across the whole spectrum of defence. He referred to military structures, headquarters, organisations, weapons, equipment and personnel. He spoke in greater detail about effects-based operations—that is, the ability to deliver critical effect at the right moment. What did the right hon. Gentleman mean by that? He stated:

"Measuring the capability of our Armed Forces by the number of units or platforms in their possession will no longer be significant."

Although that sounds good in theory, the problem for us as parliamentarians and, indeed, for the armed forces is that only through their deployment and operations will we be able to assess their capability. How will the MOD or the Treasury assess that capability? What comparative indicators can be used against other countries, let alone against the threats posed by international terrorists? I hope that that core element of the defence White Paper will be considered by the Select Committees on Defence and on the Treasury and by the Public Accounts Committee.

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The Secretary of State said:

"At the heart of effects-based operations are people."

We all agree on that. Those people will be required as never before to have initiative, flexible skills and state-of-the-art technology. Can the Ministry of Defence recruit, train and retain such high-quality personnel in a market where many in the private and public sectors will be looking for the same kind of people? That is an enormous challenge, and as yet I have not heard an answer to how it is to be done.

He said that there is a need to restructure the armed forces to deal with

"the more frequent demands of concurrent medium and small scale operations"

and to act as "multipliers of combat power". The logic of those changes will have an impact on our military organisations, including regiments—not their regimental cap badges, but the way in which they are structured—and on the way in which the RAF and the Royal Navy organise their platforms. I hope that the White Paper will provide some detail on how that will be achieved in practice. If the Secretary of State is correct about the tempo of operations, as I think he is, what impact will that have on service personnel and their families? More frequent operations in less traditional military units will place an even greater stress on armed forces personnel.

What does that mean for the defence budget? The Secretary of State claims that the 2002 spending review settlement provides an additional £3.5 billion and that the defence budget is rising. The Library assessment tells us that since 1997 the share of gross domestic product spent on defence has fallen from 2.7 per cent. to 2.2 per cent. The current financial position is that in real terms UK defence spending is about £1 billion less than in 1996–97. As my hon. Friend the Member for Reigate and other hon. Friends said, there is already a serious crisis in the defence budget without the major changes that the Secretary of State seeks. For the purpose of the debate, however, let us assume that £3.5 billion is the correct sum.

The Secretary of State says that that money has to be used for reform and modernisation. In his lecture, he said:

"But it would be a failure of ambition simply to invest the new money in new systems while carrying on as before with the rest."

He continued:

"So in the forthcoming planning round"—

this is the guts of the issue—

"I will be asking our Top Level Budget holders to think radically".

A dreadful keening noise was heard from the senior military and civil servants sitting in his audience, because they all know that "thinking radically" means: "There is no money in the pot, the Treasury is after us again, and you guys have got to come up with an answer that will make it look as though we are not cutting." He went on to say that their outputs will be delivered "partly by setting them"—wait for it—

"some stiff 'stretch' targets as they are known in the acquisition world."

However,

"These targets are not decisions. And this will not be a 'cuts' exercise."

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I do not know who wrote this, but I suspect that they could earn a tremendous amount of money in the private sector—in fact, they probably do.

The Secretary of State continued:

"The aim will be to give us options—planning flexibility. At the end of the process, we will make decisions. In some areas, investment will go down; in others, it will go up—perhaps significantly."

The House of Commons expects the Secretary of State not to repeat that verbiage in the White Paper but to give answers about what the stretch targets are. Will we have a decision or will there be a continuing exercise? Many of us suspect that the comments are cover for further cuts. That will be disastrous for defence spending.

I do not know whether the Minister of State will pick up a point that several hon. Members made about combating terrorism, especially in the context of ballistic missile defence. That is always a slightly embarrassing subject for the Government, not because of Conservative Members but because of Labour Back Benchers. Will the defence White Paper spell out in detail the programme in which the United Kingdom will participate in conjunction with our American allies and how much it will cost?

Several hon. Friends, including my hon. Friend the Member for North Wiltshire, mentioned my next point. The Government are rightly worried about a major terrorist incident in the UK. However, we are genuinely concerned about the lack of political direction and co-ordination at the heart of Government. The Prime Minister has an outstanding man in Sir David Omand in the Cabinet Office. He is a sort of Sir Maurice Hankey, but with a sense of humour. Despite the training and exercises that the Government have carried out, I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Faversham and Mid-Kent that public opinion, let alone our armed forces and emergency services, is neither psychologically nor operationally prepared for an equivalent of 9/11. I do not know how people can be prepared for such an eventuality, but the action that has been taken so far is not sufficient. I am especially worried about the role of the civil contingency units. We were promised greater details about that but they have not emerged.

The defence White Paper will be crucial. I applaud much of the Government's thinking—we cannot stand still and there must be change. However, I believe that the Government's comments act as a cover for their inability to deliver a budget to tackle current defence commitments, let alone the great investment in personnel that will be required to deal with network-centric warfare and all the major procurement programmes. Unless the Government can make a convincing case, they will fail to persuade not only Members of Parliament but the public who elected them.

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