Examination of Witness (Questions 340-359)
WEDNESDAY 6 NOVEMBER 2002
SIR WILLIAM
STUBBS
340. Would you not accept from the point of
view of perception and credibility—and we are talking about
a very small number here, you have made that clear and we must
keep these things in perspective but, having said that, we are
discussing this issue because there is an issue of confidence,
to put it like that—that perhaps one of the key issues is
if there were standards there they were not recognised enough,
which is one of the main problems, and there was not a general
acceptance of standards, which is why we had this slight drift.
Would you accept there is any truth in that statement at all?
(Sir William Stubbs) I repeat yet again standards
were absolutely clearly defined. The demand at A2—and that
is different—one attempted to do that as best one could.
I see when you asked Ken Boston last week on that he came as a
freshman to QCA and he did everything he could to make a clear
statement about the A2 standards and how the AS standard related.
He said " We did everything we could to provide rich, meaningful
statements about grades in all the subjects". So in an ideal
world but an unreal world when you are introducing a new examination
you would like to have papers in front of you but we could not
have them. That will not recur. That is why I think when you look
back you see that problem but when you look forward it will have
diminished considerably.
341. You think therefore this will be a non-issue
in a year's time? Put it this way, on the general acknowledgement
of standards, will it be easier to acknowledge the standards?
(Sir William Stubbs) It will be easier to acknowledge.
I think there will be a wider acceptance of it by young people
themselves. They will also see increasingly the universities are
more at ease with it, employers themselves make more reference
to it and I think the troubled waters and choppy waters will have
settled down. However, there are responsibilities that must be
fulfilled and when there are worries expressed about standards,
it is incumbent upon those who have responsibilities in these
areas not to buckle but to stand firm, difficult though it may
be. When this storm was blowing, when I heard that the head of
news at the DfES, D J Collins, and the political media cannot
adviser, Chris Boffey, were saying that the QCA was `dead in the
water' and all these other remarks, that was absolutely wrong.
The instinct should be to support the regulator until proven wrong
and not to find a scapegoat. Therefore confidence is about exercising
responsibilities as well as spreading knowledge.
Valerie Davey
342. You have clearly outlined the directive
that came from the DfES. Did any directive come from the universities
to the QCA?
(Sir William Stubbs) We would not accept, forgive
me, a directive from the universities in those terms. The directive
which the Secretary of State was giving us, in Mr Baron's terms,
were our marching orders.
343. What was the relationship then?
(Sir William Stubbs) The relationship with Universities
UK was different. They gave evidence to the original paper on
Curriculum 2002 and they gave that not to us, they gave that to
the department. That was taken into account by the Minister at
the time, Tessa Blackstone and how it weighed on her, and indeed
in detail what they said, I could not answer to that. I have not
seen anything coming from the universities certainly passing my
desk at QCA, and I am unaware of anyone else's desk, about anxieties
about what was meant by an AS or what was meant by the new A-level.
Individual academics from universities are involved at various
stages. They are certainly involved in the examining bodies and
they are involved in some of our committees dealing with qualifications
and so forth, but we had no formal representation from Universities
UK or any other body, with one exception I will come back to,
expressing concern about standards. The one exception was to do
with those in universities which have a professional interest
in the standard of mathematics. When AS was introduced last year
the AS examination was thought to be too difficult and as a result
a disproportionate number of young people in comparison with previous
years failed to get an AS. As a consequence of that, fewer carried
on into the second year to go to the full A-level and that caused
widespread concern among universities. I was just about to enter
into a series of meetings with mathematicians from the Royal Society
and mathematicians from the universities about how we could carefully
and sensitively redress that misjudgment of grading on those courses.
Other than that I do not recall anything.
344. Was there a formal mechanism for a university
or a group of universities—Universities UK—to approach
QCA?
(Sir William Stubbs) There was no standing committee
that met regularly throughout the year. Chairman, that did not
happen. But what does happen is organisations—and I mentioned
the maths one but there are others concerned with vocational qualifications—from
time to time enter into a series of discussions with us about
aspects of the qualifications. If Universities UK had wanted to
do that then the door was open.
345. It has occurred to me over the discussions
that we have been having on the subject that the difference between
A-levels and any other exam is the fact that it is the entry into
university. That is why parents and students are so sensitive
about it and why the grade differential is so crucial. It does
seem to me that universities are an element within that equation
that perhaps we have not given enough attention to. Would you
agree with that?
(Sir William Stubbs) When you say universities, who
do you mean?
346. Universities UK.
(Sir William Stubbs) Do we mean vice chancellors?
Universities UK is an organisation comprising vice chancellors,
they are the only ones who are represented. Do we mean admissions
officers? They are the ones that deal with individual students'
applications. There is complexity around the voice of the universities
and if you went into Universities UK and asked for a unanimous
decision on this matter we might be here for some time.
Jonathan Shaw
347. Like most things.
(Sir William Stubbs) Because of course they take different
views. Indeed, some of them are giving conditional places not
on A-level but on ASs in the year that has just started.
Mr Chaytor
348. Sir William, earlier you quoted correspondence
from the HMC calling for a small but significant rise in the results
in the first year of the new system. I am unsure as to your view
about that. Did you imply that you were considering the 4.5% rise
in overall passes and 2.1% rise in A grades to be small but significant,
but that that is acceptable?
(Sir William Stubbs) Two and a half years ago if we
had been able to say that we are not fixing the results but it
is going to come out as 4.5, I think they would have been quite
relaxed.
349. So you are content with the outcome?
(Sir William Stubbs) I am content with the outcome
because I have seen no evidence that young people's achievements
have been artificially downgraded in order to meet some mythical
and arbitrary boundary.
350. Why then were all three of the examining
boards convinced that the message from the QCA was clearly that
there should not be a rise in the results and the pass rate in
the first year of the new system and particularly, from my recollection
of the evidence session with them, the Chief Executive of AQA
quoted a series of meetings with the QCA and a series of letters
from QCA making it clear that there should not be a rise in the
pass rate because that would be deemed to be pretty unacceptable.
(Sir William Stubbs) I do not think there were any
letters from QCA saying there should not be a rise in the pass
rate, not at all.
351. We need to return to the transcript of
the evidence session with the exam boards.
(Sir William Stubbs) Return to wherever you want,
but there was no letter from the QCA saying that. What I read
out to you was the QCA was saying that we expect any increase
in standards to be as a result of increased attainment by young
people, absolutely square and on the record. As far as you asked
me—
352. So you are saying that either in correspondence
or in meetings with the examining boards—and again my recollection
from the transcript last week was that there was a series of meetings
the last of which was 9 August, there was no steer whatsoever
or any steer that could have been interpreted in this way to say
that an increase in the pass rates would be unacceptable?
(Sir William Stubbs) Not only, Chairman, am I saying
it but the people you cross-examined last week said it. The Chairman
of the Joint Council said she was quite satisfied with the letters
that she had got clarifying it in April and she thought as far
as the meeting in July was concerned there was no pressure put
on to go to any artificial targets and that has been echoed, indeed
Tomlinson found that, so I cannot possibly concede that.
Chairman: Can I just intercede for a
moment. I think that David is really referring in part to a letter
you sent to Kathleen Tattersall on 19 April 2002. The middle paragraph
says: "I am conscious of the importance of that candidates
(reading as to the words). . . judgments about, however in this
summer's A-level awards the change to new specifications means
that boards have less evidence to assist them than in normal circumstances.
In this situation I do expect last year's A-level results to provide
a very strong guide to this year's outcomes." Is that what
you are particularly concerned about?
Mr Chaytor
353. I did not have the text to hand but that
is precisely what I recall from last week's evidence session.
(Sir William Stubbs) In the evidence to you last week
Kathleen Tattersall said, I think in response to a question from
you, Chairman: ". . . as far as AQA was concerned, that [letter]"—my
letter—"clarified the issue, we were all talking the
same language; we were not talking about outcomes being the same,
we were talking about judging the evidence on the basis of what
candidates actually did in the examination."
354. So again you are reiterating there was
no steer whatsoever that a rise would be unacceptable but a clear
steer that if there was a rise it should be on the actual achievement
among students.
(Sir William Stubbs) I am not sure about the first
part of your question but the second part is absolutely right;
any increase in the numbers passing or any increase in those getting
the higher grades had to be rooted in the evidence of what the
candidates did.
355. Therefore do you agree with the conclusions
of the interim report from Tomlinson saying that the roots of
the difficulties lay in the different perceptions that the exam
boards had of the steer given by the QCA?
(Sir William Stubbs) What he said was—and by
the way he must have arrived at his judgment on the basis of two
days or three days of intensive work as he was asked to report
within a week for that interim report—the letters from me
were perfectly proper for the regulator to send. I was charged
to maintain standards and I did that, and those who received the
letters have given evidence that that is perfectly reasonable,
and I was doing what was expected of me. I have no difficulty
in saying that ; those letters are on the record and I stand by
them.
356. In terms of your guidance both the content
and the process of issuing guidance, was it different this year
from the previous year?
(Sir William Stubbs) You bet it was different this
year from the previous year.
357. So the QCA took more of an interest?
(Sir William Stubbs) The QCA took more of an interest
and there were a lot of people expecting us to take more interest
this year in how the system worked; in terms of markers, the number
of centres, was there a proper system for corresponding with them
and handling their concerns, the training of teachers and so forth.
358. I understand all that but in terms of the
outcomes this year, did you take a more detailed interest in the
outcomes than you had in previous years?
(Sir William Stubbs) There are two points in this.
One is when I gave advice—and that is in March you have
quoted from that—that has been shown to be in keeping with
the duty of the regulator. The second was when they came to us
in July—they came to us, we did not go to them—because
they were seeing a pattern emerging in AQA which they were uncertain
whether it was being replicated across the other two bodies and
they wanted to meet the other two bodies, indeed the other four
bodies because I think the Irish and Welsh attended, and then
having met them they wanted to share that with us. They then said
to me, "Does this cause you concern?" I am on the record
as saying to each of them, 'Have you abided by the code of practice?
Are you satisfied that the grades that have been given are on
the basis of the evidence?" They all assured me yes and we
went away. I did say if the increase of overall pass rates—I
was not concerned about the proportion getting grade As—is
maintained (and it was then thought to be about a 3% increase
in the pass rate and it turned out to be 4.5%) I felt we would
probably have to have an inquiry to satisfy ourselves that standards
had been maintained. That caused the three English awarding bodies
some anxiety because they said if you do this—this crisis
of confidence matter—you will worry the world outside.
359. Could I interrupt you because this seems
to be a slight contradiction. You were saying earlier that you
were entirely happy with the 4.5% increase and now you are saying
you told the examining boards if the pass rates increase above
a certain level there will need to be an inquiry.
(Sir William Stubbs) I did not say above a certain
level.
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