APPENDIX 7
Supplementary memorandum submitted by
Mr Martin Hancox (P6A)
Further to your Oral Evidence meeting of the
10th inviting additional comment and since the content discussed
and reported since in the farming press is equivocal, can I make
just four points which will be UNPALATABLE, yet unavoidably "True":
1. Cattle TB is OUT OF CONTROL, and is back
to 1960s levels, so 50 years progress has been thrown away (9,000
cases 1962, 23,000 last year; distribution whole of UK again and
spreading, since two to four year test areas now in effect five
to seven years without checks).
2. From 1960 annual tests and movement ban
into TB-free areas as they became clear achieved 1979 low point
89 herds/600 cases, WITHOUT any badger culls (limited cull 1975
on in Glos. i.e. where "first" TB badger found, not
worse Cornwall/Devon areas).
3. This systematic annual testing and movement
ban—as outlined in prior memo & the 2000 Report—will
all have to be done again. And any compromises will simply
make progress slower, more expensive long term. It will be harder
this time as herds are larger, even more stock movement.
And there are No Alternatives. The IFN
test only sanctioned by EU as a backup, is useful in big problem
herds, IFN, vaccines (still 10-15 years away), badger RTAs and
other "Research" are ALL Red Herrings. Some 35,000 herds
tested / year pre F M D, third of national herd is the minimum;
last year only 43,000 tests and a 9,000 herd backlog won't be
cleared until summer 2003. At least some staggered annual tests
needed in 2-4 year areas to begin to locate new hotspots eg in
intensive dairying Cheshire, Lancshire . . . paramount
to "get ahead" of spread as opposed to merely playing
catch-up with current "autumn package" measures.
4. Britain's very successful TB Cattle scheme
from the 1960 launch will have to be endured again, and will take
at least a decade to "bite". No badger culls involved,
as indicated in main memo, any badger contribution tiny (or nil),
no badger inter"vention will ever be practical, or cost-effective.
That is all the Krebs/Bourne trial will come up with by 2007:
scrapping the trial now would release some £30-35 million
infinitely better spent catching up on cattle testing (and not
likely to be available from treasury otherwise). Personally, since
neither dairy or beef production is really economic now, I'd advise
farmers to get out now rather than endure another decade of TB
shambles orchestrated by the inept DEFRA/ISG.
18 February 2003
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