APPENDIX 8
Memorandum submitted by Dr R A Snowdon
(S16)
1. It is clear that the electronic revolution
is likely to have a more significant impact than most of us can
imagine. The increase in micro-chip density predicted by Moore's
Law means the effective quadrupling of the power of computation
every 24 months. Experts predict that by the year 2020 a $1,000
personal computer will match the speed and capacity of the human
brain and of the brain power of the whole United States by 2048[1].
These and other related effects are factors in the exponential
growth of human created technology based on the computer in its
many and various forms.
2. There should be absolutely no question
that every citizen in this country, whether living in urban or
rural areas, should have access to the full benefits of this rapidly
growing electronic revolution. The consequences of NOT doing this
will be to create a "disconnected" class of people in
those areas where access is not provided. This will be reflected
in limitations in their rights as citizens of this country (access
to services, participation in the whole range of democracy, etc)
and produce bad effects on the economies of disconnected areas
(typically rural) as business and society become totally dependent
on the electronic infrastructure.
3. Historically cities developed as centres
of communication, services and commerce because of the physical
properties of the necessary infrastructure. The electronic revolution
removes these physical barriers and allows the wealth creation
of communities and increased quality of life to be available everywhere;
but only if the infrastructure is provided to all and everywhere.
"Communities" will also not be physically constrained,
with societal and commercial advantages both within and beyond
national boundaries.
4. In order for UK companies to compete
in the electronic future they must be immersed within it. Future
generations must likewise be brought up and educated in a world
where these technologies and the opportunities they provide are
basic givens. Necessarily this means that provision of the underlying
capabilities (the "infrastructure") must be universal
or else the divide between the "haves" (both in the
UK and elsewhere) and the "have nots" will be significant
factors in structuring society and devaluing those rural areas
and communities which are deprived of their participation in the
newly enabled social and commercial structures. This process will
accelerate, so making the gap ever wider.
5. We now take for granted that in 99.99%
of the country there is access to a telephone and to television.
The coverage for digital interactive television and for mobile
phones is rather less, but still high. High coverage values nearer
to that currently achieved for television and telephone should
be the basic targets for the coverage to be provided for the electronic
infrastructure broadly identified with the label "broadband".
6. There are different technologies by which
broadband capabilities may be provided—just as there are
different technologies for the delivery of telephone services.
It is the quality and availability that are important. There should
be no short cuts, or else rural areas will be seriously disadvantaged
with consequent losses and movement of people and wealth to those
areas where qualities are higher. In a crowded country such as
the UK this would be sheer folly and a disregard of the positive
contribution these technologies will enable. By not providing
proper levels of capability universally there will be impacts
on other services and things like transport, one of the physical
factors that currently has such an enormous impact on our society.
Why travel to services rather than have the services delivered
to you directly.
Dr R A Snowdon
7 February 2003
1 The Age of Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil, Phoenix,
1999 Back
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