Instability in the Arab and broader
Islamic world
192. In our Seventh Report, we argued that "For
the war against terrorism to succeed in the long run, many of
the new allies must address internal problems affecting their
economies and societies." We cited evidence suggesting that
a dangerously high level of popular discontentment in many Arab
countries contributed to the growth of anti-Western groups such
as al Qaeda. According to Dr Rosemary Hollis, the relative quiet
of the "Arab street" in the war against terrorism was
a sign of political repression: "all forms of assembly in
almost every Arab country are forbidden, so to assemble and demonstrate
... is very difficult to do."[258]
As a consequence of the absence of political liberties, dissent
is focused in the mosque or through the Internet. Dr Hollis argued
that al Qaeda activism and terrorism should be interpreted as
"an expression that ultimately emanates from the Arab street."[259]
193. A US-led war with Iraq could have a substantial
impact on already tense and unstable societies in the Arab and
Islamic world. Sir Harold Walker told us that "Arab leaders
have used pretty powerful language in forecasting disaster"
in the event of a war. Sir Harold had noted Egyptian President
Mubarak's comment of 27 August that "If you strike Iraq ...
while Palestinians are being killed by Israel ... not one Arab
leader will be able to control the angry outburst of the masses."
He also reminded us that "The Omani foreign minister talked
of plunging the world into chaos. In public at least some responsible
Arab leaders see a very bad situation."[260]
In Sir Harold's own view, the "only place I would really
worry about would be Jordan, depending on what the King was perceived
to have done in helping an American assault."[261]
194. Lord Wright felt that public reactions to a
war with Iraq would depend substantially on the length of the
campaign: "if it is a quick, clean action—and I have
no idea how that can be achieved—then I believe that the
regional response can probably be held under control." However,
a longer campaign could give rise to "a serious danger of
real problems on the streets of the Middle East and perhaps more
widely"[262] including,
we add, Western Europe.
195. War in Iraq would make the battle against al
Qaeda even more difficult. Steven Simon, who is a former Senior
Director for Transnational Threats in the US National Security
Council, wrote to us that any war with Iraq would "be seen
by many Muslims, especially militants, as evidence of the systematic
conquest of the Muslim world that al-Qaeda theoreticians—and
many others—allege is taking place."[263]
Sir Harold Walker agreed that people in the Arab world would likely
see a US-led war against Iraq as "wrongly, as one of a series
of American assaults on Muslim people, forgetting that the Americans
have helped Muslim people in, for example, Kosovo."[264]
196. War could increase the likelihood of al Qaeda
attacks in the short run, and might also increase the pool of
al Qaeda recruits. Mr Simon judges that war with Iraq would "spur
a surge in attacks against US, UK and French assets" in the
Middle East and Gulf region, "as well as opportunistic attacks
against Westerners elsewhere. British diplomatic missions abroad
will be at risk as well as areas or sites frequented by British
tourists, who are perceived by the militants as defying local
mores and tempting local Muslims to transgress religious laws.
Businesses that are believed to be British may also become targets
of spontaneous violence as well as terrorist attack. British military
personnel will also be subject to risks on par with the one they
faced at the height of violence in Northern Ireland."[265]
197. If the war were prolonged, Steven Simon estimates
that—as a consequence of the perception that the United
States is attacking the Islamic world—the pool of al Qaeda
recruits would increase, "not only in remote areas, but within
the UK and Europe." Mr Simon points out that recruitment
by al Qaeda has been quite vigorous in the 1990s. A "war
against Iraq will generate an increase in conversions from either
moderate to more radical Islam practice, or from Christianity
to Islam in local mosques and within HM prisons."[266]
This could lead to an increase in the threat of terrorism inside
Britain.
198. The Foreign Secretary seems surprisingly unconcerned
by the potential threats discussed above. He accepts that "there
will be international terrorist organisations, particularly Islamic
terrorist organisations who claim Islam to themselves which seek
to exploit any situation where military action is taken against
an Islamic country ... they sought to exploit ... military action
being taken against the Taliban in Afghanistan in order to free
a Muslim country, as they did military action taken to free another
Muslim country, Kuwait, in 1991 and to free Muslims in Kosovo
in 1998." However, Mr Straw is confident that "If [military
action] is justified, we will be able to justify it"[267]
to critics in the Islamic world.
199. To substantiate this level of confidence, Mr
Straw explained that he has a "very, very large Muslim population
myself in my own constituency. I remember the anxieties of people
over Kosovo and even more so in respect of Afghanistan ... What
I also say to my Muslim friends is look at the record of Saddam
Hussein."[268]
Mr Straw also told us about initiatives such as the FCO Islamic
Media Unit, and the high level of Arabist expertise in the FCO,
both of which should, in his view, help to ensure that the Government's
message in the Islamic world is communicated effectively.
200. We do not share Mr Straw's confidence that,
in the event of military action against Iraq, the United States
and the United Kingdom would be able to justify such action to
the satisfaction of the 'Arab street.' The Foreign Secretary has
presented a case for robust action to enforce Iraqi disarmament
which seems reasonable enough to many British citizens, but which
will likely appear less so to disaffected young people in Egypt,
Yemen or Saudi Arabia—especially if, as is likely, images
of Iraqi civilian casualties are broadcast by the al Jazeera
television station and other pan-Arab news services. We
recommend that the Government treat seriously the possibility
that a war with Iraq could trigger instability in the Arab and
Islamic world, and could increase the pool of recruits for al
Qaeda and associated terrorist organisations there and in Western
Europe.
227 
