Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witness (Questions 60 - 79)

TUESDAY 11 FEBRUARY 2003

DR ALI ANSARI

  60. I think it is only recently that Ayatollah Montazeri has been released from house arrest, if I am not mistaken. Is there any significance in this?
  (Dr Ansari) I think it is significant, but I think it is significant also because the hard-line establishment was somewhat worried that he might die under house arrest.

  61. Am I right in remembering correctly that it was Ayatollah Montazeri who first suggested that Islam should not be integral to the government of Iran?
  (Dr Ansari) He is not the only one to have said this. He is probably one of the most prominent people who have said this. Iran at the moment is very divided amongst themselves. The ayatollahs take very different views. It is somewhat of a chauvinistic view but they take the view that there are the Iranian ayatollahs and the Iraqi ayatollahs; the Iraqi ayatollahs are the ones who came from Najaf. They then argue that the Iraqi ayatollahs are somewhat more hard line than the Iranian ayatollahs. It is not strictly speaking true. Nevertheless, there is a view pervasive among a number of clerics—let us not forget that President Khatami is a cleric—that any reform will come from the clerics. It will be determined by the clerics and they feel that religion in Iran, Islam, as a faith is suffering because of the state's persistent intervention, because of the state's role in being part of the religious process, not being a secular state.

  62. It was Montazeri who was seen at one stage as the natural heir to the ayatollah.
  (Dr Ansari) That is right. Montazeri, like all Iranian political leaders have tended to see a change in views over the years. It is natural over 24 years, a war, a revolution, you tend to have your views changed in some ways. He is seen now as someone who has seen the error of his ways or he has decided that the current system is not sustainable and what is important about him is that he has a lot of followers in the government. He has a lot of people in government who are his religious disciples, if I can use that word.

  Mr Olner

  63. Ayatollah Jalaluddin Taheri recently announced his resignation as leader of the Friday Prayers in Esfahan. This was an ayatollah of long standing, this was an ayatollah who had been appointed by Ayatollah Khomeini from exile as far back as 1976. Did his resignation start to cause ripples of unrest, where a person of such long standing decided that he was so concerned about the poverty, the politics of the Ayatollah's, that he felt he needed to resign. How much impact did that have?

  (Dr Ansari) I think Ayatollah Jalaluddin Taheri's resignation speech was enormously significant but it was somewhat dampened by the fact that President Bush made a comment on the airways the day afterwards and proclaimed his support for Mr Taheri which was not the right way to do it.

  64. We all sometimes suffer from what Mr Bush says.
  (Dr Ansari) Certainly Ayatollah Taheri comes from the left-leaning ayatollahs. He was appointed by Ayatollah Khomeini well before the revolution. Because of his age, because of his proximity to the Imam and the origins of the revolution he was extremely important. I was in Iran at the time of his resignation speech and it did resound. It was not the only comment to come out of a senior ayatollah. At the time there were other senior ayatollahs that made similar comments. Ayatollah Taheri's was probably the most explicitly hard hitting in a sense. The city of Esfahan has also seen a number of its prominent leaders thrust into prison. It is not the most happy city as far the hard-line establishment are concerned. Taheri is really reflecting that.

  65. That was one ripple. The other ripple is about student protests within Iran. Iran is well blessed with a fairly young population that is, to a large extent, fairly well educated.
  (Dr Ansari) That is correct.

  66. Do you think they are sufficiently well organised, as a ripple, to pressurise further conservative changes within Iran?
  (Dr Ansari) I think the student movement has suffered considerably since the 1999 demonstrations and riots that emerged. Nevertheless in my view it remains an organised force for change. Reporting on the student movement in Iran at the moment is not as widespread as it could be. Because the students remain such a thorn in the establishment's side they tend to be marginalised so far as the public are concerned. In my view, both as a historian and a political scientist, the role of the students in Iran in developing new ideas will remain a major force for change along with other groups, including the journalists and others. It is principally because they are seen as a major force for change that they have been so heavily attacked by the establishment. They are not going away and, as you say, the population is so young that every year you are getting another wave; it is like a human wave attack every year and it is pretty difficult to resist eventually.

  67. Do you think there is going to be peaceful change within Iran over the next two or three years with the political system that they have, or is that political system not capable of being reformed and there needs to be a velvet revolution.
  (Dr Ansari) I would say that Iran's political system is very much in the process of evolutionary change but evolutionary change that needs a kick now and then to get it going because it does not seem to want to move very quickly. I will put two caveats onto that, however. The vast majority of people in Iran—I would say 99% of Iranians—would want peaceful change; one revolution in a lifetime is enough as far as they are concerned. There are two issues here that are unknown to some extent. One is the impact of what will happen in neighbouring Iraq over the next six months, or month, depending what the timetable is; that will certainly have an impact on the domestic situation in Iran. The second is really the ability of certain elements within the establishment, I am thinking particularly of the judiciary, to needlessly provoke the population. If you needlessly provoke the population then you are likely to elicit a response which will be considerably more violent than need be. If you do not provoke the population when there is no need, I think the system will internally change on its own, rather slower than some people may want, but nevertheless there are other forces for change that will push it in the direction which I would be more happy with.

  Sir John Stanley

  68. Dr Ansari, we understand that one of the policies that is strongly favoured by the government of Iran is that the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the NCR, should be made a proscribed organisation, as a terrorist organisation. I should be grateful if you would tell us whether you would agree with such a policy and if not why not?

  (Dr Ansari) The National Council of Resistance is generally seen as a political body or an organisational body and since the late or mid 1980's has really come under the effective control of an organisation known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq organisation. The MKO or the MEK—depending on the acronym you want to use—is a body of somewhat militant resisters to the Islamic Republic. They have their own bones of contention with the clerical regime. They were involved in a fairly bloody civil war with the clerical regime in 1980-81. They are now based north of Baghdad and effectively they live on the grace and goodwill of Saddam Hussein, which does not help. According to the State Department it has been proscribed as a terrorist organisation. As far as most Iranians are concerned—and I know there is a certain amount of controversy about this—most Iranians, because of their situation in Iraq and because of their affinity and affiliation with Saddam Hussein, and because of the experience of eight years of war, do not see the Mujahedin-e Khalq as a likely contender for any form of regime change. Most of them probably detest them more than they do the clerical regime, principally because of nationalist objections, to be perfectly honest. I mean, you do not sit in Iraq; it is an absurd situation to be in. My view is that parliamentarians both in this country and the United States—and European Union to some extent—should be a lot more judicious in their associations with the National Council of Resistance, principally because they are widely seen and probably are the political wing of an organisation that is proscribed as a terrorist organisation under the eyes of the state department of the United States.

  69. If you want to express a view to us we would be glad to have it, do you believe that the British Government would be justified and right to follow the same policy as the US government by making the organisation a proscribed one?
  (Dr Ansari) My own view is that if the British Government seeks to pursue its interests in the long term, it should do all it can to support the process of democratisation in Iran in line with the growth of nationalism in the country. Support for the Mujahedin-e Khalq is not compatible with it. I would distance myself from them.

  Mr Pope

  70. Dr Ansari, in this country most of us have viewed the tensions between reformers and conservatives as being focussed primarily on Iranian domestic policy. Could I just ask you about foreign and security policy. In your opinion do reformers have a different agenda for Iranian foreign policy than the conservatives?

  (Dr Ansari) I think the reformist/conservative divide in Iran is now a little outdated in some ways. For the purposes of analysis it is useful. I think in foreign policy terms the major difference between reformists and conservatives is this, the reformists would like Iranian foreign policy to be conducted through the standard organs of government - ie the foreign ministry, the other ministries—under the leadership of the executives and so on and so forth. Whether their views on foreign policy would be dramatically different is another matter. A good case in point is the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. It is certainly a much more widespread view and I know few Iranians—even Iranians abroad—who see no problem with Iran pursuing a nuclear weapons program. They live in a dangerous neighbourhood. We should remember of course that the nuclear weapons program was started under the shah with German help. It is not something that the Islamic Republic has suddenly taken up; this is something that pre-dates that. The other thing that we have to bear in mind is that there are elements within the extreme right who are quite keen to pursue their own foreign policy irrespective of what goes on in government, and this is a problem. We have a lot of Oliver Norths in Iran.

  71. Could I ask about the impact of President Bush's State of the Union speech last year when he included Iran in the axis of evil. I think quite a number of us were surprised that that happened. One can see a case for Iraq and a case for North Korea being in an axis of evil, but I think a number of us were quite surprised that Iran was included. Many people in Europe thought that this was a tactical mistake. Our best bet is a constructive engagement with Iran, encouraging reformers, and by denouncing the whole of Iran as being part of an axis of evil that would weaken reformist elements. Can you just tell us what the net effect has been and has it hindered the reform process?
  (Dr Ansari) If George Bush had omitted the phrase "axis of evil" it would have been a lot, lot better. Many Iranians were quite happy with the fact that there was unelected minority. They had no objections to that in principle. What they objected to was being bound in with two other countries, particularly the Iraqis whom they do not have a huge amount of love for; the people were somewhat baffled by North Korea. It had a bad effect in two ways. One is that the reformist government of President Khatami had really bent over backwards to help in the Afghan war. They probably did more than was publicly known. This was the consequence of that—it played very badly in Iran. It said, "You can't trust the Americans, what the hell are we doing?" On the other hand, it also had a negative effect on the key constituents, particularly students and young people who felt somewhat let down. They have a somewhat idealist perspective of the west and the United States in particular, and I think this was a bit of a shock to the system. I have to agree that tactically it was a mistake. The fact that within two or three months he was talking about sitting down and having a dialogue with evil obviously made it quite clear.

  Mr Chidgey

  72. Dr Ansari, Commissioner Chris Patten visited Iran last week. One of the things he said in advance of his visit was, "We in Europe have a huge interest in Iran's development. Without wishing to interfere, we hope that Iran will recognise that the process of reform opens the way for Iran to play a more significant role regionally and globally." To what extent does the European Union's policy of engagement help to strengthen reforms in Iran? Does the EU policy not simply add a veneer of respectability to what many would call a deeply repressive regime?

  (Dr Ansari) There is truth in what you say to the extent that the European Union and the nature of the European Union means that on occasions that policies seem inconsistent. If it has inconsistencies in the approach of its policies it means that basically you are not getting your main points across. I think that Iran remains immensely important for Europe and for Britain in particular in the next century, certainly in terms of gas supplies. I think Iran's development as a leader in Islamic democracy is going to be extremely influential. I do agree that there are elements where Europe could improve upon some of its critical dialogue. Maybe its dialogue or critical engagement should be a little bit more critical and a little bit more consistent. The main area which I certainly hear a good deal of grumbling about—sometimes from some very surprising quarters—is really on the issue of human rights. I think sometimes, while other issues are less important for ordinary Iranians, there is a view that on the issue of human rights the moral clarity of the Bush administration can often seem more attractive to young Iranians than the ambiguity in some ways of the European Union, particularly where you have this revolving presidency. I do not want to name names, but there are certain countries—not Britain—that they are more critical of in terms of their position.

  73. Human rights is not the only area of difference between the EU and Iran. Two others, for example, would be Iran's involvement with weapons of mass destruction and Iran's approach to the Israeli/Palestinian conflicts which, some would argue, include support for terrorist cell organisations. How much do you believe that Iranians value the dialogue that they currently have with the European Union? Why is it seen from the Iranian perspective as important?
  (Dr Ansari) I think the dialogue is vital. It is immensely important to the Iranians both on commercial, cultural and political grounds.

  74. If it so important to the Iranians, could we, in the EU, be doing more to press the Iranians for reform as part of that dialogue.
  (Dr Ansari) Any form of encouragement and pressure has always been judiciously used and I think it is difficult sometime with the EU to get a coherent statement out. I think there has to be a better balance of carrot and stick, certainly. There are people within Iran who would like the EU to be harder on certain issues, certainly if there is a question of a hard-line reaction in the country. If a number of people were executed in Iran, for instance, they would like to feel that the European Union would not have a token protest, withdraw their ambassadors for a week and then trundle back; that, to most Iranians, does not make sense. On the other hand there has to be an element where you do support and encourage trade agreements, educational links and other areas which would be of tremendous appeal to a lot of young Iranians. I cannot emphasise that more. Rather than encouraging certain elements of the elite to get richer, it would be helpful if we encouraged certain members of the younger generations to get to know and be friendlier towards Europe.

  75. On the question that you raised as to executions and the withdrawing of ambassadors for a week, you will be aware that one of the issues that is of great concern to us in the west is the executions by stoning. You are also aware that it was announced in late December last year that the judiciary would no longer order executions by stoning and the judges would issue alternative forms of punishment, particularly for adultery. This was a suspension, of course, not a permanent change. What concerns us is that the EU policy of engagement with Iran, we could argue has produced few tangible results. It is a relatively new policy so if reforms are not forthcoming at what point would you assess should the EU draw their line in the sand, their red line and refuse to go ahead with negotiations, for example towards the trade cooperation agreement rather than withdrawing ambassadors for a week?
  (Dr Ansari) It is going to be much more difficult to make views heard on the issues heard on the issue of executions where a criminal offence is considered to have happened. If there is an execution for murder I do not think there is anything for the EU to do. There have been few, if any, executions since 1997. I am talking about political executions, political prisoners.

  76. Not stoning for adultery?
  (Dr Ansari) That is a separate issue. I think that is an issue that has to be dealt with. It is very interesting that in Iran there is this very dynamic environment of religious interpretation. In terms of religious law in the last ten years there has been a lot of discussion, and this is not something that Ayatollah Khomeini would have been alien to; he would interpret the law. Again this is more applicable to Shi'ism than Sunnism to be honest, one interprets the law in line with your own time, in line with your own age. Therefore, when you come to the modern age you obviously have to interpret the law according to your own age. There are clerics who do not subscribe to that view. Because of the judicial system and the fact that the judicial system in Iran has a certain independence from the law let alone from the executive, and certain judges seem to act in ways which are somewhat baffling to most Iranians, I think these are a problem and these are issues which I certainly think that a more firmer stand would be seen as positive. I am not a religious jurist, I am probably not qualified to judge on this, but the fact is yes, in the twenty-first century in a country like Iran with the civilisation that it has, I think the stoning of women for adultery is absurd.

  Sir Patrick Cormack

  77. Dr Ansari, could we move on to British relations with Iran. How far are Iranian attitudes conditioned by what one might call historical pre-conceptions and how far do they differentiate between Britain and the United States in this?

  (Dr Ansari) Anglo-Iranian relations are both blessed and cursed by their historical nature. Britain was the major power in Iran for a hundred years, from the 1850s right through to the nationalisation of oil. There are a number of major British companies which can see their roots in Iran and certainly in the exploitation of Iran and resources. There is certainly a sneaking admiration for the British; there is a strong Anglophilia among many Iranians, certainly in government as well. While politically they may not have liked what Britain did, they do believe that Britain knows how to run things politically; Britain knows politics. There is a saying that the Russians have force, the Americans have dollars and money but the British have politics. The British understand how to manage things. There is certainly the view that among some Iranians that Iran is the only country in the world where the British Empire still exists. This provides Britain with great advantages in terms of pursuing its commercial, political and cultural relations in Iran. There is a strong interest in Britain in culture and language and British universities. But it does have the negative effect and the negative impact is this fear that Britain politically interferes too much and also there is a view that Britain is far too closely attached to the clerical classes in Iran. Certainly among young people it is something which the Americans can gain from.

  78. How far is their attitude towards Britain going to condition their attitude towards any conflict involving Iraq?
  (Dr Ansari) Their attitude towards Britain?

  79. Yes.
  (Dr Ansari) Their attitude towards any conflict in Iraq is somewhat anomalos with the rest of the Middle East. They are distressed by the fact that there will be civilian casualties, but there is no love lost. Frankly, the western allies have been doing Iran's foreign policy a great favour over the last year by eliminating both the Taliban on the one hand and potentially Saddam Hussein on the other, both great blood enemies of Iran. There is certainly a feeling at governmental level, establishment level and societal level that they really cannot get excited by the fact that Saddam Hussein may be gone in a couple of months. They may not have really thought through the consequences of what this may mean to the Middle East. This is a different issue. There are certainly concerns amongst those who think about this a bit more deeply about what the Americans may have in store for them afterwards. That is a worry. I am not sure if the Americans know what they have in store for Iran afterwards so it does not really matter at the moment, but there is that concern. I do not think it will adversely affect Anglo-Iranian relations, no.


 
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