Examination of Witness (Questions 110
- 119)
TUESDAY 11 FEBRUARY 2003
DR GARY
SAMORE
Chairman
110. Dr Samore, we are delighted to have you with
us. The areas we would like to cover within your expertise include
the weapons of mass destruction evidence and some of the wider
regional matters for consideration. I understand you have prepared
for the Committee a memorandum on the nuclear program generally
and we look forward to receiving that[2]
(Dr Samore) Yes, that is right.
Mr Maples
111. I think I would like to hear you tell us
about the status and how far advanced you think Iran's nuclear
weapons program is and also our understanding is—I think
it is common knowledge—that they are developing longer range
missiles and rockets than some of their neighbouring countries
have. What is the status? How far advanced do you think it is?
How far are they from a deliverable weapon?
(Dr Samore) For years government experts
like myself have warned that Iran was tyring to develop nuclear
weapons but we could never talk about it very much because of
the constraints of classified information. Now the cover has blown
off Iran's nuclear weapons program and over the last couple of
months there have been a series of public reports about facilities
that Iran is building which can directly support their efforts
to produce a fissile material for nuclear weapons. Perhaps you
will have an opportunity to visit these facilities when you visit
there. One is a heavy water production plant near a town called
Arak and another is a gas centrifuge enrichment facility, also
under construction, near a town called Natanz. Both of these facilities
are still under construction. I think the exact status is a little
murky, but I would say they are still a few years away from being
operational. What is interesting about Iran's nuclear weapons
program is that unlike other countries that have been party to
the NPT[3]
and have tried to cheat on their Treaty obligations by building
undeclared clandestine facilities—like North Korea and Iraq—the
Iranians will try to build these facilities under IAEA[4]
safeguards, under international monitoring. They will try to claim
them as being part of their civil nuclear program in order to
build up the capabilities so that if they wanted to in the future
they could make a political decision to leave the Treaty and build
nuclear weapons; use those same facilities to produce nuclear
weapons. I think they are still a couple of years away from being
able to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. That is
the key point.
112. Do they have the bomb technology? Can they
weaponise what they have?
(Dr Samore) It is very difficult to say. That is an
area that is extremely difficult to get information about. If
you look at the state of their conventional military capability
and the kind of work they can do with explosives and manufacturing
ordinary ordnance, it is fairly well advanced. The basic principles
for relatively primitive nuclear weapons is so well known that
I cannot believe that they would not be able to do it, given the
commitment of resources. Whether they are actually carrying out
such a program, I do not know. That is something obviously the
regime is not going to acknowledge.
113. Are you going on to the missiles?
(Dr Samore) Yes. Their missile program is much more
advanced, mainly because they have benefited so directly from
North Korean assistance, starting in the early 1990s and have
the technology and production facilities to manufacture liquid
fuel scud type missiles. They are now, I would say, reasonably
close to being able to manufacture their own version of an extended
range scud missile which the Iranians call the Shahab 3, which
the North Koreans call the No Dong. It is the same missile.
114. What is the range?
(Dr Samore) About thirteen hundred kilometres. It
depends a little bit on some technical details about exactly what
materials it is manufactured from. It could be thirteen hundred
to fifteen hundred kilometres.
115. Are they working on a longer range one
than that?
(Dr Samore) The Iranian regime is very sophisticated
in that they do not want—or they are trying to avoid—to
antagonise and raise political opposition by their activities.
What they claim is that they are satisfied with the Shahab 3 as
the longest range military system they need because that reaches
all the potential enemies in the Middle East, including Israel.
But they say they still want to work on a peaceful space launch
vehicle, so they are working on a peaceful longer range system.
This is comparable to their strategy in the nuclear weapons area
where they claim they have purely peaceful purposes. But if you
look at the actual facilities they are building they are completely
unjustified by the civilian program and obviously intend to give
them a nuclear weapons production program.
116. So there is a really serious missile and
nuclear weapons program going on, is there?
(Dr Samore) Yes, I would say so.
117. Is the missile designed to carry a nuclear
weapon or are there other weapons of mass destruction?
(Dr Samore) Iran is certainly thought to have chemical
weapons and biological weapons programs. As to the exact status
of those programs I think that is very difficult to be able to
ascertain. They are party to the chemical weapons convention and
so in theory they are subject to challenge inspections. If the
United States or the United Kingdom were to call for a challenge
inspection, that could take place. There are certainly very strong
suspicions in western governments that Iran does have some clandestine
chemical weapons capability, not only production capability but
perhaps even some munitions. That certainly could be delivered
by their Shahab 3 missile.
118. My understanding is that northern Iran
is so far from the sea or land based interceptor systems that
if missiles were launched from northern Iran it would be very
difficult for an anti-ballistic missile system to catch them.
Is that right?
(Dr Samore) I think it depends on the capabilities
of the system.
119. Sorry, a land or sea based system. It could
be done with spaced based or air borne lasers. Could you take
us through the issues that are at stake here?
(Dr Samore) I think that Israel—which is obviously
worried about being attacked by missiles—had tried to develop
the Arrow anti-missile defence system which is intended to cover
the Shahab 3 type systems. As to the exact technical capability
of the system and whether it will actually perform as expected
or is advertised, I just do not know the answer.
2 Ev 47. Back
3
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Back
4
International Atomic Energy Agency. Back
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