Select Committee on International Development Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses(Questions 61-79)

THURSDAY 6 MARCH 2003

MR ROSS MOUNTAIN, MS ANUPAMA RAO SINGH AND MR NICOLAS OBERLIN

Mr Battle

  61. Thank you for coming. It is very helpful indeed that you are here. Could I give apologies on behalf of our Chairman, Tony Baldry, who is not able to be here this morning. The rest of us are here. We are trying to carry out a brief but detailed inquiry into the humanitarian consequences of any possible military action against Iraq. Obviously, your voice and contribution is crucial to our understanding of this, so we do appreciate your taking the time and trouble to be here. We have a series of questions that cover a range of areas that have been of concern to us: food aid, refugees, possible arrangements you have made already and where we are up to.

  (Mr Mountain) First of all, I would like to introduce my two colleagues. Then I would like to make a short presentation to give you an overview so that you can see the different elements in context, if you would allow that.

  62. That would be helpful.
  (Mr Mountain) First of all, may I introduce on my right Ms Anupama Rao Singh, who is currently the Deputy Director of Programmes for UNICEF in New York but was from 1999 to 2001 Head of the UNICEF office in Iraq. On my left is Nicolas Oberlin, who is the Regional Programme Adviser for the World Food Programme. You did ask us to try and bring along a range of agency colleagues, and I am very pleased that I have been able to bring these colleagues from two of the main operational agencies. First of all, we are, of course, very pleased to have the opportunity to come and share information with you on the state of contingency and preparedness planning that we in the United Nations have been undertaking. You will be all too well aware, I am sure, that the position of the UN, the Secretary General, is that war is not inevitable in his view, and war is always a humanitarian or a human catastrophe, and a course that should only be considered when all other possibilities have been exhausted, and when it is obvious that the alternative is worse. That is the institutional position. However, as a matter of precaution in carrying out the functions that are obviously the responsibility of the different United Nations agencies, we have been doing contingency planning for some time against the eventuality that there will not be a peaceful outcome. You will be aware though that, because of the delicacies in terms of international perception, we have had to do this in a fairly low-key fashion. The concern has been that people do not get the impression that the United Nations is preparing for war; that is not the case. However, having said that, what we have been doing has involved the whole of the international humanitarian community. It has been a coherent effort that we are pleased to say has brought together the Red Cross movement, who we have very close contact with, and the non-governmental organisations—I am happy to come back to that—both through their representatives at the international level, the international consortia, and most importantly at the country level. You do not need me to rehearse that the situation in Iraq even prior to any additional intervention is one of significant humanitarian need. I am happy to come back to that if you like, but the situation even before anything happens is that the population is, of course, suffering considerably. We have basically three sets of potential "clients", if I may: the refugees, of course, or asylum seekers, people seeking to leave the country in that eventuality; third-country nationals is the second; and the third would be those inside the country. I would suggest to you that the latter is the most important element for us to focus on at this stage, those who are internally displaced and those who, as we came to know in Afghanistan, are in fact internally stuck, people with significant humanitarian needs inside. Up until recently we have been fairly optimistic about the needs of those in the three northern governorates. However, in the light of recent political developments, we have some concerns now about the impact that there may be in that part of the country. We have organised—as a system—in terms of strengthening the capacities that there are to support the Resident Co-ordinators and the agencies in all of the countries surrounding Iraq. In addition, we have brought together a regional office against the eventuality that international UN staff will need to be evacuated from Iraq, and that headquarters is in Larnaca. Rather uniquely, in advance of any intensification of the crisis, the Secretary General has approved the designation of a regional humanitarian co-ordinator, Ramiro Lopez de Silva, who will, should the eventuality occur, be located in Larnaca with a team from the agencies and others. In fact, two of us have just come back from a meeting in Larnaca yesterday in relation to preparedness efforts. I would like to give you a quick idea of the different sectors that are being catered for. That is why I felt it would be useful at the beginning to give you this bit of an overview. Refugees, of course: led by UNHCR. Third-country nationals: lead International Organisation for Migration. Internally Displaced Persons: the Office of the UN Co-Ordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Iraq. Food: World Food Programme; Health and Medicine: World Health Organisation; Shelter, Habitat, with UNOPS and IOM. Water and sanitation is UNICEF. Nutrition is UNICEF. Education is UNICEF. Fuel, a major problem that we are concerned about: again the Office of the Humanitarian Co-Ordinator. Electricity: the UN Development Programme. Mines and unexploded ordinance: UN Mine Action Service. Environment, oil spill potential and so on: UNEP and OCHA. Protection: ICRC is of course very much concerned, but also the Office of the Humanitarian Co-Ordinator (and UNICEF on children). Military/civil liaison: OCHA. Security: UNSECOORD. We also have a range of tools that will be employed to provide support to all the humanitarian community: a Joint Logistics Centre to deal with logistical aspects, bottlenecks, how you get the supplies in and so on (lead WFP); a Humanitarian Information Centre, again, what is happening where, who is doing what, what the needs are (OCHA); a Humanitarian Air Service to try and link the different points around Iraq and prospectively in the future inside (WFP); and communications (WFP/OCHA). The final point I need to make, Mr Chairman, is the issue of funding. I have outlined to you in a very skeletal fashion some of the preparations that are being made by the UN and indeed the humanitarian system at large. You are aware of, and indeed I will pass to you a document that came out a couple of weeks ago in relation to the financial needs for preparation. We were looking early on for $37 million, then for $122 million, and the funding that has been made available has been largely from borrowing from internal agency sources and the Central Emergency Revolving Fund that is established within OCHA. Even those that have pledged—and there are now pledges of about $40 million—have unfortunately not been forthcoming with cash. We have very much welcomed a recent pledge by the Secretary of State of £3.5 million for preparational activity, but you should be aware that the amount of resources that are available is simply inadequate. The figures that we are giving as targets are in relation to the preparedness phase. We need to be aware that if we are getting into the next phase, the sums are extremely large. We will be putting out a Flash Appeal as soon as any emergency, any conflict, breaks out. I do need to particularly flag the future of the Oil For Food programme. In stark terms, that programme will, for all intents and purposes, cease to be operative at the outbreak of any conflict, once UN observers have been evacuated. This programme provides in food terms about 470,000 tonnes of food to every man, woman and child in the country every month. In addition, it of course provides support for health, water and sanitation, education—the range of aspects. The food distribution alone is done through about 45,000 agencies in the centre/south. This is run entirely by the Iraqis. In the north where WFP takes direct responsibility for implementation it is through another 10,000 agents. If that is disrupted—and if there is a conflict it will be disrupted—you will understand the consequences. We estimate at the moment that household food stocks are between four and six weeks on average. It is estimated that if the Security Council were prepared to take steps to change the existing arrangement—the resources belong to the Iraqi Government—it could take from six to eight weeks for a transfer of functions. If we had to start anew, it would take a minimum of three to four months. That is of major concern to us. Finally, we need to be concerned not just during the combat phase. This has consequences for the long term. The Iraqi people have, as you will be aware from other evidence, lost all coping capacity. Sixty per cent of the population depend entirely on the Oil For Food programme rations while for the remainder it constitutes 80% of their daily needs. This will not end with the conclusion of any conflict, no matter how short. One also has to worry about who is going to pay for the civil service afterwards. At present they are being paid by the Government of Iraq. We very much appreciate this opportunity of interacting with you. I did have the opportunity of seeing the evidence given by the Secretary of State, which I thought was extremely useful in outlining the role that the United Nations seeks to play. We are happy to respond to your questions.

Ann Clwyd

  63. I have just come back from northern Iraq, so I know some of the things people there have raised, which I might raise with you later on during the course of the session. I wonder when you actually started planning. Was there a date last year when you decided that you must start to plan for humanitarian consequences?
  (Mr Mountain) We started planning probably very low-key about a year ago. Again, I need to put this in the context that where there are difficult circumstances, as in what is happening in southern Africa or western Africa, we try and look ahead and see what the requirements might be of the United Nations. So we started in a very low-key way approximately a year ago. I would say we started in rather more robust fashion about six months ago.

  64. I imagine your main problem was, as you have said, that you had to be low-key, and you had be aware of the sensitivities of all the UN member governments. Were you only able to plan internally or were you also able to plan in conjunction with some of the countries that you thought might be assisting in the process, such as the UK for example, or the US?
  (Mr Mountain) The internal planning was very much internal at the beginning. Informal contacts have been taken with a number of countries, including, if I may say so, the countries surrounding Iraq, who will obviously be very much concerned at a later stage. We have had very low-key and rather more recent contact with the UK and the US, and other donor governments.

  65. Shortage of funds is a theme we have heard many times. Obviously that is always a problem for the UN. We have seen it in so many similar situations. Does the knowledge that you ultimately get the funds affect your planning, or do you plan on the basis that you only have X amount of money as of this time?
  (Mr Mountain) If we had planned on the basis of only working with the money we had received, we would not have done anything until a couple of weeks ago. What we have done is that each of the UN agencies has borrowed from their own internal resources, where they have them. Some agencies, one in particular, have had a very tough year and do not have much. Most agencies do not have very much. Then they have borrowed from the Central Emergency Revolving Fund, which OCHA manages. These are loans, I repeat. The amounts of money that have been advanced from these sources have been modest. I have to note that we also need to deal with other Government colleagues on Auditing and Finance Committees who are concerned with over expenditure. And we have had to deal also with some governments that have said, "OK, if it happens, we will make money available to you immediately any conflict occurs—." Indeed, one important donor has said it will even allow for retro-active financing. However, if it does not happen, the agencies involved are caught without cover. We have tried to be as transparent as the circumstances would allow in saying to the donor community, "I am sorry. We are doing our very best, but without the necessary resources, we cannot do the stockpiling. We will not be able to deal with the kinds of numbers we fear may need assistance." If I may say so, I believe the UN and the humanitarian system is really quite well prepared in terms of having its organisation in place,—but in a sense, we are all dressed up with no coach to take us to the ball! To take WFP, who can certainly speak for themselves, in terms of the replacement for the Oil For Food programme, they have the 9,000 trucks that have been identified as being required to move the vast tonnage—but there is no food to put on them! The stockpiles we have been able to establish—I will not take up your time now by running through them—are a minor proportion of the mid-case scenario that we fear. We have tried to say from the beginning to the donors—because we are aware that on the one hand there is a sensitivity and on the other hand there is the expectation that the UN and the international community will be prepared, as indeed we wish to be—"I am sorry. Those are the limitations we have had to work with."

Tony Worthington

  66. Can I get clear the role of the UN overall? It looks very confusing to me. In the newspapers yesterday there was a set of accounts about the role of the UN that was very similar to what you have just said, but if you look at the United States, and I am not talking about newspaper reports but a report to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Under Secretary Douglas Feith, it made a statement—this was not conjecture; this was factual—about the US position, that they had set up this Department of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, that they would be inviting UN organisations, coalition parties and NGOs to join in and support this, that accountability to the President for what they call "coalition officials" would be through Donald Rumsfeld and Tommy Franks, that the general in charge, General Garner, is there. This is not conjectural, as I say, but sounds like a totally alternative way of dealing with the same issue. I do not understand it.
  (Mr Mountain) I am obviously not here to talk on behalf of the United States, but I do have before me a fact sheet which was issued by the White House that has come to us where they indicate their general approach to humanitarian assistance preparations. They indicate here that they will "rely primarily on civilian relief agencies, facilitating operations of international organisations and NGOs," and so on. The pre-positioning that they have done themselves is not enormous compared to the potential need. The US has indicated that it will make a number of contributions to UN agencies, and those figures are included in the roughly $40 million I mentioned just now. Again, that money, like money from most, is not yet to hand in all cases. I believe that there is concern, and I believe that they are aware of what the United Nations is endeavouring to do on the humanitarian side as a precautionary measure, but further than that I am afraid I cannot go.

  67. It is my view that in a post-conflict situation the UN should be in charge. We have argued that we should go through the UN route and that the UN should be in charge in the way that you have described, but I want to be clear: that is not agreed as yet.
  (Mr Mountain) You will understand that at this stage what we are talking about is contingency planning, preparedness planning. One has not got to actually implementing any of these plans at this stage; we have simply put them in place. I do need to emphasize that the United Nations is making its plan on the basis of the United Nations mandate, and it is on that basis that we are proceeding.

  68. The US position I have described is accurate, is it not?
  (Ms Singh) I just wanted to supplement what Ross has said. I think presently, if you look at the UN's role in Iraq, there are three elements to it. First of all, we, like most of the operational agencies, have an obligation to respond to humanitarian needs that may emerge, simply because the mandate of the UN Charter expects us to do so. But the Oil For Food programme as it exists now is basically a programme that has been established by the mandate of the Security Council, and we expect that any role for the UN beyond immediate humanitarian response would be subject to Security Council discussion and resolution on the issue. So we are basically waiting to hear what is expected of us in the more long-term perspective.

  69. I accept that, but can you confirm that what I am saying is correct, that there has been a presentation to the US Foreign Relations Committee as I described, that this is a totally different approach, that the humanitarian relief would be overseen by the USA?
  (Mr Mountain) I am sorry. I cannot confirm that. I can tell you, for example, that what we have heard is that Assistant Secretary of State, Gene Dewey, has said the multilateral system is at the centre of any humanitarian response. The message that we have been getting through informal contacts has been that they expect or wish the United Nations and the humanitarian community to continue to play a lead humanitarian role, not inconsistent, of course, with any eventual responsibilities that may come under the Fourth Convention on the responsibility of the Occupying Power in any eventuality. So I am sorry; I cannot confirm that that was what was said to a US Committee. The contacts that we have had have led us to believe that they would seek to co-operate with the United Nations.

  70. Has there been any contingency planning? One would think in a situation like this that someone would have been pencilled in to head it up, a Brahimi-type figure.
  (Mr Mountain) On the humanitarian side, not only has somebody been pencilled in, but somebody has been named. This is the fellow who at the present time is the Humanitarian Co-ordinator in Iraq, who has now been named to be in charge of the total operation, including in the surrounding countries, in dealing with the humanitarian aspects. We have even set up, as I mentioned, a hub in Larnaca, Cyprus, which will have representation of all the key UN agencies as well. So we have certainly moved ahead with our continency planning to that extent.

  71. But that is just humanitarian; there is no civil administration appointment.
  (Mr Mountain) No. Obviously, we would need to work through such structures as are there, but the United Nations has not at all got into the idea of a civil administration role post conflict. That again, as Anupama has just said, would require the Security Council to decide on that, of which the United Kingdom is a member, of course.

Mr Walter

  72. You have just used the phrase that you have been "led to believe" that they would co-operate with the UN. In the interests of joined-up government and on the basis that you are preparing for a contingency, and the most likely contingency if there is a conflict is that the US will be the Occupying Power and will make up the military administration there, would it not have been logical that you should have had detailed discussions with the United States, and particularly the United States military, as to how they perceive this administration would work and how you see your role in fitting in with them?
  (Mr Mountain) We have briefed donors, including the United Kingdom and the United States, and others, on several occasions, as well as holding follow-up discussions on humanitarian aspects with our partners. There have been limited discussions also with military personnel in accordance with our standard approach that recognises that if we were to go into Iraq in a conflict situation, we would need to be able to deal with all parts of the equation. So there have been contacts, indeed. That does not relate to us supporting another agenda. It is a UN agenda, it is UN leadership, but if another party is planning to do something separately, it is not for us to stop them.

  73. But you have said that 60% of the Iraqi population depend on the Oil For Food programme and that would cease when the first tanks roll over the border. If that is the case, if the US has not made provision for the food programme, and you have made provision but you have not actually discussed it with the US, surely there is a bit that needs to be joined up here so that we do not have starving people on the streets of Iraq.
  (Mr Mountain) I do not want you to get the impression that we have not spoken to the US about the Oil For Food programme. That has certainly been front and centre. Nicolas may wish to make further comments on it, but just as we are telling you in detail now about the consequences of the Oil For Food programme being interrupted, we have most certainly told the US and others about the consequences of that eventuality.
  (Mr Oberlin) The focus is moving from what I understood was the post-conflict civilian administration to the UN's response to the emergency situation, which we seem to be focusing on now, as far as the Oil For Food programme goes. In that particular case, the emergency response, we have discussed this with the United States, but we are talking of half a million tonnes of food a month, we are talking about 58,000 food agents in Iraq who are now distributing the food to 25 million people every month. So we have looked at how we could maintain this food distribution system in the immediate aftermath of a conflict, but it is not something that the United Nations could take over. It is the Iraqi Government that is implementing the food distribution system for the most part, and it is not something we do, feed 25 million people every month. We did make contingency plans to make sure that this is not interrupted for a few months, but beyond that, it will have to be worked out in detail, and it is certainly not a responsibility that the United Nations and the World Food Programme can take. It is beyond our capacity.

  74. There will be no Iraqi Government, so we presume the United States will do it.
  (Mr Oberlin) That is for them to say, or whatever administration will be in place at the time.
  (Mr Mountain) We are not trying to duck your question here, but it is up to the Security Council to decide. The Oil For Food programme has been laid down, as you know, after very intricate discussions with all parties concerned, and the assets are the assets of the Iraqi Government. They do the contracting. The UN oversees it in the centre/south and implements it in the north. There are other dimensions of this as well. One dimension is, for example, that 25% of the Oil For Food assets go for compensation, and one can speculate that if the Security Council so decided, it might be possible to postpone the payment of some of that compensation for a while, in order to make sure that resources were available to ensure that the enormous amount of money and goods that will be required are available. We have done our contingency planning, initially taking into account the other emergency aspects which come from dislocation, displacement, injuries and so on. But having to take into account the whole of the Oil For Food programme, which is feeding every single person in the country, is an extraordinary undertaking, and we are not equipped for that. We are equipped to pick up on it. The World Food Programme has the 9,000 trucks; but this does not happen from one day to the next; we do not have the food; we do not have the money for the food. We have certainly made it clear to those in a position to respond, the dimensions of the need.
  (Mr Oberlin) In addition to the capacity problem, food and transport for just a month is about $250-300 million. That is in addition to the capacity problem. We have a huge problem of financing that, and until such time as a new system is in place, not only in terms of civil administration for the country, but in terms of the framework, the Security Council resolution about financing the post-conflict reconstruction, we cannot envisage being able to get hold of $250 million every month, and that is just food and transport, not to mention the huge structure that would have to be put in place. We cannot imagine being able to find that sort of funding on a monthly basis. This is why we are not looking too far down the road.
  (Mr Mountain) A six-month tranche of the Oil For Food programme delivers of the order of $5 billion worth of commodities into the country. That is exclusive of the costs of the civil service, which is paid separately by the Iraqi Government, or for internal transport and so on. The figures we are talking about here are huge. Certainly in humanitarian terms they are huge. In military terms they perhaps may be seen in a rather different perspective, but they are very high.
  (Ms Singh) If I can make a couple of points to supplement what has been said, first of all, the Security Council has approved the Oil For Food programme up to 3 June, so it legally can continue up to 3 June, but the issues that we are addressing here are, since the 59% account, as it is called, for the south and centre is administered by the Government of Iraq, who would administer it in a possible post-conflict situation? For the continuation of the programme, one of the key things we need to look at is resource availability, liquidity, which means that oil production has to continue or resume as soon as possible for revenues to be built up, and in sectors other than food, our resources available under the Oil For Food programme are imported supplies. There are elements of the cash component that would be required in order to use the supplies effectively in addition to the issue of salaries of the local entities who actually manage the programme. When the DSG and SG gave an informal briefing to the members of the Security Council about a week ago, they made very clear that they felt we were certainly looking at at least some of these issues that we think need to be addressed. They said that any of the members of the Security Council that want to have more detailed informal discussions are welcome, and that we would be happy to deal with them, but the issue seems to be that within the Security Council at this point there is a great sensitivity about whether it is too premature to have a discussion on the implications of a possible crisis on the programme. We will be ready to have a dialogue with whoever wishes to on this.

  Mr Battle: It is a difficult conversation. The themes and areas we are looking at run together. Chris's question links to the points you have just mentioned.

Chris McCafferty

  75. It is really further to the point on Oil For Food programme. You have made it clear that you have enormous concerns about how that programme would continue. In fact, I think in your introductory remarks you said it would cease to be operative on commencement of hostilities, and in response to my colleague Ann Clwyd, you also said that stockpiles were a minor proportion of what you felt was needed in a mid-range scenario. I would draw your attention to the USAID website, where they are saying quite clearly that they intend to work with international organisations to maintain a countrywide ration system on an emergency basis and support displaced persons. Could you comment on that? That is part of their website "reliefweb", USA contingency plans for humanitarian assistance in Iraq. That seems to rather fly in the face of what you are saying, that you believe it is not possible. We have heard that there is seven months' worth of food supplies that have already been purchased through the Oil For Food programme and that USAID is prepared to ensure continued distribution of that food. That certainly supports what their website is saying. Could you explain that to us?
  (Mr Mountain) I would be happy to try. Let me simply say that the Oil For Food programme is an immensely complicated mechanism, and it has been the subject of very close discussions, in fact, over the last two weeks, which I am pleased to say Nicolas was involved in. As Nicolas said, there have been discussions with the US on how that programme might be picked up—and he can go into further detail on that—but at this stage it is not picked up. There are two ways. One would be a resolution in the Security Council that would give the Secretary General authority to manage that programme. There are various dimensions of that. The second would be to assume that the programme would be discontinued, and that therefore it should be replaced, and supplies started de novo. Those that are running the programme—and I tried to touch on this in my introductory remarks—indicate that if there was a handover by the Security Council to the Secretary General, the time taken to reorganise all the supplies would be probably of the order of 6-8 weeks. If it was a new programme where you had to get new orders in, it could take up to 3-4 months. Those are the basic facts of the situation. At the moment there is discussion but nothing is organised at this stage. The pipeline does not automatically become somebody else's. There are $10 billion worth of pipeline at this stage, of which $4 billion is immediate humanitarian requirements, food, health and water supply. But these are deals that are being done between the Iraqi Government and individual suppliers.
  (Mr Oberlin) There are a few ways to look at your question. As Ross has just mentioned, there is the legal issue to start with, because the Government of Iraq is now contracting supplies for the entire amount, except for the three northern governorates, and that includes food, and in the case of food, the three northern governorates are included. So we are confronted with a situation where food is on its way, but it is on its way against contracts which are between the Government of Iraq and suppliers, which the United Nations happen to see because of the sanctions issue and the payment issue, but we have no way of getting involved in that until the Security Council resolution changes that, if it can. All we can look at is what is on its way. In terms of the assistance we could provide, there are a few issues. One is an issue of pipeline, because our interest, so to speak, in diverting or being able to use what is now in the pipeline is aimed at this pipeline not being interrupted. As Ross says, should it be interrupted, it would take a long time to start again with the lag time for procurement of commodities. That is one of our big interests in trying to be able to use the food that is on its way. You mentioned that there is seven months' worth of food in the pipeline. Our estimate is that it is closer to two or three months', depending on the commodities in the food baskets. Having said that, again, we do not have access to that, and it would have to await a Security Council decision. We are nevertheless trying to locate this food. We do not even know whether it is on its way because, again, it is an issue between the supplier and the Government of Iraq. We are trying to figure out as much as we can also in terms of transport alternatives, because 60% of this food is now coming in through the port of Umm Qasr, which we think might not be used during and after conflict. All these plans we are making, but this food is not ours at the moment.
  (Mr Mountain) We welcome the commitment of the US, if that is a commitment. I am afraid I did not find it in the fact sheet.

  76. It is under "Food and Nutrition." "USAID will ensure the nutritional needs of the population are met through food availability and distribution" and "We will work with international organisations to maintain a countrywide ration system on an emergency basis and support internally displaced persons." It is quite clear.
  (Mr Mountain) We welcome that. It is not in place.

  77. Do you need a Security Council resolution to alter the Oil For Food programme in a time of conflict?
  (Ms Singh) Absolutely.

  78. Could I widen this out? Ross, you said in your introduction that Iraqis already have a significant humanitarian need. Given the apparent difficulties of obtaining a further Security Council resolution, do you see any difficulties for the UN if there is not a second resolution, or would in fact the UN's position be easier if there was not one?
  (Mr Mountain) We are talking about a different resolution.

  79. I recognise that. I am just saying, you responded by saying that that second Security Council resolution is necessary to change the Oil For Food programme in a time of conflict. What I am now saying is, can we widen this out away from that? You have made the point about the significant humanitarian problem. We know that there is an enormous food shortage in Iraq. What I am now asking is, if there is not a second Security Council resolution about going to war, would that put the UN in a very difficult position in terms of its humanitarian remit or would it in fact be easier for you because you would not be seen as being politically partial?
  (Mr Mountain) Our approach is based on the humanitarian responsibilities of our different agencies. Whether there is a second resolution or not, if there is a conflict, we will need to do essentially the same tasks, and worry about how we reach the vulnerable populations inside Iraq. Clearly, if there is a conflict, the Oil For Food programme stops, so relating that to the current condition of the Iraqi population, that condition will immediately worsen, independent of any effects of the conflict.


 
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