V. DRUGS
71. The Prime Minister has spoken of the need to
eradicate the opium poppy harvest as part of the programme of
action in support of coalition action against Afghanistan.[254]
The UK has since taken a lead in developing a UN eradication
programme. Last year the Afghan government estimated that about
25 per cent of the crop was eradicated in the eradication programme,
a fairly substantial success. The amount of heroin destroyed was
£5 billion at UK street prices, so it made quite a significant
impact.[255] But
the success of the eradication programme was soured when, in Kabul,
Ashraf Ghani complained that the donor community had failed to
honour what he saw as its side of the bargain by providing support
for alternative livelihoods as a compensation package. He described
it as the single issue which had lost him most credibility within
the government and in the regions affected.
72. Despite the early successes in destroying poppy
fields and the ban on opium poppy cultivation, new UN figures
show that the eradication programme has had unforseen consequences.
The UN crop survey, published in November 2002, showed that Afghanistan
is set to resume its place as the source of 75 per cent of the
world's and 90 per cent of the UK's heroin supply.[256]
The UN estimate that 3,400 tonnes of opium will be produced in
Afghanistan in 2002 is much higher than the estimated 185 tonnes
produced in 2001, following a Taliban ban on poppy cultivation.
Although this recent rise amounts to a twenty-fold increase in
opium production, production had dramatically increased under
the Taliban and it was only in the final year of the regime that
poppy growing was banned. The ban had a limited effect since the
regime did little to destroy stocks and laboratory facilities.
Money was still being made but higher up the production chain.[257]
73. The reasons for this rise in production are varied
but they include the increased incentive to grow poppies resulting
from the higher price which the crop commanded due to shortages
caused by the eradication policy. In addition, some farmers may
well have grown poppies in the hope of receiving the compensation
that was paid out to those whose crops were eradicated. High levels
of debt pose a serious threat to the recovery of local communities.[258]
When farmers grow opium, they borrow money from the traders. A
lot of farmers found themselves significantly in debt because
of the opium ban imposed by the Taliban and have needed to cultivate
poppies again this year in order to repay.
74. None of the alternatives to poppy cultivation
can compete with its profitability.[259]
So the alternative crops approach of trying to persuade farmers
to change what they grow is unlikely to win easy converts. Even
DFID's Chris Austin said that: "I do not think experience
elsewhere has shown that crop substitution is really going to
work in Afghanistan".[260]
Current policies aim to persuade farmers to move over to other
high-value crops such as saffron and cumin, but an export market
is necessary for these crops to be successful. This is perhaps
less daunting than it may appearat one time Afghanistan
supplied forty per cent of the world's raisin market. But even
so, other high-value crops have disadvantages compared with the
poppy, which grows in very poor conditions and brings in large
amounts of money. This policy may be more effective in areas where
farmers have only recently started to grow poppy but if persuading
Afghan farmers to grow alternative crops is not an effective policy,
encouraging them towards alternative livelihoods may be more successful.
Poppy cultivation is labour intensive and relies on the availability
of cheap labour. If more Afghans were employed in construction
work on road building and other infrastructure projects, this
may reduce the supply of labour and the tendency to turn to poppy
cultivation.[261] Peter
Marsden of the British Agencies Afghanistan Group said: "I
do not think it is realistic to look at alternative crops as a
way forward. The only way forward is alternative livelihoods,
perhaps through the urban economy".[262]
75. The UK has set a target of 70 per cent reduction
of opium poppy crops by 2008 and 100 per cent elimination by 2013.[263]
This is an ambitious goal and, as Tom Phillips recognised, success
will depend on building up law enforcement capability and institution
building.[264] This
in turn will depend upon development of an effective judicial
system. In our view the law enforcement approach may be best targeted
on the traders who source their supplies from farmers, rather
than on the farmers themselves. Tom Phillips cautioned against
expecting immediate results, believing that reconstruction had
not yet reached a level where one could be confident that there
were sufficient alternative livelihoods available to a significant
number of Afghan farmers.[265]
Viewed on the basis of financial returns it is hard to see how
progress with alternatives can be made. But there are other approaches.
The gradual build-up of a law enforcement and judicial system
will, we hope, marginalise the illegal activity of poppy production.
There will then be a chance to offer farmers something which,
while not as lucrative as poppy growing, will nevertheless have
tangible benefits. The Secretary of State told us that although
poppy farmers could not realistically be tempted away from poppy
cultivation with the promise of equally valuable crops, they could
and should be offered the alternative of "a better life that
is a legitimate life" which would also allow them to reap
the benefits of stability and provision of public services such
as education for their children.[266]
We commend this approach. Of course, none of this deflects from
the UK's responsibility to address its own demand for the drug.
As Clare Short pointed out, "if we get Afghanistan to the
point where there is no drug production, it will come to the UK
from somewhere else."[267]
254 'UK heroin fight hit by record opium harvest',
The Guardian, 26/10.02. See also Prime Minister's Speech
to the Labour Party Conference, 3 October 2001 Back
255
Q71 Back
256
'UK heroin fight hit by record opium harvest', The Guardian,
26/10.02 Back
257
Q71 Back
258
Ev 144 Back
259
Q204 Back
260
Q72 Back
261
Q202 Back
262
Ibid. Back
263
Q71 Back
264
Ibid. Back
265
Ibid. Back
266
Q248 Back
267
Ibid. Back
|