Memorandum submitted by Intelligent Energy
There is no straightforward answer to this as
it depends on the application in question. PEM fuel cells have
high efficiency (®43%) in power production mode,
and a higher efficiency, up to ®85%, in CHP operation.
With PEM stack and related sub-system sizes in the range of just
a few Watts to up to 250kW there is going to be a wide profile
in generating costs at the p/kW level. It will also depend on
the fuel used as a hydrogen carrier. The chart below incorporates
capital costs (UK manufacture) for a "typical" 10kW
PEM unit based on Natural Gas and LPG. The generating costs are
estimates for units produced during full scale commercialization,
at around 2008.
It is not anticipated that electricity generated
by fuel cells will compete directly with the grid. But if fuel
cells are run in a CHP mode, and it is anticipated that most will,
the cost of total energy is significantly lower than the cost
of electricity. Heat can be sold at 20% above fuel value, and
fuel cells produce about as much heat on a kW basis as they do
We believe that the first fully commercial PEM
units will be in the field, in the UK, in late 2003, and that
large scale production of PEM systems will have taken place in
the UK by late 2005.
An estimate of annual production in terms of
MW is shown below. We anticipate a large jump in production in
2005 and again in 2006 as a consequence of the stepping up of
production technology. At that time legacy manufacturing systems
deployed for early stage production will need to be replaced by
new machining and assembly technologies to match volume and production
cost requirements. These facilities may either be leased, full
production facilities subcontracted, or the entire manufacturing
process may be licensed to independent suppliers.
The following table provides Intelligent Energy's
estimate of energy production based on the supply of our PEM fuel
cells through to 2010. This has been split across the three main
market sectors that we anticipate that Intelligent Energy products
will be supplied in to.
IE MW SALES BY SECTOR