Select Committee on Science and Technology Appendices to the Minutes of Evidence


APPENDIX 46

Memorandum submitted by Intelligent Energy Limited

ESTIMATED GENERATING COSTS OF COMMERCIALLY DEPLOYED FUEL CELLS:

  There is no straightforward answer to this as it depends on the application in question. PEM fuel cells have high efficiency (®43%) in power production mode, and a higher efficiency, up to ®85%, in CHP operation. With PEM stack and related sub-system sizes in the range of just a few Watts to up to 250kW there is going to be a wide profile in generating costs at the p/kW level. It will also depend on the fuel used as a hydrogen carrier. The chart below incorporates capital costs (UK manufacture) for a "typical" 10kW PEM unit based on Natural Gas and LPG. The generating costs are estimates for units produced during full scale commercialization, at around 2008.


  It is not anticipated that electricity generated by fuel cells will compete directly with the grid. But if fuel cells are run in a CHP mode, and it is anticipated that most will, the cost of total energy is significantly lower than the cost of electricity. Heat can be sold at 20% above fuel value, and fuel cells produce about as much heat on a kW basis as they do electricity.

THE TIMESCALE ENVISAGED FOR DEPLOYMENT:

  We believe that the first fully commercial PEM units will be in the field, in the UK, in late 2003, and that large scale production of PEM systems will have taken place in the UK by late 2005.

  An estimate of annual production in terms of MW is shown below. We anticipate a large jump in production in 2005 and again in 2006 as a consequence of the stepping up of production technology. At that time legacy manufacturing systems deployed for early stage production will need to be replaced by new machining and assembly technologies to match volume and production cost requirements. These facilities may either be leased, full production facilities subcontracted, or the entire manufacturing process may be licensed to independent suppliers.

POTENTIAL ENERGY PRODUCTION WITHIN THIS TIMESCALE:

  The following table provides Intelligent Energy's estimate of energy production based on the supply of our PEM fuel cells through to 2010. This has been split across the three main market sectors that we anticipate that Intelligent Energy products will be supplied in to.

IE MW SALES BY SECTOR


2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Portable
0.2
2.0
12
38
67
95
150
190
DG
0.1
5.2
31
158
330
500
825
1,240
Automotive
0.1
0.3
2
54
429
975
2,430
3,450
Total
0.4
7.5
45
250
830
1,570
3,405
4,880

December 2002





 
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