Memorandum by the Great North Eastern
Railway (GNER) (OPT 15)
OVERCROWDING ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 GNER welcomes the opportunity to respond
to this inquiry. Overcrowding is an extremely important issue
for GNER, which is seeking to respond to passenger demand by running
still more services on the East Coast Main Line (ECML).
1.2 GNER started operations in April 1996
after securing an initial seven year franchise to operate high-speed,
long-distance passenger services on the ECML between London Kings
Cross, the East Midlands, Yorkshire, the North East of England
and Scotland.
1.3 In accordance with the terms of reference
for this inquiry, GNER has endeavoured to confine its evidence
to services as far north as Berwick Upon Tweed. GNER serves a
total of 24 stations in England, with passengers being principally
generated from London Kings Cross, Peterborough, Grantham, Doncaster,
Wakefield, Leeds, York, Darlington, Durham and Newcastle.
1.4 GNER employs a total workforce of 3,100
people. The company has won multiple awards for its investments
in training and in the development of its industry-leading approach
to customer service.
1.5 In January 2002, GNER was awarded a
two-year franchise extension to April 2005, as part of a £100
million investment agreement with the Strategic Rail Authority
(SRA). GNER has not received a Government grant since April 2001
and will not do so as part of the extended franchise.
1.6 GNER has consistently been rated as
the best long-distance Train Operating Company (TOC) in Britain,
as evidenced in the SRA's six monthly National Passenger Surveys
(NPS), and has always out-scored the industry average on all the
parameters measured.
2. LEVELS OF
OVERCROWDING ON
GNER SERVICES
2.1 GNER is the first to acknowledge that
it inherited a relatively good infrastructure from British Rail.
Nevertheless, British Rail had been forced through financial constraints
to electrify and modernise the East Coast Main Line on the basis
of modest numbers of trains and passengers.
2.2 At the time of privatisation in 1996,
the ECML Train Operating Unit of British Rail was running just
over 80 trains per day, and was using its complete freedom on
pricing to manage demand in accordance with the supply of seats.
2.3 When GNER took over the franchise, three
significant changes took place which were to drive the growth
of passenger numbers.
2.4 Firstly, GNER was committed as a business
to growing passenger numbers. GNER immediately began a programme
of improved service quality, incentives and discounts to win new
passengers to the railways.
2.5 Secondly, statutory fare caps in certain
markets—such as season tickets—caused the real cost
of rail travel to fall for many passengers.
2.6 Thirdly, the sustained economic growth
of the UK and the especially strong recovery in the north of England
generated significant additional demand.
2.7 The result of these changes was that
passenger journeys soared to 15.9 million in the last full year
prior to the Hatfield disaster of October 2000. In the year ended
5 January 2002, passenger journeys grew by 6.6% to 14.5 million.
2.8 To cater for this growth, GNER now runs
124 trains per day. The majority of these continue to be provided
through more efficient working of the existing "225"
electric train fleet and a small number of diesel High Speed Trains
(HSTs).
2.9 GNER has supplemented its fleet in a
way unique to the UK rail industry through the leasing of four
Class 373/2 train sets from Eurostar (UK) Ltd., three of which
are in daily operation. These have been providing an additional
eleven weekday services between Leeds and London since June 2002,
boosting service frequency on this important route to record levels.
These "White Rose" services have proved to be extremely
popular with passengers, especially as their large number of seats
has considerably improved the journey experience of London-bound
commuters from Newark, Grantham and Peterborough.
2.10 In addition, under an agreement recently
concluded with Angel Trains, an additional coach will be added
to each of GNER's HST sets from the commencement of the winter
2003 timetable.
2.11 Although GNER is predominantly a long-distance
train operator for business and leisure travellers, its fast,
frequent and high quality services have attracted a significant
volume of commuters in the travel-to-work areas of Doncaster-Wakefield-Leeds
and York-Darlington-Durham-Newcastle. This contributes to very
high loadings at peak times.
2.12 As is to emphasise this point, Regional
Planning Guidance for the North East to 2016 (RPG1), launched
by the Government on 20 November 2002, specifically identifies
overcrowding on the ECML, especially on trains north of Newcastle,
as a significant problem.
2.13 Very high loadings are not a problem
exclusively for Standard Class passengers. GNER competes vigorously
with the airlines and the private car for business travel through
comfort, speed, convenience and quality of customer service. Demand
for First Class travel is, therefore, very high, in particular
during the morning peak approaching London—when many business
travellers wish to arrive at the same time as commuters—and
in the early evening leaving London, especially on Thursdays and
Fridays. The many MPs who travel between London and their constituencies
by GNER will be well aware of this.
2.14 The Committee's terms of reference
for this inquiry quite rightly refer to the potential consequences
of overcrowding for safety. Safety has always been GNER's absolute
priority, which has been recognised by the Royal Society for the
Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) with a Gold Award this year, and
by GNER's achievement of Level 7 status in the International Safety
Rating Scheme (ISRS). GNER was one of the first TOCs to join the
"CIRAS" confidential reporting system, prior to its
national roll-out.
2.15 Despite these efforts, the company,
its passengers and its employees have felt the consequences of
two horrific accidents—Hatfield and Great Heck—caused
by conditions outside the control of GNER.
2.16 Overcrowding was not identified as
a factor contributing to the deaths or injuries incurred in either
of these tragic events. A report by the Health & Safety Executive
in 1999 ("Implications of overcrowding on railways")
states that "there is no evidence to suggest that overcrowding
per se is a safety issue." This supported the findings
of the 1989 report into the Clapham Junction Railway Accident
where the "unchallenged evidence" of an "eminent
pathologist" was "that the severity of injury, or the
risk of fatality, was no greater for standing than seated passengers."
The report went on: "Had the trains been overloaded, those
passengers having to stand as a result would not have been placed
at any greater risk than those seated."
2.17 There is, however, never room for complacency
with safety. GNER is investing heavily on two counts to reduce
further the risk of injuries to its passengers and employees.
Firstly, through the introduction of technology and training methods
designed to reduce the likelihood of accidents caused by Signals
Passed at Danger (SPADs). Secondly, through the complete refurbishment
of the Mark 4 "225" rolling stock fleet to bring the
vehicles up to modern standards.
2.18 The long term solution to the safety
issue is to increase GNER's capacity to move passengers in comfort,
a means for achieving which is set out later in this paper.
3. FACTORS WHICH
CAN TRIGGER
OVERCROWDING
3.1 With GNER's services already very busy,
service disruption can cause the problem of overcrowding to escalate
dramatically.
3.2 GNER's train performance for much of
2002 has been poor, largely as a result of Anglo-Scottish services
(which call at stations in England) being delayed due to linespeed
restrictions at Dolphinstone, south of Edinburgh.
3.3 At times of disruption, passengers will
understandably wish to board the first available train, rather
than the one which they perhaps intended to use or the one on
which they had booked a seat. Indeed, in such circumstances GNER
has in the past frequently suspended seat reservations and ticket
restrictions in order simply to move as many people as possible
as quickly as possible.
3.4 Whilst the short term amelioration of
delay in this way may be acceptable, the experience of the passenger
is likely to alienate him or her from using the train again, especially
if the user is not a regular rail traveller.
3.5 The short term objective, therefore,
must be to improve performance and service reliability sufficiently
so as to reduce the incidence of overcrowding.
3.6 As part of its £100 million investment
over the next three years, GNER (with train manufacturers and
other rail partners) is working hard to improve the reliability
of its rolling stock. The Class 91 electric locomotive refurbishment
programme has already reduced delay minutes due to failed locomotives
from 43,000 minutes in 1998 to 29,000 minutes in 2000, and further
progress is being made. In addition, improved reliability is already
resulting from a major re-engineering programme of the HST power
cars.
3.7 Around three quarters of delays to GNER
services are caused by other TOCs or by infrastructure problems.
GNER is working closely with Network Rail to eliminate as many
as possible of the latter.
4. THE FUTURE:
COPING WITH
DEMAND AND
AVOIDING OVERCROWDING
4.1 GNER does not anticipate that any of
the factors which have caused the growth of its ridership in recent
years are likely to subside.
4.2 GNER believes in encouraging rail travel,
and will not be embarking on a programme of pricing its customers
off of its services. Indeed, to attempt to do so would make the
business as a whole more vulnerable to competition from low-cost
airlines and the private car.
4.3 Research undertaken for GNER has found
that rail is consistently the cheapest means of travelling to
London from Edinburgh, Newcastle or Leeds. This is an important
commercial advantage for GNER which the company will seek to maintain.
4.4 This is not to say that the company
will allow its fare structure to fossilise. GNER will continue
to develop its yield management techniques, learning from the
experiences of the airline industry.
4.5 On 28 November 2002, GNER announced
the appointment of Manugistics, a world leading company in the
field, to develop information technology-based techniques designed
optimise seat availability and charge the right fare for each
journey. GNER is the first passenger rail company in the world
to adopt such an approach.
4.6 GNER is a profitable business and makes
no apology for this. In order to operate without public subsidy,
GNER must demonstrate a fair rate of return to its parent company
and to its shareholders. A solid financial performance is also
the best way for GNER to continue to pay competitive salaries
to key employees.
4.7 GNER's extended franchise agreement
has some of the characteristics of a public-private partnership,
including as it does a unique profit share arrangement with the
SRA. Any profits generated by GNER beyond a specified return on
sales are specifically reinvested into the ECML, further to improve
reliability and quality for passengers.
4.8 GNER believes that the trend for more
people to commute to London across longer distances will continue,
due to two main factors: high London house prices which are continuing
to rise faster than in other parts of the UK; and the relatively
low cost of commuting where season ticket prices are pegged to
RPI minus 1%.
4.9 With all of the drivers for passenger
growth still in place, GNER believes that a significant increase
in its capacity is required. Until 2001, it was the policy of
the SRA to secure a step change in the capacity of the ECML by
means of a major upgrade of the infrastructure, to the benefit
of all passenger and freight operators using the route. For a
variety of reasons, there is little prospect of the upgrade proceeding
in the foreseeable future.
4.10 A significant new initiative on rolling
stock will be required in any case as a result of GNER's leased
Class 373/2 trains having to be returned to Eurostar (UK) Ltd
in 2007 to coincide with the completion of the Channel Tunnel
Rail Link (CTRL). In addition, GNER's small fleet of diesel HSTs
will soon be approaching the end of its operational life.
4.11 Therefore, GNER has been developing
an initiative to enable additional capacity to be delivered through
the more imaginative use of existing capacity and the procurement
of new rolling stock.
4.12 The SRA recently undertook a consultation
exercise on the possible future use of main London termini by
exclusive operators, essentially combining long distance and local
trains into integrated businesses. GNER believes that such an
arrangement could provide significant capacity benefits at London
Kings Cross. GNER would ask whether it is sensible for a lightly-loaded
four-car suburban train to take a path which could be utilised
by a busy 9-coach long distance train?
4.13 Meanwhile, GNER has been examining
the possible acquisition of up to 12 new trains, providing much-needed
extra seating capacity whilst replacing the Class 373/2 units
and the HSTs. A new fleet of GNER trains could be diesel-powered
with a "go anywhere" capability, although future fleet
options are still being assessed. One of the attractions of a
diesel fleet is that destinations currently not served by GNER
could be added to the network, enabling the refurbished fleet
of electric trains to be used more effectively between the core
destinations where overcrowding is most severe.
4.14 GNER has previously explained to the
Committee the long lead time required for the delivery of new
rolling stock—60 months according to the manufacturers.
The company has been examining with the SRA the possibility of
extending its franchise by four further years to 2009 to enable
the new train fleet to be procured.
December 2002
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