Memorandum by the Strategic Rail Authority
(OPT 17)
OVERCROWDING ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT
INTRODUCTION
1. The purpose of this paper is to assist
the Committee in its inquiry into "Overcrowding on Public
Transport", announced by Press Notice 04/2002-03 on 27 November
2002.
2. The statutory purposes of the Strategic
Rail Authority (SRA) are set out in the Transport Act 2000 and
are:
— To promote the use of the railway
network for the carriage of passengers and goods;
— To secure the development of the
railway network; and
— To contribute to the development
of an integrated system of transport of passengers and goods.
3. The SRA's Directions and Guidance from
the Secretary of State set as the primary objectives of the SRA
the achievement of the key targets in the Government's Ten Year
Plan for Transport, including:
— To reduce overcrowding in London
to meet the SRA's standards by 2010.
4. The Directions and Guidance also require
the SRA to explain, in its overall strategy, how it proposes to
deliver the Government's objectives and, in particular, to identify
the franchises where capacity and/or overcrowding problems are
most acute, and the quantified capacity increases required to
deliver the Ten Year Plan targets.
5. The SRA is under a duty to work within
the resources allocated to it and to secure value for money from
its expenditure.
6. The SRA's initial Strategic Plan, published
in January 2002, assumed for costing purposes no change to existing
policies on fares, capacity utilisation and overcrowding. However,
the Plan envisaged the need for review in these areas and consultation
exercises have since been launched on fares and capacity utilisation.
Overcrowding standards—which currently reflect British Rail
practice from the 1980s—will be reviewed in terms of scope
(which Train Operating Companies they apply to) and of definition
(to ensure this best reflects the impact of overcrowding). This
will feed into our Capacity Utilisation Strategy.
MANAGING OVERCROWDING
7. Overcrowding needs to be defined in relation
to the nature of the service provided. On many local train journeys,
during peak periods, standing for up to 20 minutes is generally
acceptable. On longer distance services passengers reasonably
expect to get a seat.
8. Overcrowding is most concentrated during
the daily commuting peaks and during holiday periods on long distance
services. For the commuting peak most people have similar working
hours and it follows that the majority of many Train Operating
Companies' (TOCs) passengers are travelling to and from work,
and, as most people have similar working hours, it follows that
most people want to travel at the same time. Because of this,
more trains are needed during the peak than off-peak.
9. Long distance services can manage overcrowding
through seat reservation, as is done on airlines and coaches.
There is however, passenger resistance to compulsory reservation
as well as an understandable desire to retain a "walk-up"
service.
10. There are currently three methods by
which the SRA manages overcrowding:
(i) General provision in the Franchise Agreement
(FA), requiring the operator to use reasonable endeavours to provide
sufficient capacity. This applies to all services (including summer
holiday traffic or special events) except where a specific capacity
requirement has been made.
(ii) A specific provision in the Passenger
Service Requirement (PSR); eg, "One service shall arrive
in Carlisle between 08:00 and 09:00 weekdays, and shall provide
at least 100 standard seats". This can be worded to specify
an individual train or a time band (as in this example).
(iii) Through the PIXC process. This process
compares proposed train plans with usage, and stipulates a maximum
level of crowding. This is used by the SRA for the ten London
commuter TOCs[3]
and also for services across the Forth Bridge into Edinburgh.
Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs) also operate similar regimes
around other cities. The use of PIXC will be reviewed as more
and better passenger count data becomes available and the SRA
moves to a more proactive approach to service level planning and
development through the new franchising policy announced on 6
November.
11. PIXC is the basis of the overcrowding
standards to which the objective in the SRA's Directions and Guidance
applies. It is therefore explained in some detail later in this
paper.
12. However, PIXC is a management tool.
Where the costs fall on the SRA, we appraise options for reducing
overcrowding against our Planning Criteria. A Business Case for
mitigating overcrowding is required. In addition, the SRA routinely
appraises the benefits of reducing overcrowding when assessing
infrastructure and service enhancements.
CAPACITY UTILISATION
POLICY
13. Better use of existing capacity would
relieve overcrowding on the network, for example by allowing longer
trains to be specified in areas of high demand. On 5 September
2002 the SRA launched a consultation on Capacity Utilisation Policy
(CUP) to explore the views of passenger groups, the industry,
local authorities and other key stakeholders on how to make the
best use of the existing network. This has been prompted by the
success of the railway in attracting more business since privatisation.
Passenger volume is up over 30%, freight volume 48%; and 21% more
train kilometres are being operated. The review will lead to more
punctual trains and improved operational performance m the short
to medium term as well as facilitating further growth. The broad
aims are:
— To formulate clear strategies for
capacity utilisation which will specify the best use of existing
network capacity to meet customer needs—balancing service
provision, maintenance access and performance levels—and
taking into account anticipated changes in demand. They will provide
the link between Government objectives and the use of network
capacity.
— To lead the rail industry in a process
to develop these strategies.
— To help identify where investment
is most needed.
14. The consultation period ended 29 November.
The SRA has analysed the responses and is about to publish its
Statement of Principles ie. the set of principles and criteria
that will lead to best practice in capacity utilisation. Next
Steps will be the National Network Utilisation Strategy which
will provide a statement of capacity for long distance passenger
and freight trains. Then a series of Route Utilisation Strategies
will be prepared to work up forward plans for key routes.
SINGLE OPERATOR
AT LONDON
TERMINALS
15. Following a positive response to its
consultation on combining rail franchises, the SRA is proceeding
with the objective of having a single franchisee at most major
London termini. This will facilitate optimum use of capacity,
improve recovery from service disruption and provide a simplified
interface for passengers. In the first instance this will mean
a Greater Anglia franchise from Liverpool Street for which bidding
will start in the new year, a Greater Western franchise from Paddington,
and a new South West franchise encompassing all domestic services
into Waterloo. Future work will identify the potential for a similar
approach at Kings Cross and Euston.
ROLLING STOCK
16. Since privatisation, over £3.5
billion of new train orders were placed by 31 March 2002, and
some 1,501 new vehicles had been brought into service as at 12
December 2002. All necessary orders to replace Mark I rolling
stock were placed this Summer—total orders of 618 cars for
Connex South Eastern, 785 for South West Trains and 700 for South
Central provide for 400 more cars than stock replaced.
PROJECTS
17. The Strategic Plan provides for major
projects in London and the South East to increase capacity, reduce
overcrowding and improve quality of service. The timing of these
will be subject to powers being granted where necessary and to
budget priorities. The East London Line extensions project consists
of northern and southern extensions to link London Underground's
existing ELL with the national rail network. It is designed to
provide a new cross-London link, this providing congestion relief
on radial routes and at central London termini. Thameslink 2000
is designed to deliver 24 trains per hour between St Pancras Midland
Road and Blackfriars and provide congestion relief to the London
termini and to LUL services. Development work on Crossrail Line
1 (east-west) and Crossrail Line 2 (north east-south west) continues.
Options for Line 1 were announced in March 2002. The shortlist
is based on a core route running from Paddington to Liverpool
Street, Stratford and Canary Wharf. West of London the shortlist
includes Heathrow, Reading, Aylesbury and Watford Junction, and
to the east lines to Shenfield and Ebbsfleet. Development work
on the South London Metro is also continuing to increase service
frequency and better integration of national rail services in
South London.
18. In addition to London projects the Channel
Tunnel Rail Link will allow the introduction of fast new domestic
services; the remodelling of the Leeds Station area has already
allowed GNER to operate an additional eleven services per day
between London and Leeds on the East Coast Main Line; and the
West Coast Main Line upgrade will increase the number of trains
running on the route while reducing journey times. On 9 October
2002 the SRA published its West Coast Strategy consultation document.
OVERCROWDING AND
SAFETY
19. It is for the TOCs and Network Rail
to maintain the rail system as a safe and secure means of transport,
meeting safety criteria drawn up by Her Majesty's Railway Inspectorate
(HMRI), a division of the Health and Safety Executive. All rolling
stock is designed to run safely even when fully loaded. Passenger
loading does not affect a train's stopping performance or its
structural strength; doors on trains are also designed to cope
with crush loading. There is accordingly no statutory safety limit
set by HMRI on the numbers of passengers who can be carried on
trains.
THE PIXC (PASSENGERS
IN EXCESS
OF CAPACITY)
SYSTEM
20. For London (and Forth Bridge) commuter
services, franchise operators are required to plan to provide
sufficient capacity to keep train loadings in standard class accommodation
below specified standards. This allows franchise operators to
adjust the amount of capacity they plan to provide in line with
variations in demand.
21. For journeys of more than 20 minutes
the nominal capacity of a train is deemed equal to the number
of standard class seats. For journeys of 20 minutes or less it
is generally based on:
— for slam door stock 110% of the number
of standard class seats; and
— for most sliding door stock the number
of standard class seats plus the number of people who can stand
at a density of 0.55 m2 per passenger.
(If an operator proposes to use rolling stock
whose internal layout is radically different from that of existing
vehicles, the figure of 0.55 m2 may not be appropriate. In such
cases, we will consider what alternative criterion to apply).
22. In practice it is not always possible
to keep loadings within these capacities:
— because loadings vary considerably
from day to day and TOCs currently operate a walk-on service with
no boarding restrictions; and
— because demand within the peak periods
peaks strongly at certain times.
23. Accordingly, we allow "load factor"
standards to be exceeded by a factor known as PIXC (or passengers
in excess of capacity).
24. PIXC is a measure of the degree to which
load factor standards are exceeded in practice. The definition
is best illustrated by an example:
| train 1 capacity 800 |
actual load 750 | passengers in excess 0 (not -50)
|
| train 2 capacity 800 | actual load 850
| passengers in excess 50 |
| both trains capacity 1,600 | actual load 1,600
| passengers in excess 50 (not 0) |
25. The measure is always used in connection with groups
of trains (eg. routes, TOCs, etc) and is normally taken at defined
count points. It is then expressed as a percentage (the total
number of passengers in excess of capacity on the trains being
considered, divided by the total number of passengers on the trains).
Thus in the example above, PIXC is 50 divided by 1,600 or 3.1%.
Because the morning peak is more concentrated than the evening
peak, and because of peaking within the peak, PIXC is not uniform.
26. It is conventional to measure PIXC for services operating
as planned (ie. no cancellations, minimal delays and all trains
formed of the correct stock). This separates issues about the
adequacy of the plan from issues about its delivery.
27. The maximum acceptable level of PIXC is 3% over the
morning and evening peak together, and 4.5% for either peak considered
alone. Crowding within the 3% limit may not be unduly concentrated
on any routes or services.
28. Operators must produce a train plan to show how they
will deliver the capacity (number of standard class seats) to
accommodate demand for peak services. If the operator fails to
meet this plan a charge is made under the franchise agreement.
These charges are known as Short Formations Incentive Payments.
In the calendar year to October 2002 operators collectively paid
£4.4 million in such charges compared with £5.4 million
in the same period in 2001.
29. As a requirement of franchise agreements, operators
collect loading data, at least once a year, for all weekday services
arriving in London (or Edinburgh for the Forth Bridge services)
between 07:00 and 09:59, and for outbound trains departing central
London or Edinburgh between 16:00 and 18:59. The count is normally
taken between mid-September and mid-December; this is when fewer
passengers are on holiday, and so it is the period of highest
steady demand. The PIXC count is taken at the point of highest
demand—this may vary with each train; for example some Sussex
coast services are busier on arrival at East Croydon, than they
are when they arrive at the London terminus.
30. Most counts are still taken manually—passengers
are counted either as they leave or board a train, or when they
are on board. They are taken by third parties authorised by the
SRA on behalf of the TOC. The main disadvantage with manual counts
is that they are snap-shots of the number of passengers on a particular
service, on one day of the year at one point in its journey. This
method also has the problem that it is not totally accurate, especially
when the trains are overcrowded. And, getting repeat counts using
this process is fairly expensive. For these reasons the SRA are
keen to see electronic Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) systems
used.
31. There are three basic Automatic Passenger Counting
(APC) systems used in the UK and abroad:
— Passenger load weighing system (PLWS)—this
in effect weighs each carriage and determines the number of passengers
from this. This system is sometimes referred to as PLD (Passenger
Load Determination)—a trademark of AEAT.
— Infra-red door monitoring—this uses pairs
of passive and active infra-red beams to count passengers as they
board or alight the train.
— Footfall door sensors—these count passengers
as they board or alight by using pressure pads in the floor by
the doors.
32. One load weighing system and several IR-beam systems
have been approved by the SRA for providing accurate and secure
information for PIXC or other purposes.
33. However, the SRA's sole concern is to ensure that
any method used is accurate. Each system has its strengths and
weaknesses, but they all have advantages over manual counts in
that they can provide accurate and continuous monitoring relatively
cheaply (once the equipment has been installed). Because several
readings will be taken during the count period an average can
be arrived at, this smoothes out the results and is statistically
more meaningful.
34. Currently some TOCs do not have consistent data on
passenger flows outside peak periods. The APC systems give them
this knowledge which can be used to adjust train diagrams, plan
maintenance, and predict effects due to disruption and engineering
work (eg to decide how many substitute buses to provide).
35. There are strict criteria set by the SRA to ensure
that count data is accurate and impartial, using APC systems which,
increasingly is being specified with new rolling stock orders.
36. Once the count has been completed and verified the
TOC estimates loadings for the next year. They use these estimates
to design a train plan (usually by modification of the old one)
showing stopping patterns and train lengths, that delivers sufficient
capacity to stay within the PIXC ceiling.
37. If PIXC exceeds the standards set, the SRA may require
a feasibility study into measures to restore the limit. There
are various ways of alleviating overcrowding-timetable changes;
removing First Class carriages; providing discounted tickets in
the shoulder peaks. If more capacity (coaches or trains) is needed
it can be required at the SRA's discretion and on the basis that
the SRA must meet 80%-100% of the cost.
38. The latest published results on PIXC levels are at
Annex 1. These are based on Autumn 2001 counts.
December 2002
3
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