Memorandum by Virgin Trains (OPT 27)
OVERCROWDING ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT
VIRGIN TRAINS
1. Virgin Trains is the brand name for Virgin
Rail Group Holdings Ltd (VRG). The company is jointly owned by
Virgin Management (51%) and Stagecoach Holdings (49%). Virgin
Trains operates two major intercity train franchises—CrossCountry
Trains Ltd and West Coast Trains Ltd. This evidence addresses
the overcrowding issues on our CrossCountry services.
BACKGROUND
2. Passengers expect to get a seat on intercity
journeys of any significant length. Market research consistently
shows Availability of a Seat as the third most important requirement
for long distance passengers after Reliability and Punctuality.
The only exception is where intercity services pass through large
conurbations and some commuters elect to stand for short distances
to save time on their journeys.
3. History shows that when long-distance
trains are regularly overcrowded, intercity passengers migrate
to other means of transport. The revenue-forecasting model used
by the rail industry predicts an accelerating loss of income as
overcrowding increases. It is therefore in the intercity operator's
interest to minimise overcrowding and match changes in demand.
4. Virgin Trains plans on the basis that
every passenger is seated, apart from a few short distance commuter
flows. The train managers count the passengers on every train
at several points on every trip and this information forms our
database for managing overcrowding. Virgin Trains' franchise agreements
specify a range of measures to ensure that overcrowding is minimised.
For example, West Coast is required to provide at least 350 coaches
in service daily, and CrossCountry is required to provide 15,360
seats daily.
CROSSCOUNTRY
5. CrossCountry is the UK's only national
rail network. It provides long distance intercity services from
Aberdeen to Penzance and connects 115 towns and cities without
the need to change in London. A third of passenger income comes
from journeys of 200 miles or more. It is a growth business, with
passenger journeys growing from 12 million trips pa to 16 million
since 1996—a growth of 33%.
6. This growth has been met by a doubling
in train services from 110 trains a day in 1996 to 200 currently.
Virgin Trains also committed to totally replace the CrossCountry
fleet with the new Voyager trains at a cost of £390 million.
The timetable took three years in consultation and was finally
introduced in September 2002—where it generated an unexpectedly
sudden increase of 40% in passenger journeys over the previous
year.
7. The average load factor in October was
52% across all services, but after three months experience of
the new service it is already clear that a number of services
have been suffering unacceptable levels of overcrowding for two
reasons. The first factor has been the scale of short-distance
passengers transferring to the new Voyager trains as they pass
through the major conurbations. The CrossCountry franchise was
intended to provide long distance travel between large centres
and its trains will never have the capacity to pick up large numbers
of short distance passengers en route.
8. The second factor has been the worsening
punctuality of the national network. Service disruption can cause
overcrowding problems to escalate dramatically, as delayed passengers
naturally crowd onto the first available train. Train congestion
on the national network has worsened significantly since the CrossCountry
timetable was conceived and it is increasingly hard to run long-distance
trains to time. Punctuality is closely linked to overcrowding
in a rail industry with virtually no spare resources. Around 20%
of CrossCountry delay minutes are caused by network congestion.
9. Virgin Trains is committed to resolving
the overcrowding issue. There is no Do Nothing option, as continued
overcrowding will lead to the loss of the very long-distance passengers
and income base that we are seeking to expand in line with government
growth targets. Possible solutions fall into three categories:
a) managing short-distance demand b) expanding capacity and c)
adjusting pricing.
MANAGING DEMAND
10. Remove some intermediate stops
From 12 January we removed some short-distance
stops from selected CrossCountry services in the Midlands to provide
relief to long-distance trains and return local passengers to
their regional services.
11. Re-timetable to strengthen core routes
From 18 May we shall re-timetable some services
to create additional seats on the core network, where the overcrowding
is worst. This will allow us to double the length of some trains
and put the longest trains where they are most needed, eg on Anglo-Scottish
services.
12. Reservations
There is a growing conflict between the freedom
to "walk up" unreserved and the certainty of getting
a seat. We are increasingly encouraging long-distance passengers
to book in advance so that we can spread the demand onto quieter
services through cheaper fares and reservations. From May, CrossCountry
will follow other intercity operators in advertising all its services
as "Reservation Recommended".
EXPANDING CAPACITY
13. More train slots
It is becoming clear that the rail network is
now suffering serious congestion on the critical corridors/bottlenecks
and there is no hope of finding additional fast slots to strengthen
the CrossCountry network at popular times. In the light of this,
we have agreed to withdraw our proposal for a new two-hourly service
Birmingham-Swindon-Paddington from next May.
14. Retain old High Speed Trains
CrossCountry retained 17 of its old High Speed
Trains to provide overcrowding relief whilst the new timetable
bedded down. The SRA require us to reduce this to six High Speed
Trains from May and we shall use these to enable some Voyager
services to be doubled up on popular routes. There is currently
no agreement to retain any HSTs after September 2003.
15. Lengthen new trains
About half the Voyager fleet is four-car and
the other half five-car. An obvious overcrowding benefit would
be to lengthen all trains to five-cars to provide an additional
2,200 seats together with greater operational flexibility. This
would require the purchase of an additional 38 coaches at about
£53 million. Unfortunately all attempts to make a commercial
business case have foundered on insufficient payback for the investment.
The only way forward now lies in raising fares to deliver the
missing income and/or persuading the SRA to provide socio-economic
support.
PRICING
16. Cheapest fares on quietest trains
About 50% of CrossCountry passengers travel
on walk-up Saver tickets where there will always be a risk of
overcrowding. Virgin Value fares (APEX in InterCity days) were
introduced at even bigger discounts to encourage passengers to
reserve on the quieter trains. This policy will continue, but
it is taking time to adjust the pricing and reservations to the
new travel patterns.
17. Raise prices for committed investment
A longer-term issue is the declining value of
the Saver fares to train operators. 50% of CrossCountry income
is now locked into a ticket which has reduced its value by RPI-1
for the last five years. This has been good news for volume growth,
but is bad news for investment, as it is becomes ever harder to
make a commercial case for investing in additional rolling stock
to match the growth. There is a good case for allowing increases
in Saver fares where these can be linked to tangible investment
in congestion relief such as additional trains and capacity.
SAFETY
18. A new fleet of trains brings the opportunity
for once-in-a-generation safety developments. The Voyager trains
offer Train Protection Warning System to prevent SPADs: sophisticated
wheel-slide protection: front-end crumple zones twice the strength
of high speed trains: crumple zones throughout the train: black
box safety recorders and rapid passenger evacuation through wide
doorways
19. Trains are designed to operate safely
at crush loadings, as it is impracticable to regulate passenger
numbers at every calling point (CrossCountry trains call at up
to 30 stations with stops as short as one minute). Whilst crush
loadings on intercity journey lengths are totally unacceptable
on environmental grounds, there is no evidence that they create
any greater safety risk. A 1999 Health & Safety report Implications
of Overcrowding on Railways concluded that "there is no evidence
to suggest that overcrowding per se is a safety issue".
CONCLUSIONS
20. Intercity overcrowding will need addressing
as demand continues to rise, fuelled by worsening transport congestion
and ever cheapening Saver fares.
21. CrossCountry overcrowding will be significantly
improved this year as timetables are adjusted, reservations encouraged
and passengers are diverted to quieter trains.
22. The government/SRA have a pivotal role
to play in planning ahead to avoid overcrowding through capacity
management and investment.
January 2003
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