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Mr. John Wilkinson (Ruislip-Northwood) (Con): I apologise to the Minister for not being here for his speech, but I had to attend a civic funeral in my constituency. I also apologise to the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell), but I am sure that I would endorse his remarks.
It was notable that Members from both sides of the House who have constituencies near Heathrow airport opposed the building of a third east-west runway there. Some hon. Members who have always supported the full development of the airport, including the hon. Member for Feltham and Heston (Alan Keen) and myself, believe that a further runway would be unacceptable on environmental grounds. To locate a runway to the north of Heathrow, between the A4 and the M4, in an area of green belt with no proper surface access—or tube access, where an additional terminal and parking facilities would be necessary—is wholly unacceptable. It would also cause great damage to Harmondsworth village and its historic sites.
The Government have rightly adopted stricter criteria for engine emission pollution when considering whether a third runway should be built. It is not acceptable, for all Londoners, and I hope that the Government will bear that in mind. The White Paper is half sensible, although I am in serious disagreement with one of its suggestions.
The Government are correct to take a gradualist approach. The future of air transport is exceedingly uncertain. We are correct also in trying to make the best use of existing facilities, rather than going down the predict and provide route, which many hon. Members have described.
It is noteworthy that those who really understand aviation—such as the hon. Member for Crewe and Nantwich (Mrs. Dunwoody), who chairs the Transport Committee and whose authority on these matters we applaud, and the hon. Members for Manchester, Blackley (Mr. Stringer) and for Crawley (Laura
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Moffatt)—all spoke eloquently about civil aviation's economic benefits to this country. We are all deeply saddened that, during our political lifetimes, we have seen great industries virtually disappear from the United Kingdom—shipbuilding, textiles, whole swathes of engineering, and much of motor and motor-bike manufacture too to a large extent—but civil air transport is a great provider of jobs. It brings prosperity to whole regions of the country that otherwise would have been passed by, and it brings in a great deal of foreign exchange to Britain, which we so badly need.
The Government also need a measure of commendation for stressing the regional development aspect of civil aviation. One has only to consider the crucial factor of air access for the highlands and islands and air access to important airports from the Crown dependencies, alluded to by the hon. Member for Crewe and Nantwich. I chair the British Manx group, and the fact that airlines from the Isle of Man no longer have access to Heathrow is regretted on the island.
There are many considerations, and I wish to put before the House some of the uncertainties. Given the current oil price rise, there is a possibility of a serious reduction in the profit expectations of the low-cost carriers, Ryanair and easyJet. Big airlines, such as United and US Airways have been under chapter 11 protection in the United States. Swissair and Sabena went bankrupt after the 11 September tragedy. Alitalia is now in trouble. The conjunction of the effect of the 11 September atrocities and the rise in oil prices poses a serious challenge to the industry, as does equipment: whether major carriers will go down the A380 route—ultra-large, jumbo-sized airliners—or something like the 7E7 ultra-economic airliner, which is better suited to point-to-point operations.
Another key question is whether hub airports are of prime importance or whether, in the new civil air transport environment, there will be further development of point-to-point services. I rather incline towards the latter, but if we want to develop civil aviation in Britain, we must also take into account the social and economic changes in the south-east of England. With the Thames gateway developments and the likelihood of further growth in population, business and economic activities in the corridor from north-east London, to Stansted and on towards Cambridge, the Government are correct to go for a second runway at Stansted. That is where much of the growth in civil air transport movements has occurred because of the burgeoning of the low-cost carrier sector.
It would be sensible in the longer term to start the further development of Stansted, which could be a better location for a major hub airport than Heathrow in the decades ahead, although the Government disagree. If there were, for example, further al-Qaeda terrorist outrages, people would question the wisdom of building a further runway at Heathrow, in the middle of a very densely populated area. I doubt the wisdom of that.
There is still further potential—is there not?—for high-speed rail in Europe, and we have only started to see the beginning of its development in this country, with the eventual extension of the channel link to St. Pancras.
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The Government are on the right track, especially in terms of the development to the full of existing airports. As the hon. Member for Luton, North (Mr. Hopkins), who is another aviation authority, might tell us, Luton airport offers immense potential, with the extension to the runway foreseen in the White Paper and the development of a parallel taxiway and other infrastructure and services. Birmingham, too, has potential with another runway, as does Edinburgh. We are, by an large, getting it right. What pleases me most is that we as a country are acknowledging that aviation is a golden goose for Britain. We must not let the Liberal Democrats kill it with crazy tax impositions.
5.15 pm
Mr. Kelvin Hopkins (Luton, North) (Lab): I rise to praise the Government for their wise decision to give the go-ahead to the expansion of Luton airport, making the maximum use of its single runway—extended, of course. That is a significant development, which will quadruple the number of passengers going through the airport and make a serious contribution to passenger numbers in south-east England. In addition, the airport is a major economic boon to my constituency. Although situated in the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Luton, South (Margaret Moran), my constituents look to the airport for jobs following the decline in manufacturing in my area. The Vauxhall and Electrolux plants have closed, as have many smaller companies, so Luton airport is important to us and I applaud the Government for their decision.
We would like the Government to encourage and facilitate Luton airport's expansion at an early date, because Luton could solve some of the problems that we have been hearing about this afternoon. A green light to growth at Luton could alleviate, at least in the medium term, some of the tensions and difficulties at Heathrow and Stansted. Initially, we thought that BAA was pushing for its own airports to be expanded and that Luton was being marginalised—indeed, I think it was on no one's radar screen but ours. The decision is testimony not only to successful lobbying by us, but to the fact that the Government listened to the arguments. We made the case and, in the end, the Government acknowledged that it was a sensible one.
We have heard talk of forecasts of the growth in air passenger traffic over the next 25 or 30 years. Forecasts are always hazardous. Passenger forecasts for the channel tunnel proved to be overblown—its construction was predicated on forecasts that never came to fruition and seem unlikely ever to do so. The salvation of the channel tunnel's economics lies in pushing a lot of rail freight through it, not in passenger numbers. We can make the trains faster and encourage as many people as possible to travel by Eurostar, but there will never be enough passengers to make the channel tunnel economic; vast quantities of freight are needed to do that.
The White Paper sets out a range of forecasts. Some may prove to be overblown, but whether or not they are correct, Luton's case will remain strong. If the high forecasts prove to be accurate, Luton will clearly be needed, but it will be needed even if the lowest forecasts are not realised. We can then make a case, not for having additional runways at other airports, but for maximising the use of existing runways at those airports
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and maximising Luton's expansion on the single runway solution. I have here some figures, drawn from the White Paper and elsewhere, which state that maximum use of existing runways at Heathrow could result in an extra 26 million passengers passing through that airport, at Gatwick an extra 11.5 million passengers, and at Stansted an extra 10 million passengers; and developing Luton could result in an extra 23 million or 24 million passengers passing through the airport. Therefore, even if no new runways were built, airports in the south-east could accommodate an extra 70 million passengers a year. If serious problems arise in relation to oil or terrorism, or if we encounter economic problems that we cannot predict, or if we face serious environmental problems with which the world has to deal, there might be less demand for air passenger transport than we have come to expect.
I suspect that those additional 70 million passengers will not be enough, but Luton can make a great contribution even at the lowest forecast. Moreover, if expansion of other airports proves unacceptable to this Government or a future one, there is the option of a second runway at Luton, which would make the airport ten times its present size. That option was rejected as unfeasible by the White Paper, but it remains a possibility in the longer term. Even in difficult circumstances, Luton might provide solutions.
We need economic expansion locally to compensate for job losses in manufacturing. We have a ready-made work force, in contrast to other airports, who are experiencing labour shortages. There is significant unemployment in parts of my constituency and that of my hon. Friend the Member for Luton, South, even though Luton is in the south-east of England, so we can provide workers for jobs. I can say without fear of contradiction that we have the best further education college in the country, as it was the first one to be awarded beacon status. We have the capacity to train people locally in every possible skill, and have a work force who need work.
There is everything to be said for expanding Luton and giving it the go-ahead as soon as possible. My only qualification concerns the master plan. Yesterday, I spoke to the airport management, who say that the time scale for its completion is too short. It is a time-consuming exercise that they want to get right, so I urge my hon. Friend the Minister to allow a little more time for the plan to be completed properly.
Finally, to strike a note of current interest, I am pleased that yesterday the England football team flew from Luton. As an English person, I hope that they will win, and I hope that the Scots, Welsh and Irish will support us—but that is another story. The team flew from Luton in a British Airways aircraft, and we were pleased to see that aircraft there.
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