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Mr. Mullin: There has been rather a lot of rhetoric in this case, though.
Sir Patrick Cormack: The Minister may say that, but while I do not criticise his good faith, intentions or credentials, I repeat that I think that more could be done to highlight the appalling nature of the regime and to try to motivate others in Africa to do something about it.
My plea to the Minister is that he will be reinforced by the consensus that has clearly been apparent throughout this debate, and recognise that people of all political persuasions on both sides of the House are united in their condemnation and in their desire to support Her Majesty's Government in taking a tougher stance. The Government will have our total support in that, and I speak as one who has not flinched from supporting the Government over the Iraq war. I have constantly given my willing support on that, because I believe that what the Prime Minister has done has been both honourable and right. I now ask the Government to behave in respect of Zimbabwe with the same resolve, courage and determination that they showed over Iraq. Surely that is not too much to ask, and if it brings a new consistency to Government foreign policy in their attitude towards repugnant, vile dictatorships, that will be a bonus. I hope that we will get an encouraging response in that vein from the Minister when he winds up.
5.14 pm
Ms Sally Keeble (Northampton, North) (Lab): I apologise for not being here earlier; I had constituency business to deal with, as I pointed out in a note.
I am grateful for the chance to speak in this debate and I want to talk in particular about some of the humanitarian issues, rather than the political ones that have dominated the debate thus far. On my first visit to Zimbabwe, just after Mugabe came to power, I was left with two very compelling impressions. The first was the enormous optimism of people who had just regained control of their country and the excitement about the new Government and—at that point—about Mugabe. The second powerful impression was left by the big massacre that was taking place in the south of the country, and by the accompanying famine. What was happening in the south was being overlooked. The rest of the world was turning a blind eye to it.
I visited Zimbabwe for the second time last autumn. The decline, the complete loss of optimism about what was going to happen and the despair at the course taken by the Zimbabwean Government was one of the most
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horrifying changes that I have ever witnessed in any country. The loss of agricultural output and the economic decay was astonishing and disastrous, and the impact on the people was appalling. To see starving people in Africa used not to be the norm, but it has certainly become so in Zimbabwe.
The political problems are now of a complexity that is hard to get a handle on. I agree completely with those who have said that the forthcoming elections will be crucial. Monitoring them will be important and I suspect that it will be extremely difficult. However, this is not just about the regime of one man. The regime is heavily institutionalised and, whatever happens, the institutionalisation of violence—particularly that affecting young people—is going to take a very long time to unpick. If things to go well in the election, it will still be important to deal with Zimbabwe afterwards virtually as a post-conflict society, because of the regime's impact over the past 18 to 20 years.
We need to look much more closely at what is happening to the population and not only deal with the situation now, but prepare for dealing with it for a long time to come. My hon. Friend the Member for Luton, North (Mr. Hopkins) referred to Amin. Interestingly, although Uganda is now held up as a model of good development, economically it has only just got back to the point that it had reached before Amin came to power. I suspect that, even if the Government of Zimbabwe were to change tomorrow by some complete miracle, very long-term support and assistance would be needed to enable the country to rebuild to the position even of just a couple of years ago.
One issue that tends to get overlooked is the extent of hunger and the need for food. Last year, there was a big debate about whether the needs in the horn of Africa or in southern Africa were the greater. When I visited Zimbabwe, I was told that, although many people suffered from much more acute hunger during the big Ethiopian famine of the 1980s, back then some 20 per cent. of the population were being supported by food aid. However, now some 50 per cent. of the population in Zimbabwe are being supported by food aid. That is an absolutely remarkable dependency level and such support will be needed for the foreseeable future.
I also pay tribute to the work of the non-governmental organisations in trying to meet food needs. They have helped to set up a distribution network for food aid running across the country, which has provided a remarkable service to the people of Zimbabwe. A further problem is that Mugabe is now looking forward to what will happen in the elections. That will mean real pressure being put on the NGOs, which may be unable to fulfil the task, so the problems of the general population in Zimbabwe may become acutely worse.
The NGOs are already coming under real pressure from the regime and have great difficulty in speaking either about what is happening or about the needs of the community. As the Minister will know, the assessment programme has been stopped and Mugabe says that he has enough food. The international community challenges that, but there is the problem of what will happen to people who need food now.
That problem is compounded by HIV/AIDS, which now affects about a third of the adult population. When I last visited Zimbabwe, I was interested in finding out
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about the work being done on HIV/AIDS, particularly the support provided for orphans, of whom there are about 800,000. The Minister knows that our own country would struggle to cope with a problem on that scale and I am sure that he is well aware of the pressing difficulties experienced in trying to contain the problems arising from the numbers of HIV orphans in Zimbabwe.
I recently tabled a question to the Secretary of State for International Development about the projections for the harvest in the coming year in Zimbabwe. Unfortunately, I do not have the figures with me, but if I recall correctly, it is estimated that the harvest will be about 75 per cent. short of meeting the actual food needs of the country. If so, the shortfall will have to be made up through imports, which the Government of Zimbabwe say will be provided. We are told that there will be no hunger problems, but I am sure—and the agencies on the ground are sure—that the Zimbabwean Government estimates are wildly optimistic and that there will be real hardship at the time of next year's harvest. If I recall the seasons rightly, that will be about the time of the election.
I am sure that, from now until the election, the Zimbabwean Government will use their own food aid ruthlessly for political purposes and continue to put pressure on the NGOs that are struggling to meet real food need. The organisations have a difficult space within which to work, but by and large they operate free of political bias. The consequences for the general public will be disastrous. Everything will be done to ensure that Mugabe gets the result that he wants in the election.
I know that the Minister and the Foreign Secretary have encouraged "suggestions, suggestions". I ask them and their ministerial colleagues to look more closely into the possibility of increasing the pressure, particularly in respect of the need for NGOs and other agencies to have greater security and space within which to operate. In looking for a model to follow, they might like to reflect on the sort of action taken in respect of western Darfur.
The UK Government have, rightly, been at the forefront of providing assistance to Zimbabwe, in terms of food and support for work on HIV/AIDS. The question is not whether we are prepared to offer international aid, but how effectively it can be deployed. The Government of Zimbabwe want to control the provision of food aid, for political purposes. I hope that my hon. Friend the Minister will work with colleagues, in the UN and the rest of the international community, to provide extra space for the agencies that provide the assistance to operate in, and to ensure that the aid is provided without political bias. I hope that he will also ensure that the distribution systems set up by NGOs such as the World Food Programme and its partner agencies continue to operate, as about half of Zimbabwe's population need to be fed.
In addition, I hope that the Government will look at the longer-term strategies to make sure that support programmes in connection with the food crisis and other service needs in Zimbabwe remain in place, regardless of what happens at the political level.
My visit to Zimbabwe last year was among the most horrifying that I have ever experienced, in Africa or anywhere else. It was uniquely clear that the hardship suffered by the population—the hunger, the catastrophic sickness levels, the hospitals that lack
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nurses, medicines and doctors and which routinely refuse to treat HIV/AIDS patients—were entirely the result of decisions by the Zimbabwean Government. It is exceptionally important that the international community makes the point that that Government must make space for the provision of basic humanitarian services.
Other pressing needs have to do with the abuses of human rights and the forthcoming election. However, I support the work done by this Government, with the Governments of South Africa and other nations, to bring pressure to bear on the Government of Zimbabwe with a view to securing change in that country. In particular, the hope is that elements in ZANU-PF will start to realise that they cannot continue to act as they have been acting, and that they must reach an accommodation with other parties at some point. In that way, we can ensure that there will be free and fair elections.
5.27 pm
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