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Mr. Edward Davey (Kingston and Surbiton) (LD): What does the Minister have to say to the Royal National Institute of the Blind, which has been very concerned about the impact of postal voting on partially sighted and blind people? What measures will he take in the forthcoming referendums to ensure that those people have a choice of how to vote?

Mr. Raynsford: The hon. Gentleman raises an absolutely valid issue, and we have made provision, to which I will refer in due course, for electoral officers to
 
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visit individuals who have difficulty in filling out all-postal voting forms for reasons of visual impairment. Provision is specifically made for that in these orders, and I am sure that he will welcome that.

The evidence is clear that all-postal voting can substantially increase turnout. Despite that success, we recognise that media coverage of the pilots this June highlighted various concerns. The first group of concerns relates to the administration of the process, which generally worked well, albeit to a very tight timetable. Similar concerns will not apply to regional referendums, which have a much longer lead-in time and no constraints, such as are created by nomination dates for candidates, which prevented the advance printing of ballot papers.

The second group of concerns relates to allegations of possible fraud and malpractice associated with postal voting. Many of the concerns raised at the time and subsequently in debates in the House relate to postal voting outside the all-postal pilot areas. Indeed, the hon. Member for Solihull (Mr. Taylor) mentioned the west midlands a moment ago. That was not one of the all-postal pilot areas, but concerns were expressed, as he said, about the use of postal balloting.

Mr. Bernard Jenkin (North Essex) (Con): There were, of course, problems with postal voting outside the pilot areas. Does the Minister think that those problems apply to the pilot areas? Anyone looking at this dispassionately would think that the problems apply to postal voting, whether voluntary or compulsory, full stop, and that they must be addressed before we go down the route of all-postal voting.

Mr. Raynsford: The hon. Gentleman, as he looks into the subject, will establish that problems are associated with any form of balloting. Electoral administrators will advise that difficulties are associated with all types of voting, so it is necessary to have in place proper safeguards and measures to guard against possible abuse to the greatest extent possible. That is essential—it is our commitment—but the fact that, this year and in previous years, allegations of problems and malpractice associated with postal voting have been made does not in itself raise specific problems in relation to all-postal pilots. [Hon. Members: "Yes, it does."] It does not; it raises an issue to do with postal voting generally, not with the intention of holding—

Mr. Jenkin rose—

Mr. Raynsford: If the hon. Gentleman wishes to intervene again, of course, I will give way to him.

Mr. Jenkin: The problems with postal voting have arisen as postal voting has increased in importance in our electoral system. If we vastly increase postal voting, the scale of those problems will vastly increase. We have a well-developed body of law for voting at ballot boxes and polling stations; we do not have a well-developed body of law and practice for large-scale postal voting. That is the problem.
 
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Mr. Raynsford: The hon. Gentleman's hypothesis is simply not supported by the evidence. He should listen to the views of the returning officer for the north-west region, where probably the largest number of problems were reported. The chief executive of Manchester city council, Howard Bernstein, said that, if anything, the number of problems with fraud was probably less this year than in previous years. So I am afraid that the hon. Gentleman's argument about scaling up the extent of all-postal voting is simply not substantiated.

Mr. Graham Stringer (Manchester, Blackley) (Lab): I have heard my right hon. Friend and other Ministers use that quote from Sir Howard Bernstein a number of times. It is accurate, but partial—the rest of the quote goes on to say that there has been an increase in the number of cases of intimidation. That is a joint statement from the regional returning officer and Greater Manchester police. What weight does my right hon. Friend put on the fact that intimidation apparently increased in the north-west?

Mr. Raynsford: Clearly, we must wait for the report from the Electoral Commission, which is carrying out an evaluation, and we will give very considerable attention to that report when it becomes available. However, my hon. Friend will be conscious of the fact that a number of the complaints were associated with actions seeking to ensure the success of individual candidates in elections where candidates were seeking office, which can attract substantial allowances, and there may be something of a financial incentive. Most commentators who consider the referendums, where no such incentive applies, would recognise that the kind of instances that he alludes to are much less likely to occur in the context of a simple referendum question, where no individual stands to gain election as a result.

Mr. Edward Davey: I agree with the Minister: the case for an all-postal ballot in a referendum is much stronger because the incentive for fraud is much less. Given that logic, is he saying therefore that the case for all-postal ballots in local elections is much weaker?

Mr. Raynsford: No, what I was saying—[Laughter]—as the hon. Gentleman and other Opposition Members, whose mirth indicates their reluctance to listen, should be aware, is that we will await the Electoral Commission's response, because it is the body charged by the House—[Interruption.] Frankly, for the hon. Member for Rutland and Melton, from a sedentary position, to talk about ignoring the Electoral Commission's views when he said, from the Conservative Front Bench, that that was exactly what he did shows a degree of inconsistency that I find quite astonishing—but, sadly, we are all too used to that from the Conservative party.

In the light of that media coverage, the Electoral Commission suggested that we delay laying the referendum orders until after it had published its evaluation of the pilots in September. However, as we pointed out to the commission, if we are to hold referendums this autumn, as is widely expected, and allow an adequate campaigning period and public information in line with the commitments that we have given, Parliament needs to approve the necessary
 
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referendum orders before the summer recess. For that reason, I repeat the undertaking that I have given to Parliament

"not to proceed with the all-postal referendums as planned if"

the Electoral Commission's evaluation of the 2004 pilots

"produces convincing evidence leading to the conclusion that it would be unsafe to do so."—[Official Report, 22 June 2004; Vol. 422, c. 1260.]

Mr. David Curry (Skipton and Ripon) (Con): What will be the nature of the advice given by the Electoral Commission? Does the right hon. Gentleman expect it to say, "We do not therefore believe that the Government should proceed with this", or does he expect it to propose a series of factors that the Government should evaluate to decide whether they add up to a significant barrier?

Mr. Raynsford: My understanding from the Electoral Commission is that it will, in its report, specifically address the issue of the all-postal referendums proposed for this autumn and report, which it is required to do by statute, on the experience of the all-postal pilots that took place in June. It is entirely up to the commission to decide how it wishes to address the issue, but it is conscious of the significance of what it says. As I have said, if the evidence is convincing that it would be unsafe to proceed, we shall certainly react positively and be prepared not to proceed with an all-postal referendum. However, we must obviously wait to see the evidence.

Mr. Edward Davey: The Minister has been very generous in giving way. I hope that the Government have no intention of hiding behind the statement made by the Electoral Commission. I hope that he will recognise that its report is advisory, as the Government have reminded the House on many other occasions, and that the decision about whether to go ahead with a referendum lies with Ministers and not with the Electoral Commission.

Mr. Raynsford: I entirely accept that; we have always accepted that. However, we take the advice of the Electoral Commission seriously and we have, on occasions, disagreed with it. When we do so, that is not because we simply state arrogantly that we do not care a fig for its views. We set out objective and fair reasons why we take a different view. There have been few such occasions. Overwhelmingly, we have gone along with the recommendations of the Electoral Commission, and we intend to give proper and serious consideration to whatever it says.

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