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Mr. Damian Green (Ashford) (Con): The Minister will be aware that, behind some of the knockabout in which he has been indulging, the serious issue is whether he is going to set up a referendum that will have the shadow of fraud over it, which would mean that the cloud of fraud would hang over all elections conducted in this way. I am sure that he would want to avoid that. If the only difference between the pilots and the referendum is to be the removal of the witness statements, perhaps because of a bureaucratic problem, that would mean that the amount of checks against fraud would be reduced. The shadow of fraud would therefore be greater in the referendum than it was in the pilots. Does the Minister acknowledge that it is not enough simply to talk about turnout? People need to be confident that it is not only the number of votes that has increased, but the number of voters as well, and that the increased turnout is not due to fraud. The Minister is reducing the protection against fraud under this new system.
 
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Mr. Raynsford: The Electoral Commission quite clearly says in its statement:

"There is presently no evidence on which to conclude that an all-postal referendum in the north-east would be unsafe in terms of fraud or malpractice."

That is the considered view of the commission, and the hon. Gentleman should pay attention to that. He is incorrect to say that the only change between the June pilot and the November referendum will be the removal of the witness statement. The other very significant change, to which the commission referred in its report, is the availability of far more extensive advice and delivery points, at which people will be able to vote in person, in privacy, if they wish to do so. That is a further significant change, in response to the genuine concerns voiced by people who want the opportunity to vote in person. We are therefore proceeding on the basis of the informed view of the Electoral Commission, and of the evidence that the north-east has consistently been able to achieve higher levels of participation and turnout as a result of all-postal voting without any evidence of a serious problem of fraud or malpractice.

Mr. Peter Pike (Burnley) (Lab): Many people in the north-west will, like the Government, very much regret the fact that this issue has been deferred in our region. They will, however, understand the announcement that   my right hon. Friend has made today. They support the Government's wish to give more democratic accountability on regional strategic and financial issues, and they want to see that done as soon as possible. They also believe that unitary authorities, to which the Labour Government are committed, provide better local government. I hope that, as soon as the foundation voting system is established, we can go ahead with the referendum in the north-west as soon as possible. I still hope to see that happen before I retire at the next general election, which need not be until 2006.

Mr. Raynsford: I note and entirely support my hon. Friend's concern to see that the people of the north-west are given the opportunity to vote on an elected regional assembly in a referendum at the earliest opportunity. He will understand that, given the various other factors that might come into play next year, I cannot give him an absolute assurance of the kind that he seeks. I have said, however, that we will give serious consideration to the Electoral Commission's proposed foundation model as soon as we see it, and we shall be working with the commission as it develops it. I hope to be able to make a statement—at the very least—on our decision in relation to the north-west and to Yorkshire and the Humber while my hon. Friend is still a Member of the House.

Mr. Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove) (LD): Does the Minister agree that a strong, independently elected regional assembly for the north-west would be a strong bulwark against arbitrary central Government decisions such as the cancellation of funding for the Metrolink tram in Greater Manchester, and his own Department's decision to refuse the Ikea application in Stockport? Will he therefore give the House a strong assurance that the fastest possible progress will be made on implementing this very important proposal?
 
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Mr. Raynsford: We share the hon. Gentleman's view that there should be greater devolution to the regions, and we believe that decisions should be taken on matters affecting regional economic development and regional planning at regional level wherever possible.

That is right and proper. I do not accept his view on Metrolink, on which the issue is under consideration, but I share his view entirely on the benefits of devolution. Our commitment is to allow people in the English regions the opportunity to have effective, elected regional assemblies, which are able to take decisions on matters that affect their region and to improve the economic performance and quality of life of their people.

Mr. Andrew Mackay (Bracknell) (Con): Now that even the Minister appears to have followed the Electoral Commission in realising that all-postal votes are wrong, and he is talking about the electorate rightly having a choice as to how they vote in future, can we assume that the referendum in the north-east will be the very last all-postal ballot?

Mr. Raynsford: Before the right hon. Gentleman tries to rewrite history, let me remind him that a year ago, the Electoral Commission reported on the 2003 pilots, and recommended that all-postal voting should become the norm in local government elections. That was not the Government's recommendation but the Electoral Commission's. We did not accept that recommendation; we believed that it was right to continue with pilots. We have done so, and we have learned a great deal from further pilots. We believe that that has helped to inform progress towards what has always been our objective: multi-channel elections, which allow people the opportunity and choice to vote by means that they find most convenient. We have not reached a final decision on the Electoral Commission's report and recommendations, but I have indicated clearly our sympathy and support for the concept of the multi-channel foundation model that it is working up, which is entirely consistent with our approach, which we have enunciated for several years.

Mr. Graham Brady (Altrincham and Sale, West) (Con): The Government accept that support for regional government in the north-west and in Yorkshire and the Humber is less than in the north-east. If the north-east votes no, or if the turnout is derisory, will the Minister undertake not to proceed with costly and time-wasting referendums in those regions? Will he also give an answer to the question from my hon. Friend the Member for Mole Valley (Sir Paul Beresford), and give a percentage for what he thinks is an acceptable majority and a derisory turnout?

Mr. Raynsford: It is a slightly odd argument that people in the hon. Gentleman's region and in Yorkshire
 
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and the Humber should not be allowed an opportunity to express their view, which may differ from the view expressed in the north-east. The whole basis of the Government's policy is choice: each region will be given a choice. It would be wrong to cancel arbitrarily that opportunity simply because another region had voted in a particular way. That is not democracy or common sense.

On the issue of thresholds, the hon. Gentleman will know the perverse consequences that come when an arbitrary threshold is set, and when a referendum or other election is not valid unless a particular turnout is achieved. That crippled the move towards devolution in Scotland in the late 1970s—an arbitrary 40 per cent. threshold was set even though the people of Scotland voted in favour of devolution. Because that threshold was not met, they could not proceed, and were deeply unhappy about that decision for 20 years. His party's annihilation from the Scottish electoral scene is in no small measure due to its failure to understand the anger of the Scots about the failure of this Parliament to allow them the opportunity for devolution.

Apart from that, the other issue is the perverse incentive that if a threshold is set, those who believe that they cannot beat their opponents and win the argument by voting can try to do so simply by not voting. That should not be welcome in a democracy. We want to encourage turnout, that is what we are doing, and that is why we are pursuing measures designed to increase participation in both local government elections and referendums.

Mr. Patrick McLoughlin (West Derbyshire) (Con): The Minister's Department, I believe, is signed up to the Plain English Campaign. Can he tell us what is meant by

"a basis for future multi-channel elections to develop a new foundation model of voting"?

Mr. Raynsford: The hon. Gentleman has, I hope, been listening to the debate, and will know that the Electoral Commission has set out its proposals for a new model that would include provision for people to vote by post, in person and electronically. That is multi-channel. I have referred to that several times, and most people who have followed the debate understand it.

I entirely accept that the language used by the commission in the passage quoted by the hon. Gentleman is not necessarily the kind of language in which he would talk to his constituents in the Dog and Duck, but I assure him that our objective is increasing participation and giving people choice, so that they can vote by a means that is practical and convenient to them. That will give us the best chance of increasing turnout, and ensuring that the sad decline in electoral participation that poses a real threat to the health of our democracy is reversed.
 
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