Examination of Witnesses (Questions 180
- 199)
WEDNESDAY 20 OCTOBER 2004
AIR CHIEF
MARSHAL SIR
JOCK STIRRUP
KCB AFC ADC
Q180 Chairman: But how can the B52
be 100 years old and still used?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
The B52 might well be 100 years old and used for certain tasks.
The question one has to ask oneself is: how much does it cost
to run it and what would be the cost of a replacement? Those are
the issues. Clearly if we thought that it would be cheaper and
operationally as effective to continue running the VC10 rather
than replacing it, then that is what we would do. Equally, the
United States Air Force may be looking to run the B52 for a very
long time, but it is as anxious as we are to replace its ageing
and very expensive tanker fleet.
Q181 Mr Cran: But we would not get
to a point, would we, where we would have to rely, or might we
have to rely, on the capability of perhaps our American allies?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
We would certainly not intend to do that.
Q182 Mr Cran: If we could.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Anything is possible, but that is certainly not the plan.
Mr Cran: Okay, we will watch this space!
Chairman: Maybe the French will help
us out!
Q183 Mr Roy: Sir Jock, I am back
to the cliff edge. I am losing the ability to live trying to get
an answer, but if you give me an answer, we will all stand up
at the one time and cheer. Could I take you to the Nimrod reconnaissance
aircraft, not the base closure and such like because you have
explained that in your own way, but in a statement on the Future
Capabilities White Paper, the Secretary of State said that
the UK's maritime reconnaissance needs could be met with 16 Nimrod
MR2 aircraft, which is down from 21, and that the requirement
could in future be met by a fleet of around 12 more capable Nimrod
MRA4 aircraft. Nimrod has demonstrated its ability over land,
for example, in Iraq and Afghanistan which would then beg the
question that it is not just for anti-submarine work where a lot
of people would accept that the threat is no longer there in the
way it used to be. Is there, therefore, not the case for retaining
the five Nimrod MR2 aircraft which are to be decommissioned and
keep them for the land reconnaissance which it has just proved
it is capable of doing? Yes, no or maybe?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Obviously there is a case for it, but, like all things, it is
a matter of the opportunity costs. If one were to do that, it
would cost a certain amount of money and that money would have
to be taken from other programmes which, on balance, we judge
to be of a higher priority, so again it is striking the balance
between overall numbers and total effect. What I would say is
that the Nimrod MR2 has proved itself in operational theatres
over land as well as over sea. It has shown that its capability
in both arenas is substantially greater than it has been in recent
years, so again there is the case to be made that given its improved
effectiveness, you can do more than you could before even with
fewer platforms and that was the judgment that was made.
Q184 Mr Roy: Are there any future
plans to procure additional Nimrod MRA4 for a land reconnaissance
role in addition to the 12 for the maritime?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
The number that we settled on as part of the Defence Review took
into account its flexibility in overland roles. It is more a question
of doing either/or than of doing them both. We simply do not have
the resource to be able to procure sufficient numbers to be able
to do all of these roles in different areas at the same time,
so a judgment has to be made over whether you will need to do
that or whether the flexibility to do one or the other is the
most cost-effective route and it was the latter that we judged
to be the best outcome.
Q185 Mr Roy: But not to do both?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
At the same time.
Q186 Mike Gapes: Can I ask you about
the airlift capability. The RAF's vital, essential role on expeditionary
operations is very much dependent upon its strategic and tactical
airlift capability. Can you update us on the current position
with regard to the A400M and the likely in-service date and any
other information about the programme?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
As far as the in-service date is concerned, that still stands
at the beginning of the next decade essentially, in about another
seven years or so.
Q187 Mike Gapes: So 2011?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Yes, 2011, there or thereabouts is when we expect to se the first
aircraft come in.
Q188 Mike Gapes: Sorry, does that
mean 2011 or 2012?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Well, again it means at the moment that 2011 is what we are aiming
for, but this is a programme that is still in development and
whilst we have great confidence in Airbus's ability to build a
strategic transport aircraft in the civil sense, there are a number
of other aspects of this aircraft which are not straightforward
and which are not normal in a civilian aircraft, so there is some
technical risk involved in developing those and we have not yet
got to the stage where that risk has been reduced to the point
where I would feel completely confident about when I can expect
to start operating these aircraft.
Q189 Mike Gapes: Is that slippage
mainly caused by the delays in Germany?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I am not saying there will be any slippage. What I am saying is
I am trying to answer your questions from the perspective of a
military commander. The Department has targets, goals for bringing
equipment into service and I would very much like it if the Department
met all of those, but we all know that that is not the case and
in some areas we understand why, because of the technical challenge
involved in the programmes, so I have to consider a range of possibilities.
I have to ensure that we have the appropriate capability, no matter
what variation there may be in specific programmes, so I am aiming
at 2011 to start operating these aircraft. However, we have the
capability with the four C-17s, which we have been leasing up
to now and which we will buy out, and the additional C-17 procurement,
which has been announced, to ensure that we maintain sufficient
lift capability throughout the transition from the C130K fleet
to the A400M.
Q190 Mike Gapes: Can I ask you about
the C-17s. They are currently leased and there are four of them
and the United States is apparently enhancing its C-17 fleet as
a result of experience in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Will we also be seeking to upgrade our leased C-17s with enhancements?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
We will be looking at that as an option, but it would have to
be considered alongside everything else in the planning round.
Q191 Mike Gapes: Will the additional
C-17s have enhancements?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I cannot answer that. We can let you have the information. I do
not know off the top of my head.
Q192 Mr Viggers: Two years ago you
appeared before this Committee and identified two areas where
key strategic decisions needed to be made quite soon. One of these
was proper network-centric capability. How much progress have
you made and do you think the key decisions have been taken as
required?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I think we are making very good progress and I think a number
of important decisions have been made, but, as you will perhaps
have heard me and others say before, network-enabled capability
is not a specific box of tricks one can go out and buy and incorporate.
It is an approach to operations, it is an evolutionary approach
and it involves not just technology, but also doctrine and processes.
However, that said, we have done a lot of things. We have seen
embryonic network-enabled capability working on recent operations.
Indeed I would say that, as an air force, we have been involved
in network-enabled capability for a very long time. I would point
to the Dowling system in the Battle of Britain as an interesting
early example of network-enabled capability, albeit steam-driven
and manpower-intensive. We have had the Joint Tactical Information
Distribution System, JTIDS, in the Tornado F3 force for a long
time and in other aircraft, using Link 16, and this provides us
with embryonic network-enabled capability, and we have systems
that we have incorporated into the Jaguar and the Harrier, so
we have got quite a lot of connectivity building up already. One
of our key problems is that because of the way these have grown
up, they are not all compatible one with another, so we have a
programme of tactical information exchange capability which will
rationalise all of that and provide us with the right degree of
digital connectivity across our fast jet fleet which will enable
us to move that information from sensors to decision-maker to
weapon system very rapidly and enable us to respond to fleeting
opportunities and enable us to execute time-sensitive targets.
We have also made significant progress in terms of the ground
segment of our network-enabled capability in terms of linking
operational headquarters, in terms of linking them back with the
United Kingdom and in terms of linking them with forward bases.
So our network-enabled capability is growing all the time and
we have a number of significant programmes in the future which
will enable us to continue that, so I am pleased with the progress.
Q193 Mr Viggers: In the Future
Capabilities document, there is a fictional illustrative scenario
showing the benefits of NEC and showing an operation in 2010 and
it envisages a sensor-to-shooter time of half an hour. Firstly,
do you think that is achievable and, secondly, do you think it
is fast enough?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Yes and no. It is achievable, but challenging and no, it is not
fast enough and that cannot be the end of the journey. I want
to see us get it down to a small number of minutes.
Q194 Mr Viggers: Are you satisfied
that enough resources are devoted to this area?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Yes. It is a question of balance again. Network-enabled capability
involves not just the connections, but all the other elements
of your force structure. You must have the sensors, you must have
the headquarters and the decision-makers, you must have the weapon
systems, you must have the precise effects, so network-enabled
capability must be viewed as the totality of your military force
rather than just the bit that connects the nodes, as it were,
and we have shifted substantial resources over the last five years
or so into those areas of connectivity.
Q195 Mr Viggers: This Committee has
visited Norfolk, Virginia and we have also had contact with our
European allies and friends. A couple of weeks ago, wearing a
different hat, I was giving German defence people a rather hard
time about the manner in which they devoted their resources. Will
we be able to stay up with the Americans without losing contact
with the European allies? Where does the shoe pinch? Do you think
we will have more difficulty keeping up with the Americans or
more difficulty staying with the allies?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I think the real challenge is knowing where to aim. Keeping up
with the Americans presupposes that the Americans know where they
are going and we just follow on a little bit behind. Actually
that is not good enough and we need to be there at the same time
as they do, so we have to try to predict where they are going
to wind up so that we are in a position at that moment in time
to be interoperable, but there is so much here that is new in
terms of technological opportunity, in terms of the implications
for doctrine, process and procedures that we are trying to track
a moving target, a very rapidly moving target. That is the great
challenge. I think we are doing it well. We are keeping in very
close contact with evolving thinking as well as with specific
programmes, so that is helping us to aim off into the right area
for the future. In terms of keeping aligned with other allies,
then I think we are doing quite well there too. I think the problem
is one not so much of understanding, but one of determination
and allocation of resources and if a particular nation or a particular
service decides not to make the necessary resources available
for this purpose, then it will not be interoperable to the degree
that we seek to be interoperable. That does not mean that we will
not be able to operate together. What it does mean is that those
nations that have not made the necessary investment will be constrained
in what they are able to do.
Q196 Mike Gapes: I have some questions
about personnel. You have given evidence to us before in our White
Paper inquiry about personnel matters and at that time you referred
to the need to reshape ourselves in accordance with the changing
strategic environment and technological opportunities, but we
also have to reshape ourselves in the light of the decisions in
the Future Capabilities document to cut your personnel
numbers more significantly than either of the other two services.
In fact there is a 15 per cent cut, or 7,500 by April 2008 for
the RAF compared to a cut of only about 1,500 for the Army and
a similar number for the Royal Navy. Do you as a result of this
and the problems of recruitment and retention that apply generally
have any particular specialisms or trades currently in which you
have particular problems?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
There are two halves to that question. The first one concerns
the reduction in numbers of people. It is not, I think, fair to
say that the reduction in numbers of people is driven by the White
Paper and the announcement in the summer. It is fair, I think,
to say that that announcement reflected the plans that we had
already laid down. For example, one of my strategic priorities
in taking up this post was to reduce the cost of logistic support
to expeditionary air operations. Clearly one of the key ways of
reducing the cost of that support is in reducing the number of
people it takes. At the same time the Ministry of Defence was
instituting what has now become the Defence Logistics Transformation
Programme looking at the various studies such as the End-to-End
study that have taken place over recent years, which are all about
providing our logistics support outputs more efficiently. Since
that was our aim, it would be very unfortunate if we were not
to have plans to reduce the numbers of our people. Equally, we
have been pursuing the Joint Personnel Administration System which
is about providing our people with the administrative support
they need and deserve in the 21st Century but more efficiently
using fewer people. Equally, we are looking at co-locating our
command headquarters so that we provide the command and control
functions that we do now but with fewer overheads through using
common resources. That too reduces our requirement for people.
If we reduce the number of bases that we operate, for reasons
I outlined earlier, then that is going to reduce to some extent
our requirement for people, so all of these initiatives, which
were in place before the July announcement and the work that predated
it are about driving down our requirement for people. I would
say that with regard to the Navy to some extent they were ahead
of us in their logistic support arrangements. They have already
put in place a warship logistics supply chain that incorporates
a number of these efficiencies so to an extent the Navy have already
reduced their personnel using the same processes that we are using.
That said, we still have areas of pinch. We still do not have
enough motor transport drivers and technicians, we are still short
of medical personnel in general, and we have one or two other
specialist areas in which we are undermanned. Just because we
are reducing our total number does not mean to say that we will
not continue to seek to recruit to full manning those areas where
we are short.
Q197 Mike Gapes: What are you doing
to recruit and to fill those gaps?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Specific initiatives for each and every area depending upon what
the problems are. I would point to the success that we have been
having. One of the areas that I have not mentioned is engineering
officers. Another area I have not mentioned is our air regiment
gunners. Both of those were pinch points 24 or 36 months ago but
because of the specific actions we have taken, different in each
case, we have been able to bring up our recruiting and increase
our manning. So we do the same in every area but it is a different
approach in each area depending on what the problem is.
Q198 Mike Gapes: Overall how far
are you from full manning levels?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
We are very close to full manning levels. We are as close frankly
as makes no difference but that is globally. There are areas where
the shortfall is significant.
Q199 Chairman: We visited Deepcut
yesterday and some establishments nearby and we saw at first hand
the growing reliance upon Army personnel from the Commonwealth.
We saw West Africans, Afro-Caribbeans from Jamaica, we saw Nepalese
from Hong Kong Fijians. What kind of reliance have you placed
in order to meet your requirements, Sir Jock, on the new Commonwealth
or old Commonwealth?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
We have not placed any reliance on it but, equally, we would not
pass up an opportunity. For example, when the Royal New Zealand
Air Force decided to dispense with its combat wing that threw
up some fast jet pilots at a time when we were in need of them
and we were able, through co-operation with our colleagues in
New Zealand, to recruit a number of those and to bring them over
here and they are now giving us sterling service.
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