Select Committee on Defence Fifth Report


2 Background to the Defence White Paper 2003

4. The Defence White Paper places itself very much in the context of the original work of the 1998 Strategic Defence Review[2] (SDR) and the subsequent New Chapter to the SDR.[3] In many ways it builds on themes raised in the New Chapter at the grand strategic level, but in policy terms it contains very little in the way of detail. Implications for equipment programmes, the future structure and size of the Armed Forces and personnel issues remain largely unexplored. With this in mind we have decided to focus on the assumptions underlying the Defence White Paper, the implications for personnel in the three services and the implications for future force structures, equipment and expenditure.

Strategic Defence Review to New Chapter

5. The SDR was published in fulfilment of a Labour Party manifesto commitment to conduct a defence review to reassess Britain's security interests to meet the "new strategic realities". Central to these realities was the assessment that "there is today no direct military threat to the United Kingdom or Western Europe". Instead there were a range of instabilities, both in Europe (e.g. the Balkans) and further afield. However, the SDR also identified a range of new risks "which threaten our security by attacking our way of life". These included "new and horrifying forms of terrorism [which] can cause…dangerous instabilities".[4] The paper which emerged after a year of work in July 1998 was intended to address the UK's defence requirements for the period up to 2015.

6. The SDR was praised for its considered approach to reviewing British defence policy. A central plank of it was the need to retain a war-fighting capability (for the Army this meant divisional-level operations in a joint/combined framework). It also introduced the concept of expeditionary operations into policy planning more explicitly than before. Its goal was to give the armed services a coherent and stable planning basis in the context of a radically changed strategic context following the end of the Cold War.

7. Most importantly, the SDR led to a shift in thinking away from commitment-based planning and towards planning based on capabilities, with the emphasis on expeditionary operations. By defining the type of capabilities that the UK's Armed Forces should be able to sustain, the SDR hoped to provide a basis for prudent force planning and avoid excessive overstretch. To this end, the SDR stated explicitly the number and scale of missions that the Armed Forces could be expected to be able to conduct concurrently and sustain. These were that at any one time they could either deploy and sustain one "large" division-sized force, similar to that sent to the 1991 Gulf War, or two "medium" brigade-sized forces, one equipped for war-fighting and the other for peace-support operations. However, these concurrency capacity objectives have been exceeded on a number of occasions since the publication of the SDR, for example, during the Kosovo crisis in 1999.

The SDR New Chapter

8. The New Chapter to the Strategic Defence Review of July 2002, sought to reflect the changes that had occurred following the terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001. The New Chapter's starting point was that the original SDR had not fully contemplated the scale of asymmetric threats that emerged on 11 September 2001 and so re-examination of the UK's defence posture and plans was required. Its focus—according to the Secretary of State—was on "the way we want to use our forces against a determined, mobile, often disparate, and elusive enemy".[5] The MoD maintained that the original SDR provided a firm foundation on which to build. Thus, one purpose of the work on the New Chapter was to check the conclusions of the SDR against lessons learnt not only from the events of 11 September but also from campaigns such as Kosovo and, as it turned out, Afghanistan. It was also designed to contribute to the wider effort across government to develop a strategy to eliminate terrorism as "a force for change in international affairs".[6]

9. The New Chapter concluded that it was better to engage the enemy, where possible, at longer range (i.e. away from the UK itself) and therefore that the UK needed to have significant forces ready to deploy overseas to act against terrorist groups and regimes that harboured them. Military force could be used to "prevent, deter, coerce, disrupt or destroy" opponents.[7] To achieve these objectives, UK forces should aim for "knowledge superiority" over international terrorists. Particular UK strengths were identified both in find-and-strike operations and in prevention and stabilisation operations. The former were identified as requiring high-intensity war fighting capacity and decision-making structures to enable forces to act rapidly and decisively. In stabilisation operations, the UK had capabilities and experience that enabled it to take a leading role in the early, more demanding stages of operations, such as the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and Operation Essential Harvest in Macedonia.

10. The New Chapter argued that the trend towards expeditionary operations would become even more pronounced. Furthermore such operations might not be limited to the core geographical regions identified by the original SDR (i.e. Europe, the Gulf and the Mediterranean). UK forces would need to be ready to engage "further afield more often than perhaps we had previously assumed".[8]

11. It also reaffirmed the SDR's conclusion that in most cases the UK's Armed Forces would be working alongside allies, often with the US in the lead. It noted, however, that local infrastructure (otherwise known as Host Nation Support) might not always be available. Thus operations might become more frequent, often with smaller, but possibly simultaneous deployments placing an increasing strain on "enabling assets" such as deployable headquarters, communications and logistic support. This has been called the challenge of concurrency.

12. The analysis in the New Chapter also highlighted the importance of what it called "network centric capability" (NCC)—that is precision weapons and information technologies linked together to produce military effect at a qualitatively higher tempo, and often using smaller force structures than in the past. According to the New Chapter, the three critical elements required to deliver this military effect are sensors, a network, and strike assets. Exploited to the full these elements could provide a "common understanding among commanders at all levels" which in turn had the potential to offer: greater precision in the control of operations, greater precision in the application of force, greater rapidity of effect, and better force protection.[9]

13. This capability was identified as being particularly important in operations to counter terrorism overseas. But its implementation would depend on the effectiveness of a number of advanced technologies. In this regard the New Chapter stated "we will accelerate and want to increase our investment in network-centric capabilities" and identified areas in which investment had already begun, including airborne surveillance, communication systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and precision munitions. In the future, the New Chapter argued, it would be "military effect", not simply platform numbers and people, which would be critical.[10]

14. The New Chapter also acknowledged that Britain's service men and women had been "working at or near, and in some cases beyond, the boundaries of what was planned in the SDR for some considerable time now". It emphasised that they should not now simply be asked to do even more. Admitting that fully manned and sustainable force structures were proving elusive, the New Chapter identified individuals in certain of the most heavily used specialisms as critical for the success of its approach. It noted that increasing use of civilians and contractors in operational deployments was to be expected.

15. Co-operation with allies was also highlighted with the emphasis on working through international organisations such as the United Nations, NATO and the European Union. Particular mention was made of NATO's work to improve its capacity to deal with weapons of mass destruction, enhance home defence and cooperate with other agencies and organisations.

16. In the course of our inquiry into the New Chapter we were told of the importance to UK military thinking of the manoeuvrist approach:

The manoeuvrist approach is really at the heart of the UK approach to warfare or of the use of military force, which is to try and get inside the opponent's decision-making cycle. It is the attempt to have your ability to think through something and act before the opponent has the chance to do his thinking and acting as well. Our network-enabled capability undoubtedly offers the prospect of being able to do that more quickly.[11]

British Defence Doctrine refers to this as the "OODA Loop", formulated by an American officer to explain how information can transform operations by speeding up the loop of Observing, Orientating, Deciding and Acting. We noted that the New Chapter's approach encapsulated in the phrase "detect, decide, destroy" appeared rather similar to the OODA loop approach and therefore rather "old" conceptually. Its relevance remains significant, but we doubted how far the New Chapter represented "new" thinking.[12]

17. It was in the New Chapter work that the MoD introduced "effects-based planning" as a fundamental principle of modern military operations, as the Secretary of State emphasised:

We must therefore move away from always assessing defence capability in terms of platforms or unit numbers. It is now more useful to think in terms of the effects that can be delivered—we must consider what effect we want to have on an opponent and at what time…There are traditional so-called "kinetic effects" [or] other effects designed to influence the will of an adversary…Effects-based planning has always been understood intuitively by good commanders.[13]

18. We concluded in our report that the world had not stood still in the three years between publication of the original SDR and the al Qaeda attacks in New York and Washington on 11 September 2001. While the MoD emphasised that it was not embarking on a review of the SDR as a whole, we argued that by trying to avoid the broader picture, the New Chapter in fact "served to draw attention to the many areas where developments since 1998 are making the SDR look increasingly out of date".[14]

Afghanistan and Iraq

19. The preparation of the 2003 Defence White Paper was undertaken in the context of two major expeditionary operations—Afghanistan and Iraq—both of which provided important lessons for the armed services. Kosovo for example had revealed the Royal Air Force's (RAF) weakness in all-weather precision bombing from altitude. US operations in Afghanistan then demonstrated the need to re-learn the skills of close air support and its modern iteration of "kill-box interdiction", which we discuss in Chapter Six below. In this sense Afghanistan proved a turning point for the RAF in its evolution from a Cold War air force to an expeditionary force capable of supporting ground operations. These trends were confirmed by the experience of Operation Telic, the British contribution to the Iraq campaign.

20. In Iraq, it is arguable that in some ways "military effect" was not as well linked to the campaign's broader objectives as it could have been. The Government admitted in its response to our Lessons of Iraq report that the extent to which the Iraqi police and armed forces "effectively dissolved themselves" was greater than the coalition had expected.[15] Operation Telic demonstrated that western armed forces, embracing new military technologies, had become highly effective at engaging with, and rendering traditional opponents ineffective as formed units. But the very success of these forces at this level of conflict may have created military and non-military effects not entirely suited to broader strategic effects. The melting away of the Iraq military in this context might serve as an illustration of the potential limits to the effects which the Armed Forces (as currently structured and trained) can be expected to achieve.

21. Instead of a defeated military surrendering its forces and crucially its weapons and equipment to a successful opponent, the experience of operations in Iraq has been of a country awash with weapons and militarily trained personnel with little or no involvement in a process of de-militarisation, in which political and military structures have disintegrated. This has made subsequent operations more difficult and protracted than appears to have been planned for. As the post-conflict stage in Iraq has shown, a great deal more is required to achieve the objectives of an effects-based operation, than advanced military technologies in the hands of numerically small forces.

The United Nations

22. The White Paper makes only limited reference to the United Nations in its two volumes. The Secretary of State indicated to us that he did not see a role for the UN in the "delivery… of military effect", although the UN could provide "political supervision".[16] The United Nations Association of Great Britain and Northern Ireland noted that there has been a diminution of the number of personnel offered by NATO states to the UN and expressed concern that there was no reference to the UK supporting peacekeeping missions of the UN through the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations in the White Paper. They further expressed concern about the UK's close association with the US policy of pre-emptive action.[17]

23. Very little has been said about the role of the United Nations in current UK defence thinking. The SDR did not deal explicitly with the UN and the legal context for the expeditionary operations it emphasised. The New Chapter made explicit reference to the United Nations and its evolving role in international security, but did not offer any view of UK thinking about it, beyond the observation that it was one of the "central organisations" that provided "a framework of international relationships and organisations, and international law" within which the Armed Forces must operate.[18] No mention was made of possible changes to the Charter of the United Nations or the membership and role of the Security Council, or its Military Staff Committee. The MoD's paper on The Future Strategic Context for Defence of February 2001 explicitly considered legal dimensions of policy, but here the emphasis was entirely on those elements of international law which protected individual human rights and which promoted the likely role of the International Criminal Court.[19]

24. In our New Chapter report we drew particular attention to the more formal legal implications of evolving UK defence policy by questioning the assumptions the Government had adopted in its statements on the international legality of pre-emption—pointing out that this would always be legally contentious if the UK followed current US postures on pre-emption. We noted the inherent difficulty of addressing terrorism in the absence of truly applicable "laws of war", and the likely need for much more detailed interpretations of existing international law in specific cases. The report also raised a concern over the implications of network centric capabilities for the interpretation and operation of rules of engagement, pointing out that senior officers regarded such capabilities as setting sharper challenges for the legal framework within which the Armed Forces operate.[20]

25. The Armed Forces must always act within a framework of legality. The United Nations is clearly a major element in any interpretation of the international legal framework. The crisis leading up to the war in Iraq, and the politics of the reconstruction process since, have re-emphasised the sensitive nature of debates in the UN and their potential effect on the legal framework within which UK defence policy operates. The UK has repeatedly proved itself to be loyal and crucial member of the UN, though the Iraq war temporarily set it at odds with many of its alliance partners within the organisation. We recommend that the MoD should explain more fully how UK forces have supported the United Nations; how the UK expects to continue to do so; and how defence planners see the UK's military role within the UN system in relation to its roles within NATO and the European Union.

The FCO's Strategy Paper

26. The original SDR was trumpeted as having been foreign policy led, but was criticised by some observers when the foreign policy conclusions upon which it was based were not published. Commentators have long argued that in the evolving security environment of the post-cold war world, the UK was in need not of another statement of defence policy, or foreign policy, but rather a broadly defined national security policy.

27. MoD emphasised to us that the Defence White Paper had been drawn up in close co-operation and consultation with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and pointed to the fact that shortly before the Defence White Paper was published, FCO published its own strategy document, UK International Priorities: A Strategy for the FCO. In that document, the FCO identifies 8 strategic priorities for the UK:

i.  a world safer from global terrorism and weapons of mass destruction;

ii.  protection of the UK from illegal immigration, drug trafficking and other international crime;

iii.  an international system based on the rule of law, which is better able to resolve disputes and prevent conflicts;

iv.  an effective EU in a secure neighbourhood;

v.  promotion of UK economic interests in an open and expanding global economy;

vi.  sustainable development, underpinned by democracy, good governance and human rights;

vii.  security of UK and global energy supplies; and,

viii.  security and good governance of the UK's Overseas Territories.[21]

28. The MoD is identified as one of the principal partners across government in all but the fifth of these priorities. According to the FCO the focus of the UK's security and defence policy will be on countering the "new threats, often from non-state actors empowered by new technologies, and originating outside Europe".[22] The FCO says that these threats need to be tackled "assertively". Insecurity in Africa and elsewhere is to lead to efforts to "reach a clearer consensus on principles justifying the use of force for humanitarian purposes, conflict stabilisation and timely action against terrorism or threatening WMD capabilities". Other issues challenging the UK and its partners will be ideology and religion, global economic inequalities, population movements, environmental change, demand for energy and the proliferation of technology which may have negative as well as positive effects. The role of UK Armed Forces will "continue to shift towards deployments in crisis areas around the world. Our ability to project force will be a key instrument of our foreign policy".[23] The Defence White Paper for its part focuses its analysis on international terrorism, WMD proliferation, failing states, social and environmental factors and regional instability.[24]

29. The Conflict Prevention Pools (CPP) initiative is one example of attempts to develop joined up policy for a broader conception of external security relations by MoD and other government departments. Both Conflict Prevention Pools—a 'Global Pool' and an 'Africa Pool'—were established in the Spending Review of 2000. The overarching intention was that since peace, stability and poverty reduction "are global concerns and key objectives for the British government…eliminating violent conflict is an essential precursor to achieving any of these objectives".[25] Based upon this vision, ministers agreed that the FCO, the MoD and the Department for International Development (DFID), in association with the Cabinet Office and the Treasury, would work closely to improve the UK's contribution to peacekeeping, conflict prevention and conflict management. The three main departments would pool funds that they were spending on various conflict prevention activities, and the subsequent pools were to receive additional central funds to serve as an incentive to promote new substantive initiatives. This form of "joined up" government was not predominantly about financial management, but instead designed:

to improve the effectiveness of the UK contribution to conflict prevention and management as demonstrated by a reduction in the number of people whose lives are affected by violent conflict and a reduction in potential sources of future conflict, where the UK can make a significant contribution.[26]

30. This was not the first initiative by the Government to promote "joined-up" policies and programmes, but it was the first to be applied to a concept—conflict prevention—that sought to promote policy and programme coherence and coordination in its activities overseas. There is no equivalent that we are aware of by other governments. After three years in operation the Conflict Prevention Pools have demonstrated some benefits from pursuing an imaginative and joined up initiative. However, each of the three main departments also have relevant spending programmes of their own that do not necessarily conform to a common definition of conflict prevention and are not susceptible to common forms of evaluation and monitoring.

31. Despite collaborating in the Conflict Prevention Pools, we have not seen substantial evidence of cross departmental co-ordination or effects-based thinking emerge from the two policy documents from the FCO and MoD. We discuss how true effects-based operations will increase the requirement for a pan-Whitehall approach in Chapter Six below. In the case of the FCO, this may require diplomats to engage more directly with concepts such as information operations in missions involving British forces, rather than seeing their role in narrow diplomatic terms. While the CPP initiative is a good model of inter-departmental cooperation and the harmonisation of priorities around one particular UK security theme, the limits of its impact on the ground—and in Whitehall—since 2000 demonstrate how far the UK still is from the broadly defined national security policy for which our predecessor Committee, and many commentators, have repeatedly called. While we note the co-operation between MoD and FCO at the policy level we believe that the future operational demands of effects-based thinking will require even greater collaboration.


2   MoD, The Strategic Defence Review, Cm 3999, (July 1998). Back

3   MoD, The Strategic Defence Review-A New Chapter Cm 5566,(July 2002), Vols 1 & 2. Back

4   Defence Committee, Sixth Report of Session 2002-03, A New Chapter to the Strategic Defence Review, HC 93-I, para 7. Back

5   A New Chapter to the Strategic Defence Review, HC 93-I (2002-03), para 18. Back

6   Ibid., para 19. Back

7   Ibid., para 20. Back

8   Ibid., para 23. Back

9   The Strategic Defence Review-A New Chapter, Vol I, para 35. Back

10   Ibid., p 15. Back

11   A New Chapter to the Strategic Defence Review, HC 93-I (2002-03), para 64. Back

12   A New Chapter to the Strategic Defence Review, HC 93-I (2002-03), para 66. Back

13   Ibid., para 88.  Back

14   Ibid., para 146. Back

15   Defence Committee, Lessons of Iraq: Government response to the Committee's Third Report of Session 2003-04, First Special Report of Session 2003-04, HC 635, para 184. Back

16   Q 193 Back

17   Ev 77-78 Back

18   Ministry of Defence, The Strategic Defence Review: A New Chapter-Public Discussion Paper, (February 2002), paras 39-40. Back

19   MoD, The Future Strategic Context for Defence, (February 2001), paras 48-52. Back

20   HC 93-I (2002-03), paras 139-141. Back

21   Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK International Priorities: A Strategy for the FCO Cm 6052, (December 2003), p 30. Back

22   UK International Priorities: A Strategy for the FCO, p 13. Back

23   Ibid., p 14. Back

24   DWP 1, pp 4-5. Back

25   Cabinet Office, History of Conflict Prevention. Back

26   HMG Spending Review, 2000, (July 2000), www.hm-treasury.gov.uk. Back


 
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