Age profile of the profession
141. Despite the influx of new teachers through ITT,
50% of teachers are over 45. That could spell problems for schools
over the next ten to fifteen years. Stephen Kershaw, Director
of Finance at the DfES and formerly head of the School Workforce
division, explained how recruitment was tailored to prevailing
trends:
"[W]e have rather a sophisticated teacher supply
model which works both with our analytical services focusing on
the department and the policy code and in the Teacher Training
Agency which does indeed plan in some of the judgments about falling
teacher numbers as a result of falling rolls in primary and has
done for some years, and that is why the Teacher Training Agency
has long-term secondary recruitment targets
The second point,
of course, is to count the demographics of the population, the
teacher population, as well. So over time, as we know, a significant
number of teachers are approaching retirement age and that, of
course, is taken into account in the model as well. So the falling
numbers you describe in primary, to some extent demographic changes
will take account of that. The third thing is that when one takes
the nature of training that we are talking about, of course we
are not going to ask the Teacher Training Agency to train people
for whom there will not be jobs. It is fair to say that over
the last few years all the pressure has been to recruit and train
more people generally rather than cut them off, but it is one
reason why, if you look at the figures, over the last two or three years
there has been a distinct shift from the four-year B-Ed, which
traditionally people have gone on from to primary school teaching,
into the PGCE, which traditionally has been the main route into
secondary teaching, and that has been a very deliberate shift
to take account of that."[137]
142. Recruitment is the easier part of the problem,
as it falls to the TTA to manage recruitment to ITT throughout
England. There is no similar control over the arrangements for
people leaving the profession and departures will take place according
to individual circumstances. The retirement age is being raised
to 65 with effect from 1 September 2006 for new teachers and from
1 September 2013 for existing staff. It is possible that this
will encourage those who would otherwise have retired at 60 after
2013 to bring forward retirement. This does not change the nature
of the problem, but it does suggest that the consequences for
the profession may be felt sooner rather than later.
143. One of the themes of this inquiry has been that
teaching should no longer be seen necessarily as a career for
life, and with more people joining at a later stage in life the
age profile can be expected to change. What is needed is a
good balance within the profession; those who have long-term careers
in teaching, those who teach and then move on to another career
and those who come to teaching as a second or third career.
144. The situation requires some strategic thinking.
The DfES, NEOST and the TTA need to develop a managed approach
to retirement to ensure that there is no sudden exodus of half
the profession, and that adequate numbers of new recruits are
brought in to the profession over the next decade. The projections
are that 12,000 fewer teachers will be needed in secondary education
in 2010 compared to 2004 because of falling rolls.[138]
This may help in the management of the problem, but demographics
alone cannot be relied upon to produce a satisfactory outcome.
We do not suggest that a balanced profession is an easy thing
to achieve, but it is a situation which needs to be managed, so
far as that is possible, rather than left entirely to chance.
The Government's five year plan
145. On 8 July the Government set out its plans for
schools for the next five years.[139]
We will aim to examine those plans, alongside our conclusions
from this long-term investigation into secondary education, in
our overview report later in the year. One thing is certain: the
success of the Government's policies for improving schools depends
on teachers. As part of its five year strategy, the Government
must develop a plan for the structure and strategic management
of the teaching profession which addresses the specific issues
we have identified; without sufficient appropriately qualified
and experienced teachers, all plans for improvements in school
provision will come to nothing.
119 Q 127 Back
120
City & Guilds Press Notice, The transient 21st
century workforce, 25 February 2004. Back
121
Q 403 Back
122
Ev 234, Chart 8. Back
123
Q 243 Back
124
ibid Back
125
Q 164 Back
126
Q 97 Back
127
Qq 165, 166. Back
128
Q 116 Back
129
ibid Back
130
ibid Back
131
ibid Back
132
Ev 232, para 6. Back
133
Education and Skills Committee, Seventh Report of Session 2002-03,
Secondary Education: Pupil Achievement, para 97. Back
134
Ev 235, Chart 11. Back
135
Education and Skills Committee, Fifth Report , 2002-03, The
Future of Higher Education, HC 425-I, para136. Back
136
Ev 165 Back
137
Evidence taken by the Education and Skills Committee on Public
Expenditure, HC 687-I, 16 June 2004, Q 65. Back
138
Ev 230, para 17. Back
139
Department for Education and Skills, Five Year Strategy for
Children and Learners, Cm 6272, July 2004. Back