Memorandum submitted by Professor Alan
Smithers, Specialist Adviser to the Committee
INTRODUCTION
1. Balancing teacher provision is not easy.
A recent study by the Information Network on Education in Europe1
found that of 31 European countries and regions only four—Finland,
Spain, Northern Ireland and Scotland—reported that supply
matched demand. Of the others, 13 (including England and Wales)
reported general shortages, eight shortages in some regions or
subjects, and six surpluses. Surpluses can be as much of a problem
as shortages because they waste resources and leave teachers unemployed.
Chart 1 illustrates the main factors that have to be taken into
account.
2. This paper begins with retention in secondary
schools since this is the subject of the Committees inquiry, but
it is set in the context of teacher provision generally.
RETENTION
3. Teacher retention has become the focus
of concern in many countries. The National Commission on Teaching
and America's Future2 underlined its analysis of the staffing
crisis in the United States by dubbing teaching, "the revolving
door profession". In this country retention came to the fore
when it was noticed that in the annual surveys of the Employers'
Organisation for Local Government3 resignations of full-time permanent
teachers from maintained schools (primary and secondary) in England
had risen from 25,000 in 1998 to 46,500 in 2001. The DfES commissioned
the Centre for Education and Employment Research at University
of Liverpool to investigate and report on what was happening.
Its findings for 20024 and 20035 are given in Chart 2 alongside
results of the Employers' Organisation's surveys for 1994 to 2001.
Acknowledging the difficulty of deriving trends from different
data sets it does not appear that the step rise in resignations
has continued. Moreover, the Employers' Organisation's own survey6
also found a drop in 2002.
Destinations
4. Teacher resignations in Chart 2 include
teachers leaving to take posts in other schools as well as those
leaving the profession. Chart 3 shows the range of destinations
of those leaving full-time posts in secondary schools in 2003.
Chart 3
DESTINATIONS OF LEAVERS FROM FULL-TIME POSTS
IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS
|
| Destination | Per Cent of Those Leaving
|
| Permanent Posts
| Fixed-Term Posts
|
| 2002
| 2003 | 2002
| 2003 |
|
| Full-Time Maintained School | 46.0
| 45.5 | 24.7
| 27.2 |
| Part-Time Maintained School | 1.4
| 0.7 | 0.8
| 0.4 |
| Supply Teaching | 1.9
| 1.8 | 11.8
| 9.3 |
| Independent School | 3.7
| 2.6 | 2.4
| 2.4 |
| Teaching Abroad | 4.2
| 5.8 | 7.5
| 8.9 |
| Lecturing FE/HE | 0.7
| 0.7 | 0.4
| 0.8 |
| Other Education | 5.4
| 4.0 | 0.8
| 2.4 |
| Other Employment | 5.3
| 4.7 | 3.9
| 5.3 |
| Maternity | 2.8
| 2.3 | 0.4
| 0.4 |
| Family Care | 2.2
| 1.9 | 0.4
| 0.4 |
| Travel | 3.9
| 4.0 | 6.7
| 4.1 |
| Overseas Ret Home | 0.0
| 0.4 | 0.0
| 1.6 |
| Normal-Age Retirement | 4.9
| 5.7 | 1.6
| 1.2 |
| Ill Health Retirement | 2.5
| 2.2 | 0.4
| 0.0 |
| Early Retirement | 6.9
| 7.7 | 0.8
| 0.8 |
| Redundancy | 0.0
| 0.4 | 0.0
| 0.0 |
| Other | 3.5
| 3.4 | 4.3
| 0.8 |
| Not Known | 4.7
| 6.3 | 33.3
| 33.7 |
| Total N1 | 2,087
| 2,048 | 255
| 246 |
|
1 Resignations and contracts ending in 10 per cent sample
of secondary schools in England.
Turnover and Wastage Rates
5. The different destinations can be encapsulated as
turnover and wastage. The DfES defines turnover as all full-time
teachers resigning or finishing their contracts, and wastage as
full-time teachers leaving to take other than a full-time post
in another maintained school. Chart 4 shows the data of Chart
3 presented in this form with primary schools included for comparison.
Chart 4
TURNOVER AND WASTAGE OF FULL-TIME TEACHERS
|
| Measure | Secondary1
| Primary2
|
|
| 2002
| 2003 | 2002
| 2003 |
| Turnover | 13.1
| 12.8 | 15.3
| 13.6 |
| Wastage | 7.3
| 7.2 | 9.3
| 9.2 |
|
1 Based on 10 per cent representative sample.
2 Based on 5 per cent representative sample.
6. It shows there has been little change in the turnover
and wastage rates in secondary schools from 2002 to 2003. The
turnover rate of about 1 in 8 full-time teachers compares not
unfavourably with the 12.4 per cent from the health service and
11.5 per cent from local authorities7, and is considerably better
than the 26 per cent reported for the retail industries7. Both
turnover and wastage tend to be higher in primary schools, attributable
in part to the higher proportion of female teachers in that phase.
Turnover but not wastage was down in this phase in 2003 associated
with fewer opportunities to move because of falling rolls.
Region
7. Turnover and wastage varied with region. Chart 5 shows
that both turnover and wastage tend to be higher in the south
and east, particularly in Inner London.
Chart 5
TURNOVER AND WASTAGE IN SECONDARY PHASE BY REGION
|
| Region | % Turnover
| % Wastage
|
|
| 2002
| 2003 | 2002
| 2003 |
| North East | 9.5
| 14.1 | 4.9
| 6.0 |
| North West | 10.1
| 10.1 | 5.4
| 5.8 |
| Yorks & Humber | 13.6
| 11.8 | 8.0
| 6.3 |
| East Midlands | 11.0
| 12.1 | 5.7
| 7.8 |
| West Midlands | 12.5
| 11.6 | 6.4
| 6.3 |
| East of England | 14.9
| 13.2 | 7.8
| 7.6 |
| Inner London | 17.5
| 13.3 | 10.7
| 9.3 |
| Outer London | 15.4
| 14.4 | 9.5
| 7.9 |
| South East | 14.2
| 14.7 | 8.2
| 7.8 |
| South West | 13.1
| 14.7 | 8.5
| 9.4 |
| Total | 13.1
| 12.8 | 7.3
| 7.2 |
|
8. There is broad similarity between 2003 and 2002. Overall
turnover is slightly down, but Chart 5 shows that this conceals
differences within regions. In the Inner London there is, for
example, quite a sharp fall, but there are increases in the North
East and South West. Although it is probably not the only factor
operating, it is worth noting that London has the largest fall
in secondary pupil numbers while the North East and South West
have the largest increases9. Consistent with the argument that
changes in pupil numbers are having a discernible effect on turnover,
through their impact on the opportunity to move to another school,
is that the difference in wastage in these regions between the
two years is much less.
School Type
9. Full-time teachers leaving from one school to take
a post in another tend to move to schools in less challenging
circumstances. Chart 6 shows that turnover, but not wastage, was
linked to pupils' GCSE results, socio-economic background and
special educational needs. When schools were compared on these
characteristics, turnover was found to be a third or more higher
in schools in the less favourable situations.
Chart 6
TEACHER TURNOVER AND WASTAGE IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY INTAKE
|
| Group | GSCE Results
| Free School Meals
| Special Needs
|
|
| Turnover
| Wastage | Turnover
| Wastage | Turnover
| Wastage |
| Above Average | 11.48
| 7.06 | 16.21
| 7.55 | 16.52
| 7.58 |
| Average | 12.76
| 7.01 | 13.34
| 7.62 | 13.40
| 7.65 |
| Below Average | 15.54
| 8.02 | 12.10
| 7.42 | 11.99
| 7.32 |
|
Age
10. Chart 7 shows that turnover among teachers under
30 is about 25 per cent. Thus about one in four young teachers
leaves their school (though not necessarily the profession) each
year. Schools sometimes feel that teacher retention is a greater
problem than the overall figures show and this may because these
high rates of loss among their newer recruits are particularly
noticeable. The mobility of the young is understandable in that
they will tend to have fewer commitments, may be looking for wider
experience, and indeed may be on fixed-term contracts.
Chart 7
TURNOVER AND WASTAGE IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS BY AGE
|
| Age | % Turnover
| % Wastage
|
|
| 2002
| 2003 | 2002
| 2003 |
| Under 30 | 27.0
| 25.7 | 10.4
| 9.6 |
| 30-39 | 17.1
| 16.0 | 7.3
| 6.5 |
| 40-49 | 5.4
| 4.4 | 4.1
| 4.4 |
| 50 and Over | 9.7
| 11.5 | 9.0
| 10.9 |
| Total | 13.1
| 12.8 | 7.3
| 7.2 |
|
11. Wastage among young leavers is half or less of turnover
because of moves to other schools. But turnover among the over
50s is almost all wastage. Wastage among the younger and older
teachers tends to be higher than that of those in their middle
years. About three-fifths of the profession is over 40 so there
have to be doubts about whether it is adequately renewing itself.
Likelihood of Return
12. Chart 8 shows that approaching 30 per cent of the
young leavers thought it likely that they would return to full-time
teaching, particularly those going to travel or teach abroad.
Only a handful of those leaving after the age of 50 thought they
would return to teaching full-time although more were willing
to contemplate supply.
Chart 8
LIKELIHOOD OF RETURN
|
| | |
|
| Per Cent "Likely"
|
| Age | 2002
| 2003 |
| Under 30 | 28.3
| 29.5 |
| 30-39 | 26.9
| 22.9 |
| 40-49 | 11.6
| 7.7 |
| 50 and Over | 7.6
| 4.8 |
| All | 18.3
| 14.6 |
|
RECRUITMENT
13. The other side of the coin is recruitment. The latest
information comes from a survey10 of applications to posts available
for September 2003. The average number of applications received
in response to an advertisement varied considerably between the
primary and secondary phases, and with the type of post.
Chart 9
APPLICATIONS TO FULL-TIME PERMANENT POSTS
|
| Applicants per Post
|
|
| Type of Post | Secondary
| Primary |
| Headteacher | 16.2
| 9.2 |
| Deputy/Assist Head | 22.3
| 6.9 |
| Head of Dept/Faculty | 4.3
| |
| Classroom Teachers | 5.3
| 16.4 |
| Overall | 6.0
| 15.2 |
|
In keeping with ease of recruitment to training, and also
falling rolls, Chart 9 shows that each advertised primary post
attracted about 15 applicants compared to six for each secondary
post, but the differences were even greater when the nature of
the post is taken into account. Primary classroom posts attracted
three times as many applications those in secondary schools. But
for headships and deputy headships the position was reversed.
A deputy headship in a secondary school was likely to attract
three times as many applicants as one in a primary school, and
a headship nearly twice as many.
Applications by Region
14. Chart 10 shows there was considerable variation
in applications with region. The overall shape is similar to that
for resignations with the south and east again faring less well
than other parts of the country. Average primary applications
ranged from 3.8 per post in Outer London to 33.9 per post in the
North East. Applications to secondary posts followed a similar
pattern to primary applications although at about one third the
level. Again, the North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the
South West did relatively well and London, the East and the South
East relatively poorly. But there is also an intriguing contrast
in the North East.
Chart 10
APPLICATIONS BY REGION
|
| Applicants per Post
|
|
| Region | Secondary
| Primary |
| North East | 3.9
| 33.9 |
| North West | 7.9
| 26.2 |
| Yorks & Humber | 6.6
| 31.4 |
| East Midlands | 6.1
| 16.1 |
| West Midlands | 5.3
| 14.3 |
| East of England | 3.2
| 9.1 |
| Inner London | 3.0
| 10.3 |
| Outer London | 3.4
| 3.8 |
| South East | 3.9
| 12.3 |
| South West | 7.0
| 28.1 |
| Wales | 9.4
| 7.0 |
| Total1 | 5.3
| 16.4 |
|
Applications by Subject
15. There was also wide variation with subject. Chart
11 shows that history posts attracted, on average, about three
times as many applications as those in maths, music, RE and Welsh.
Art and geography also did relatively well, but English, design
and technology and information and communications technology had
to make do with between four and five applications per post. The
position in physics is even worse than that in maths, but its
position is masked by the ready recruitment to biology which falls
in the same subject category.
16. Headteachers were also asked to rate the quality
of the applications they were receiving. Quality was perceived
to vary, to some extent, with the number of applications that
were received. Over three-quarters of the applicants to the history
and art posts were rated "good" down to maths where
only 35 per cent were put in this category. This spectrum is consistent
with the training figures. While history teacher training has
no difficulty in meeting its targets, maths has always struggled
and, in spite of incentives, 15 per cent of the places still remain
unfilled. Further, an analysis11 in 2000 showed nearly two-thirds
of history graduates recruited to teaching held a first or upper-second
compared with only a third in maths.
Chart 11
APPLICATIONS BY SUBJECT
|
| | |
|
| Subject | Applicants per Post
| % Good |
| History | 11.8
| 76.9 |
| Art | 10.0
| 81.3 |
| Geography | 8.0
| 55.6 |
| Science1 | 5.7
| 44.9 |
| PE | 5.6 |
68.9 |
| Modern Languages | 5.5
| 55.4 |
| ICT | 4.6 |
50.0 |
| Design & Technology3 | 4.5
| 50.9 |
| English2 | 4.3
| 55.5 |
| Maths | 4.0
| 35.0 |
| Music | 3.8
| 40.0 |
| RE | 3.5 |
39.0 |
| Welsh | 3.2
| 20.0 |
| Other4 | 4.8
| 62.0 |
| Total | 5.3
| 52.6 |
|
1 Includes physics, chemistry, biology, science and other
science.
2 Includes drama.
3 Includes business studies and home economics.
4 Includes SEN and subjects other than those listed.
REQUIREMENT
17. The requirement for teachers is driven mainly by
pupil numbers. With per pupil funding, the number of teachers
that a school can afford will rise and fall with its intake. Chart
12 projects the likely relative requirement for teachers through
to 2010 assuming that present pupil-teacher ratios are maintained.
Pupil numbers in secondary schools have been rising through to
2004, but are now set to fall so that by 2010 some 12,000 fewer
teachers will be needed. Primary numbers have been falling and
with them the requirement for teachers. The latest DfES statistics12
show that in January 2004 there were 1,400 fewer qualified regular
full-time equivalent teachers in nursery and primary schools than
in January 2003, and that comes on top of a reduction of 1,200
in the previous year. In primary schools alone (excluding nursery)
the impact may have been even greater. Statistics of Education:
Schools in England13 reveals a reduction of 3,400 qualified full-time-equivalent
teachers from the previous year.
18. Fewer posts in the primary phase may have contributed
to the reduction in turnover noted in Chart 4. There will also
have been competition from the buoyant recruitment to primary
teacher training. The large number applicants per post suggest
we could be heading for a surplus of primary teachers, and consequent
unemployment, in some parts of the country. But for the secondary
phase, even though pupil numbers will soon be declining, there
are still appreciable recruitment shortfalls to be made up in
a number of subjects.
July 2004
REFERENCES
1. Smithers, A and Robinson, P (2004). Teacher Turnover,
Wastage and Destinations. London: DfES.
2. DfES (2002). Simplicity, Security and Choice: Working
and Saving for Retirement. Pensions Green Paper. London: The
Stationery Office.
3. DfES (2003). Statistics of Education. School Workforce
in England 2003 Edition. London: The Stationery Office, Table
7, page 19.
4. School Teachers' Review Body (2004). Thirteen Report—Part
2. Cm 6164. London: The Stationery Office.
5. Eurydice (2002). The Teaching Profession in Europe:
Profile, Trends and Concerns. Report II. Teacher Supply and Demand
at General Lower Secondary Level. Brussels: Eurydice European
Unit.
6. National Commission on Teaching and America's Future.
(2003). No Dream Denied. A Pledge to America's Children. Washington:
NCTAF.
7. Employers' Organisation for Local Government (2002).
Survey of Teacher Resignations and Recruitment 1885/6-2001.
London: Employers' Organisation for Local Government.
8. Smithers, A and Robinson, P (2004). Teacher Turnover,
Wastage and Destinations. London: DfES.
9. Smithers, A and Robinson, P (2003). Factors Affecting
Teachers' Decisions to Leave the Profession. Research Report
430. London: DfES.
10. Employers' Organisation for Local Government (2004).
Survey of Teacher Resignations and Recruitment 1885/6-2002.
London: Employers' Organisation for Local Government.
11. Whitmuir Report (2000). Recruitment and Retention
of Classroom Teachers. London: Office of Manpower Economics.
12. Reed Personnel Services (1999). Rising Staff Turnover:
How is UK Business Responding?
13. DfES (2003). Statistics of Education. School Workforce
in England 2003 Edition. London: The Stationery Office.
14. Smithers, A and Robinson, P (2003c). The Reality
of School Staffing. London: NUT.
15. Smithers, A and Robinson, P (2000). Attracting
Teachers: Past Patterns, Present Policies, Future Prospects. Liverpool:
Carmichael Press.
16. DfES (2004b) School Workforce in England, January
2004 (Provisional). Statistical First Release 09/2004. London:
DfES.
17. DfES (2003) Statistics of Education. Schools in
England 2003 Edition. London: The Stationery Office, Table
25, page 50 compared with 2002 edition, table 25, page 48.
| 
