Examination of Witnesses (Questions 180-182)
SIR BEN
GILL AND
MR MARTIN
HAWORTH
21 JANUARY 2004
Q180 Mr Lepper: February, and an announcement
is expected then?
Sir Ben Gill: Before then.
Q181 Mr Lepper: Before then. I notice
the Parliamentary Private Secretary left the room shortly after
that stage! I think the NFU has said that it does not envisage
this reform of the CAP as the last word. Perfection has not yet
been reached. Could you hazard a guess at when we will be looking
at the next major reform of the CAP, particularly the new freedom
that you will have as you move on to other things and just in
very brief outline what that might involve?
Sir Ben Gill: Well, I think it
is important to recognise that, while we have the essential ingredients
of the CAP reform agreed, there is still significant work to do
in some of the sectors. The ones that do not pertain to Britain,
of course, are cotton, olive oil and tobacco, but of major significance
is a reform of the sugar industry, which has yet to be even faced
with firm proposals. We anticipate they will come out in April
of this year, but because of the vagaries of the European election,
the appointment of a new commission, we do not see any progress
in that until well into 2005, with a possibility that the changes
could be implemented in 2006. That is a separate issue in itself,
which should not be ignored. I do not see that there will be a
significant change of the order of magnitude that we are about
to experience for the foreseeable future, but I do see that there
will be reviews. There will be reviews based on the sort of criteria
we have talked about, about the balance between pillar one and
pillar two, and the individual sizes of the payments that we will
have to look at and defend appropriately. There is, I must point
out, a degree of nonsense talked about by certain groups of people
who really should know better. The suggestion that the absolute
level of payment is something that should be decried fails to
recognise the fact that we have a larger farming structure in
Britain and that those larger farms in themselves support a number
of farming families as employees on them. It would be folly, therefore,
to send a wrong measure in that reform that sought to encourage
very small people at the expense of the more effective and efficient
operations. There seems to be some misconception that you can
help people increase their status in society, their individual
income, by making sure they are encouraged to become smaller,
which of itself means they are going to be likely to reduce their
ability to increase their individual wealth. What farmers need
is real wealth, the ability to generate it and the business environment
in which to do it. Do you have a vision for the future? I have
a very real vision for the future, which I have explored in bits
over time with this Committee. I believe that we are at the start
of a major change in many of the dynamics within the UK, European
and world agriculture. There is not just the pattern of prices
that we have seen in recent times, particularly in the cereal
sector, which has evolved principally from the changed dynamics
in the Chinese market but on the back of the fact that for the
last few years we have been consuming, year after year, more cereals
than we have been producing. World wheat stocks at the end of
last year were probably as low as 60 days. I think we are going
to see, Chairman, much as many politicians would not like to recognise,
the re-emergence of food security as a major issue. I recognise
that in some countries in Europe this is already being acted upon
by some of the major food processors, who are seeking to establish
more long-term, secure lines of supply. The change in dynamics
of the world population in China will exacerbate that, with their
wealth giving them the ability, their free foreign exchanges giving
them the strength, to go and buy on world markets. The dynamics
in Africa will be somewhat different. You may well be aware that
I have worked in Africa and revisited it last year and am horrified
by some of the simplistic analysis and requirements that have
been carried out by world bodies, such as the World Bank, to try
and impose on developing countries the rigors of economic criteria
more appropriate to a developed country with quite disastrous
effects. That has caused me some degree of concern and anger,
particularly with some of the NGOs ostensibly having world development
in their sights who seemed to have a dramatic lack of understanding
of what is in the best interests of the actual working peasant
farmer in those countries. I have discussed that with working
farmers on a par in a number of countries in Africa. I think,
if I may be chosen to finish, Chairman, with another dynamic,
which I do not believe anybody is tackling sufficiently well,
either here or in the world, which is one that should worry us
all, and that is the changed dynamics from climate change, which
are very, very real. The first estimates, Chairman, of lost food
production in Europe last year have been put at 13.1 billion Euros.
That does not take into account the cost of the destruction to
the river traffic on the Danube, the major artery of commerce
for large parts of central Europe, which in itself is a figure
that I cannot begin to quantify. It is my memory, speaking as
an older person, that it was an unusual event on the weather forecast
to have an inch of rain. We now regularly see two inches of rain,
and the prediction is that we will move to a climate with rain
increasingly concentrated into the winter periods, with water
availability in the summer periods becoming a critical issue.
The need to address these problems, which essentially derive from
the increasing uses of mineral resources to fuel the demands of
society either through liquid fuels or, indeed, through increasing
energy use, are decisions and issues that governments around the
would are going to have to address sooner or later. It cannot
be had both ways. For example, if the energy needs are to be met,
the only other alternative not to do so would be to start saying
you cannot use the power the way you have done, and we would have
to have rationing of electricity; both equally unpopular decisions;
but farming has a major role to play in this because farming can
resort to what it is used to be, a major provider of raw materials
for industry in a sustainable closed cycle that is environmentally
sustainable in more senses of the word than is normally used and
which would then derive a proper business income for the farming
industry and ensure that they were not all dependent, and have
all their eggs in one basket, the basket of food production, and
would deliver a balanced and sustainable income. By 2020, Chairman,
I have predicted on a number of occasions, a quarter of our land
mass could be engaged in that production. That will be a changed
dynamic we need to exploit, and the Government would do well to
encourage and promote, by appropriate measures rather than to
ignore.
Mr Lepper: Can I just say how glad I
am I asked that question.
Q182 Chairman: As stimulating at the
end, as you always have been as far as the Committee is concerned.
The Committee has to focus in the next few days on its future
inquiries. I think you have marked our card on a couple of those
in a very emphatic and interesting way. Can I thank you once again,
not only for your evidence today, but for your contribution to
our proceedings on previous occasions and re-emphasise, I am sure,
the very warm wishes of colleagues, both today and those who have
been on committees before, in wishing you well as you move from
being the President of the National Farmers Union to no doubt
other interesting, challenging and, indeed, significant contributions
to agriculture overall.
Sir Ben Gill: Thank you very much,
Chairman.
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