Further CAP reform
51. For the CAP itself, the absorption of ten new
countries is a significant and unpredictable challenge at a time
when it is undergoing a major reform.[61]
Given the striking differences between them, the NMS are unlikely
to speak with one voice when it comes to deciding future agricultural
policies.
52. The NFU argues that enlargement means that a
"coalition of Germany and France should be much less able
to set the course for Europe" in terms of agricultural policy,
with many of the New Members, "for historical reasons [being]
reluctant to be dominated by their bigger neighbours".[62]
53. There is real danger that the political decision-making
process will be gridlocked as a consequence of enlargement, to
the extent that there will be no qualified majority to move away
from the status quo. More so than before, further CAP reform will
be dependent on external shocks to the system in the form of multilateral
trade agreements.[63]
Burden on the EU budget
54. All the NMS are expected to be net beneficiaries
of the EU budget. Enlargement will therefore place an increasing
financial burden on those countries who are currently net-contributors
to the budget. Future budget negotiations, including the financing
of the CAP, may well become increasingly difficult.[64]
The agricultural burden on the budget is likely to be further
exacerbated with the accession of Bulgaria and Romania, two relatively
poor and agrarian countries.
55. Consequently, it is inevitable that finite
budgetary resources will be spread increasingly thinly across
an enlarged Europe. As EU membership grows to 25 and beyond, the
need for structural and cohesive funds will compete more fiercely
against demands for agricultural support. The longer-term effect
can be only in the direction of reduced agricultural support for
farmers in longer-standing EU Member States such as the UK.
58 Farm policy is currently determined by the consultation
procedure, which gives the EU farm ministers the final decision
after hearing the European Parliament's opinion on the matter
under discussion. Back
59
Q 227 Back
60
Q 229 Back
61
"EU enlargement: taking stock as history beckons", Agra
Europe, 23 April 2004, A/2 Back
62
National Farmers' Union, EU Enlargement: The Challenge for
British Farming, (London, 2004), p 22 Back
63
Christian Henning and Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, "Will enlargement
gridlock CAP reforms? A political economy perspective", EuroChoices,
vol 3 (2004), pp 38-43 Back
64
Ev 70 Back