House of Commons - Foreign Affairs

Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Written Evidence

Further note from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office

FCO PSA 4: Improve effectiveness of the UK contribution to the conflict prevention and management as demonstrated by a reduction in the number of people whose lives are affected by violent conflict and a reduction in potential sources of future conflict, where the UK can make a significant impact. JOINT TARGET WITH MOD AND DFID

Assessment indicators:

AHEAD—four out of four sub-targets must be either MET or AHEAD

ON COURSE—three out of four sub-targets must be judged to be ON COURSE

SOME SLIP—two out of four sub-targets judged as ON COURSE

MAJOR SLIP—only one out of four sub-targets judged to be ON COURSE

Progress against the PSA Target in 2000-06 will be measured using:

(a) Global Pool sub-targets on Afghanistan, Nepal, Macedonia, Georgia, Israel/Occupied Territories, Sri Lanka, contribute 25% to PSA target

— A 10% reduction in fatalities from a SIPRI baseline of 7,800 in 2000 to 7,000 by 2006.

— A 10% reduction in fatalities from an IISS baseline of 19,000 to 2000 to 17,000 by 2006.

— A 10% reduction in refugees from a UNHCR baseline of 3,800,000 in 2000 to 3,400,000 by 2006.

— A 10% reduction in internally displaced persons from a USCR baseline of 1,500,000 in 2000 to 1,350,000 by 2006.

(b) Africa Pool sub-targets on Sierra Leone, DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, contribute 25% to PSA target

— A 20% reduction in fatalities from a SIPRI baseline of 6,500 in 2000 to 5,200 by 2006.

— A 20% reduction in fatalities from an IISS baseline of 48,000 in 2000 to 38,000 in 2006.

— A 20% reduction in refugees from a UNHCR baseline of 2,400,000 in 2000 to 1,900,000 by 2006.

— A 20% reduction in internally displaced people from a USCR baseline of 10,300,000 in 2000 to 8,200,000 by 2006.

(c) Conflict Level Assessment Tool sub-targets contribute 50% to PSA target (25% in each Pool)—a new product measuring variations in potential sources of future conflict is being created.

Definitions:

(a) The Conflict Prevention Pools

(i) The Global and Africa Pools were created in April 2001, as policy mechanisms to improve UK conflict prevention policy and impact using a joined-up approach between FGO, MOD and DFID. HMT and Cabinet Office also play an important coordinating role. The Pools bring together peacekeeping and programme budgets, for the first time.

(ii) FCO manage the Global Pool—the Foreign Secretary chairs the Cabinet committee; and DFID manage the Africa Pool—the International Development Secretary chairs the Cabinet committee.

(b) PSA Target

(i) The PSA target contains two distinct elements requiring measurement: the number of people whose lives are affected by conflict and a reduction in the potential sources of future conflict. Fatalities, refugees, internally displaced people (IDPs) will measure the first element and the new Conflict Level Assessment Tool on variations in the level of conflict will measure the second element.

(ii) Conflict defined by SIPRI is "the use of armed force between the military forces of two or more governments, or one government and at least one organised armed group and the incompatibility concerns control of government and/or territory".

(iii) "Where the UK can make a significant contribution" defines the countries/regions where the UK can make an important input to reducing or preventing conflict.

(i) Fatalities according to SIPRI refer to "total battle related deaths, civilian and military, caused by warring parties which can be directly connected to the conflict". IISS use a similar definition.

(ii) A refugee is defined by the 1951 Convention as "a person who owing to well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion is outside their country of nationality and is unable or unwilling to return".

(iii) Internally Displaced People (IDPs) defined by UN Guiding Principles are "people who are forced or obliged to flee or leave their homes or places of habitual residence, to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights, natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised state border".

Issues:

(a) Assessing Progress

(i) An overall assessment of progress will be based not only on data but also on a narrative assessment, to compensate for the weakness of data sources on fatalities, refugees and IDPs eg a major outbreak of conflict in one country could increase numbers significantly, distorting progress made in other countries. The UK's diplomatic achievements contributing to reduced conflict will be cited eg mobilising an effective international response.

(ii) Progress will initially be measured separately for each Pool, including the impact of programmes/strategies in each Pool, before a joint overall assessment is made against the PSA target.

(iii) The PSA relates to 2003-06, however baseline data relates to 2000. A time lag of one year exists before data is available in each year. All baseline data relates to 2000. A final assessment will be made in 2007 using 2006 data.

(iv) The countries selected for assessing fatalities, refugees and IDPs is a specific group—it does not include every country covered by each Pool.

(v) Isolating the UK's distinct contribution from international and other actors is difficult, and the target is subject to high risks eg the UK cannot control the policies of other actors, small arms proliferation etc.

(b) Data limitations

(i) Accurate data on fatalities, refugees and IDPs is not available but is taken from the best available sources. For example SIPRI state the figures represent a minimum indicator but real figures may be much higher.

(ii) Both SIPRI and IISS use the starting marker of 1,000 battle-related deaths each year for major conflicts—an arbitrary starting point. To provide a more accurate assessment, additional data from IISS and the States in Armed Conflict Report is included to capture data on fatalities below 100—included in the 2000 baseline.

(iii) SIPRI and IISS utilize different sources in collecting data and produce significantly different fatality statistics for the same conflicts, we will therefore use their data to assess overall trends.

(iv) Attributing what proportion of refugee/IDP displacement is caused directly by conflict is acknowledged as problematic. Refugee data is based on the number of refugees from each country and not in each country.

SOURCES

(a) Fatalities

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook data and International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance data will be used to measure conflict fatality numbers above 1000. To include fatalities below 1,000, data from the States in Armed Conflict Report, University of Uppsala (who produce SIPRI's data) and the IISS Small Conflicts Database (to be launched publicly in January 2003) is also included in the baseline/targets.

(b) Refugees

The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) are mandated to deal with refugees and compile annual data on refugee numbers in "Populations of Concern to UNHCR".

United States Committee for Refugees (USCR) data is used for 2000 baseline data because it is the only source available. However all future assessments will use Global IDP project data from the Norwegian Refugee Council—because it is now recognised as the best IDP data source combining data from all the main IDP agencies.

(d) Potential sources of future conflict

A new Conflict Level Assessment Tool is being developed. This Technical Note will be updated to provide further details.

FCO PSA 7: Make globalisation work for sustainable development in the UK and internationally (and particularly in Africa) by promoting democracy and the rule of law, good economic and environmental governance, and security of long-term energy supply, measured by specific underlying targets.

This target will be measured using the following scorecards (agreed between FCO and HMT) covering the five elements of the target: (a) increased democracy and the rule of law; (b) more effective economic governance; (c) more effective environmental governance; (d) enhanced security of energy supplies; (e) reformed and efficient international organisations (the UN, OSCE, OECD and Council of Europe), offering better value for money for the UK. Scorecards (b)—(e) are classified.

(a) Increased democracy and the rule of law

Functioning democracies are defined as "independent countries whose primary legislature and heads of government are elected by a majority vote from two or more opposing choices by secret ballot in a climate which fully permits freedom of expression, assembly and association." Sources for measuring this include: Freedom House's Democracy Audit; UNDP Human Development Reports; the State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices; election monitoring reports from EU. OSCE, Council of Europe, other regional bodies and NGOs.

Ratifications are notified to the UN and recorded immediately on the website of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

A fully independent and impartial judiciary is defined as: "a judiciary which is able to fulfil its function without improper influence or inappropriate interference from the executive, legislature, business interests or other non-state actors; and in accordance with principles of justice (eg due process and equality before the law) as set out in the 1985 UN Basic Principles on the Independence of the Judiciary". Sources available to measure this include the International Committee of Jurists' (FCO Human Rights Policy Fund (HRPF)-funded) annual Attacks on Justice Report; Transparency International reports, the State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices; International Bar Association and Law Society reports and other NGO reports.

— International Criminal Court (ICC): 100 ratifications and 20 more States parties complete domestic implementation legislation by end-2003.

The ICC came into force on 1 July 2002. By September 2002, 79 countries had ratified. Only 9 had completed domestic implementation. The UK assessed contribution in the First Financial Period (until 31 December 2003) is approximately £2.25 million.

ICTY was set up in 1994 by UNSCR to try those responsible for war crimes committed in former Yugoslavia throughout the 1990s; its temporal jurisdiction remain open. Chief Prosecutor has however drawn up a strategy to complete trials by 2008. The UK assessed contribution in 2002/3 is approximately £5.5 million.

The Special Court for Sierra Leone (SLSC) was established in July 2002. Aims: to try 20-30 of "those most responsible" for Sierra Leone war crimes within 4 years of its establishment; although UNSC mandated, SLSC is a hybrid, funded by voluntary contributions from States.

At February 2003, six African States have ratified the Protocol leading to the creation of the Court: another nine have to do so before the Court can be established.

(b) More effective economic governance

Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals is measured at least annually and published by UNDP.

(ii) More countries implementing international standards on investment, corruption, tax and money laundering. Measurements:

Ratifications of the UN Convention will be notified to the UN and recorded on the website.

Ratification of IPPAs is a public, legal act by the UK and co- signatory government.

The FATF blacklist is published at least six monthly.

Ratifications of the OECD Convention will be notified to the OECD and recorded publicly.

Progress will be measured against the World Bank triennial survey of economic governance indicators including effective regulation, sound business environment, rule of law, control of corruption. Immediate progress can be measured by subsidiary surveys carried out in different countries during the PSA period. "Significant" means a statistically significant change as set out in the World Bank methodology.

(iv) Formal agreement on transparency of payments from major corporations in extractive industries with at least five countries by 2004, 10 by 2005.

Agreement by end of 2004 of a developed role for the Commission on Sustainable Development that allows it to act as an integrating mechanism for overall progress on sustainable development with each individual strand effectively managed by the appropriate specialist institution. Reports from UNEP and Post on universal membership and funding.

Entry in force of Kyoto conditional on ratification by 55 signatories covering 55% of Annex 1 (developed country) emissions.

Success will be measured against UK goals for the Doha Development Agenda.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Aarhus Convention on Access to Environmental Information and Participation in Decision Making is the benchmark against which progress will be measured. Priority countries are those in Eastern & Central Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia (ie non-EU European UNECE member states) and countries where the Access Initiative operates (Chile, India, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Uganda, Nigeria).

(d) Enhanced security of energy supplies

Key oil states: Russia, Kazakhstan, Sudan, Libya, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Angola. Measured by IEA statistics.

Measured by International Energy Agency (IEA) audit process.

Measured by IEA audit process.

Measure increased in renewables using IEA statistics and through mechanisms set up to monitor and report on achievement of WSSD goals—for energy targets likely to be through the Commission on Sustainable Development.

(e) Reformed and efficient international organisations (the UN, OECD, OSCE and Council of Europe), offering better value for money for the UK.

Review by December 2003 of OECD's budgeting structure, including a more rigorous examination of the distorting effects and opportunity costs of voluntary contributions, enhancing our ability to target resources at priority activities. Adoption of revised Financial Regulations by OSCE Permanent Council and introduction of better co-ordinated, objective-led budget procedures including improved monitoring and accountability by December 2003. results based budgeting in all UN budget documents by March 2004.

A successful conclusion to the International Civil Service Commission's review of pay and benefits by December 2003, which limits costs while preserving the existing agreed methodology, and ongoing implementation throughout the UN Secretariat of HR reforms as improved mobility arrangements and performance appraisal systems. Adoption of revised Staff Regulations by OSCE Permanent Council and effective deployment (no time lag) of OSCE Human Resources in the field and at the centre of July 2003.

Streamlined working methods across directorates, through the introduction of clusters of work, leading to less duplication of effort within OECD by December 2003; Adoption of CoE of European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) reform plan by June 2003, leading to a faster through-put of cases before the ECHR. No more than 10% (down from one-third) awaiting judgement beyond three-year set limit by March 2005.

PSA AND PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING TARGETS


SR02 PSA targets	Assessment of progress

PSA 1: Reduce the threat to the UK from international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Reduce international crime, drugs and people-trafficking affecting the UK, measured by Whitehall-wide targets. Contribute to the reduction of opium production in Afghanistan, with poppy cultivation by 70% within five years and elimination within 10 years.	Significant progress in some areas but likely final outcome not yet clear.
PSA 2: Reduce tension in South Asia, the Middle East, Balkans and elsewhere through action with our international partners, paying particular attention to regions at risk from nuclear confrontation.	Significant progress in some areas but likely final outcome not yet clear.
PSA 3: Strengthen European security through an enlarged and modernised NATO, and effective EU crisis management capacity and enhanced European defence capabilities. JOINT TARGET WITH MOD	On course.
PSA 4: Improve effectiveness of the UK contribution to conflict prevention and management as demonstrated by a reduction in the number of people whose lives are affected by violent conflict and a reduction in potential sources of future conflict, where the UK can make a significant impact. JOINT TARGET WITH MOD AND DFID	Not yet assessed.
PSA 5: Deliver measurable improvement in the business performance of Trade Partners UK's customers; and maintain the UK as the prime location in the EU for foreign direct investment. JOINT TARGET WITH DTI	On course with new-to-export firms and investment indicators. Slippage in other areas.
PSA 6: Secure agreement by 2005 to a significant reduction in trade barriers leading to improved trading opportunities for the UK in developing countries. JOINT TARGET WITH DTI AND DFID	Some slippage.
PSA 7: Make globalisation work for sustainable development in the UK and internationally (and particularly in Africa) by promoting democracy and the rule of law, good economic and environmental governance, and security of long-term energy supply, measured by specific underlying targets.	Significant progress in some areas but likely final outcome not yet clear.
PSA 8: A modern, reformed, and enlarged EU, as measured by progress towards UK policy priorities including economic liberalisation, CAP reform, justice and home affairs, an effective CFSP, and the 2004 IGC; and greater support for Europe in the UK.	On course.
PSA 9: Effective advice on, support for, and delivery of Government objectives across the full range of the UK's international interests through a viable and responsive network of diplomatic Posts. Increased influence overseas and improved perceptions of UK and HMG policies, as measured by opinion polls.	On course.
PSA 10: Effective and efficient consular and entry clearance services, as measured by specific underlying targets.	On course with seven out of ten indicators. Some slippage with others.
PSA 11: Improvement in the governance, environment and security of the overseas territories, and more diversified economic development, as measured by implementation of the commitments in the 1999 White Paper.	On course.
PSA 12: Improve value for money across the full range of FCO, BBC World Service and British Council activities by achieving year on year efficiency gains of 2.5%.	On course.

Table 1: A summary of the FCO's SR2002 PSA targets and current progress in achieving them.



© Parliamentary copyright 2004	Prepared 23 September 2004