Examination of Witness (Questions 20-30)
4 NOVEMBER 2003
MS NOMI
BAR-YAACOV
Q20 Mr Hamilton: Presumably, the
poll will just further reinforce the view amongst Israeli leaders
at the moment that they do not need the outside world, that they
can look after themselves, defend themselves and they will continue
to do that.
Ms Bar-Yaacov: What this poll
is doing—I am not sure so much about the fighting by themselves—is
strengthening the Israeli/US ties. It is "We chose the US
and we are sticking to the US because look at where Europe is
at". That is the main effect. This do it alone and defend
ourselves is always going to be a part of Israeli thinking, but
Israel also wants to be a part of the world and is initiating
for the first time ever a resolution in the UN Security Council
and it is important to Israel to try to become a normal member
of the world. This poll is not going to help EU relations; it
is basically going to strengthen Israeli/US ties.
Q21 Mr Hamilton: May I come to Israeli
public opinion and the prospects for peace? Sir John touched on
the Geneva accords and, rightly so, you gave a very full answer
to that so I shall not pursue that for now. Clearly something
has to be done. Back in January this year, just before the Israeli
general election, many of us met with Amram Mitzna, the then leader
of the Israeli Labour Party, who is coming up with a very, very
similar view to Yossi Beilin, that Israel should withdraw to its
1967 boundaries, that Israel should dismantle the settlements,
or at least do a land swop with the Palestinians and that there
should be some final status negotiation over the future of Jerusalem
in dividing it up or running it as a city between a number of
different authorities. He was soundly beaten in the polls, rather
sadly I think, because what he said made a lot of sense. Since
then we have seen the continuation of what the Israelis told us
was a fence not a wall, yet we saw it for ourselves in Qalqilya
a town completely and utterly isolated, surrounded by a 25 foot
wall with one entrance and exit point, which did not help many
of us who wanted to see Israel prosper as well as the Palestinians;
it really did not help us argue for that very strongly. I suppose
my question is this. Israeli public opinion wants the violence
to stop. That seems to be the message of the polls. You mentioned
the poll which said 87% of Israelis want to negotiate a peace
settlement with the Palestinians yet 98% of the population supported
the re-occupation of parts of the West Bank. In other words, they
will do anything or support their leaders in any venture which
will stop the violence.
Ms Bar-Yaacov: Absolutely.
Q22 Mr Hamilton: What is the prospect
for peace? You were saying you were quite optimistic, but what
has changed since Amram Mitzna's terrible defeat in January to
bring people round now to the view that he may have been right?
Is there any chance that a Labour leader, whoever it might be,
together in coalition with Yossi Beilin and other like minded
people, might just win an election if it were called tomorrow?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: Fortunately there
will not be an election called tomorrow because if an election
were called tomorrow it would be too soon. The Left has to re-establish
itself.
Q23 Mr Hamilton: In six months' time?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: More. It will take
more than that. Elections are supposed to take place in four years'
time. When I said that earlier, I was not talking about the coming
months. I do not see this as a major crisis, I see this as a beginning
of a debate, but quite an important one. I meant the economic
factors as well, which should again not be undermined. Amram Mitzna
had a number of problems. He was a new politician. He was not
very charismatic. He did not have much popular support and he
resigned because of problems inside labour and the Israeli left
totally collapsed. The Israeli left today does not really exist
as an opposition movement, which is partially why there is so
much support for the Sharon government, because there is no viable
alternative political party. You are all politicians and you know
what it is like when there is no opposition: there is no opposition.
Q24 Mr Hamilton: We know.
Ms Bar-Yaacov: The reason things
may be changing is because time has passed and the situation has
grown worse and people are beginning to speak out. That is why
it may be changing.
Q25 Mr Hamilton: May I then move
on to the Palestinian side and ask you whether you believe that
Yasser Arafat actually wants to conclude a peace agreement, because
he has had many opportunities? If not, are there people like Abu
Ala, the new prime minister, with whom we met when we were there,
who are more of a prospect for peace? Are there people of Arafat's
generation who are determined to conclude a peace agreement or
is it hopeless?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: Arafat is a very
complicated character. The question should be whether he is capable
of delivering an agreement. I am not sure that he is, but I do
think that Abu Ala's government to be—since he has not formed
one yet—should be given a real chance and real backing by
the international community and pressure should be put on Israel
to create the necessary space for the Abu Ala government to be
able to operate. One of the reasons his predecessor failed, Abu
Mazim Abbas, was not only because of tensions between him and
Arafat, which were very important reasons which led to his resignation,
but because he did not let him operate independently and that
was a great shame. In addition Israel did not help his government
by continuously imposing curfews and demolishing houses and carrying
out targeted assassinations; all these actions undermine trust
and undermined his government. Abu Ala is really the last chance
for Palestine and peace prospects will very much depend on the
success of his government in carrying out the reforms that the
Road Map calls for, in carrying out the necessary security reform,
in cracking down on Hamas and Jihad, on collecting illegal arms
and streamlining the multiple security apparatus into one, in
operating in a transparent fashion and there—to answer Ms
Stuart's previous question—there is room for pressure and
there the UK Government can certainly help by ensuring that the
process is transparent and by ensuring that the atmosphere is
such that there is some breathing space for the government. That
means negotiating with Israel and the Palestinians. It means keeping
an open and constant dialogue and not letting it go for even a
minute.
Q26 Mr Hamilton: Given that the majority
of Palestinians believe that the military option is working and
should continue, including suicide bombings, how far is Palestinian
public opinion an obstacle in the way of peace and peace negotiations
and the dialogue you have just mentioned?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: It is very interesting.
Palestinian public opinion when negotiations take place sways
in favour of Fatah, sways in favour of the mainstream party. I
do think again that if there is a resumption, as there appears
to be, of talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians—and
I do think that the security co-operation has now been relaunched—those
moves should be encouraged. As you know, the Israeli head of Shin
Bet, the internal security forces, met with the head of the Palestinian
security forces and the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs met
with the Palestinian Minister of Finance and that is very, very
important because finance is part of the main problem there because
of corruption. Yes, I do think that Palestinian public opinion
will sway in favour of negotiations and it will be easier to crack
down on the extremes once there is a coherent Palestinian policy,
once a government has been established and much will depend on
whom they elect as Minister of the Interior and it is not clear
yet. Much will depend on international support. At the moment
it is total chaos in Palestine. I am not being over optimistic
here.
Q27 Mr Illsley: You have touched
on one or two of these questions already in terms of international
monitoring and verification. You are on record as saying that
verification and monitoring will be the key to success of the
Road Map. Is that now somewhat academic, given that the Road Map
has stalled and there is no likelihood perhaps of any action being
taken on it before 2005? Given that the Americans are not over
anxious to implement the Road Map, given that they sent the Wolf
delegation which failed because they were inexperienced and for
other reasons, plus, given the impending election, is there any
chance of any verification monitoring coming on the back of any
initiative at all or is that something which is a long way away?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: Verification and
monitoring are important at various levels and not only of the
Road Map. It is important at the moment to have international
involvement in the security negotiations. It depends how you define
monitoring and monitoring of what. If you are raising the profile
of the international community in supporting negotiations at any
level between Israelis and Palestinians, that is not academic.
Yes, I wrote about it and was on the record about the Road Map
when the Road Map was published, that that was the only way to
make it happen, but the theory is that it is the only way to make
any agreement happen. I happened to publish that at the time the
Road Map was about to become public and I just wanted to be sure
this document should try to influence policy on how to make it
work. I would say the same about any agreement, that any agreement
between the Israelis and the Palestinians needs an enhanced third
party role, including the various components of monitoring verification
compliance. The question is: of what? So if a cease-fire is reached,
for example, or any understanding between the Israelis and Palestinians
now that they are negotiating, it will be for the international
community to monitor that, to verify that, to establish a conflict
resolution mechanism so that every time there is a difference
of opinion and the Israelis say the Palestinians were about to
carry out this attack and the Palestinians say the Israelis did
that, you have an arbiter, you have somebody to do something.
I think the logic behind my recommendation is certainly valid
today.
Q28 Mr Illsley: What sort of monitoring
and verification would the Israelis accept, bearing in mind that
they are not too receptive to suggestions about the wall? My colleagues
were in Israel recently and the wall was going ahead despite almost
universal condemnation. What sort of monitoring are the Israelis
likely to accept?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: I am glad you raised
the wall because I do think there is room for negotiation with
the Israelis about the demarcation of the wall. Parts of it have
already gone up, as you know because you visited them. Parts of
it have not yet. There is room to negotiate.
Q29 Mr Illsley: Once you start negotiation
on the route, height and colour of it you are accepting the wall
really, are you not? Is there a danger that the international
community are going to say it is a fait accompli, the thing
is up now, we are just talking about which way it is going to
go?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: If the route is
only along the green line, there is no problem with it. I think
that is what Baroness Symons and the Foreign Secretary and the
Prime Minister articulated quite clearly and their position is
the right one. There is nothing illegal about building a fence
on an internationally recognised border. You would not be accepting
the principle of the fence by negotiating. One has to make it
absolutely clear that the position is that it is illegal to build
on occupied land, but if it is to be built then it should only
be built on the green line.
Q30 Mr Illsley: Should we be putting
more pressure on Israel regarding the fence and the dismantling
of settlements? By the same token, should we be putting more pressure
on the Palestinian Authority to fulfil their obligations? Should
more be coming from our country to influence the situation, bearing
in mind you have already discussed the idea that there is unlikely
to be any American involvement this side of the election?
Ms Bar-Yaacov: I do. Because there
is not going to be much American involvement, hardly any, it is
exactly the right time for this government to take a much more
active and serious role in pressurising both the Israelis and
the Palestinians to meet their obligations. If it is not the Road
Map, then it is the same principle. It is the principle of anything
which will lead to peace and anything which will lead to less
violence. The way to get to less violence will be to try to negotiate
a cease-fire and that is where I do think that this government
can play a very important role.
Chairman: Thank you very much for your
analysis. It was most helpful.
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