Memorandum submitted by the Home Office
CONSEQUENCES OF EU ENLARGEMENT
THE SOUNDNESS
OF THE
GOVERNMENT'S
ASSESSMENTS OF
THE LIKELY
NUMBER OF
IMMIGRANTS TO
THE UK FROM
THE ACCESSION
COUNTRIES
There have been a number of studies considering
likely migration flows resulting from enlargement, and their associated
impact. They have been summarised in reports for the European
Commission in 2000, which were updated in 2003, and the then Department
for Education and Employment in 1999 and supplemented by UCL research
published in June 2003. The studies are one element amongst many
that the Government has considered in developing our policy.
DfEE study
The DfEE study, entitled "Assessment
of possible migration pressure and its labour market impact following
EU enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe", estimated
a range of 55,000 to 278,000 migrants from the new Member States
per year across the whole EU after accession. Based on the current
distribution in the existing Member States, this would imply that
relatively few would come to the UK. At present approximately
80% of nationals from the new Member States in the EU are in Germany
and Austria and around 5% in the UK. On those grounds, the study
suggested that the total flows to the UK could be in the range
of 3,000-14,000 per annum.
European Commission studies
The Commission study in 2000, entitled "The
Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment and Labour Markets
in the EU Member States" predicted slightly higher numbers:
333,000 pa to the EU initially, declining to less than 150,000
pa in a decade, and 15,300 to the UK on accession, declining to
6,700 within a decade.
The revised 2003 report entitled "Potential
Migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU15—an
update" predicted slightly lower numbers—net immigration
to the EU over the first five years of 325,000 pa declining to
60,000 in a decade, and 15,200 pa to the UK in the first five
years, declining to 2,700 in a decade.
UCL research
Research, commissioned by the Home Office and
conducted by University College London, entitled "The
Impact of EU Enlargement on Migration Flows" (published
on 5 June 2003) corroborates the picture set out in the previous
reports.
The UCL findings were derived from (a) a review
of the existing literature on potential migration flows following
the current EU enlargement; (b) an analysis of the impact on migration
to the EU from the accession of Greece, Spain, and Portugal in
the 1980s and; and (c) the authors' own forecasting model.
The research concluded that net migration from
the new Member States to the UK would be in the region of 5,000
to 13,000 per annum up to 2010. These figures cover those coming
to the UK for at least one year. The research recognises that
the figures need to be treated with caution as it is not possible
to predict exactly the numbers that will seek to migrate and that
the numbers may be affected where different policies are pursued
by different Member States.
These conclusions are supported by the experience
of previous accessions. Fears that the accession of Spain, Portugal
and Greece to the EU would lead to mass migrations were unfounded.
In fact, workers returned home as prospects and standards of living
increased as a result of enlargement. When Spain joined the EU
in 1986 there were 109,000 Spanish workers in France; by 1994
this had fallen to just 35,000. Net migration from Greece and
Portugal to the EU was around 10,000 and 7,700 respectively per
annum between 1985 and 1997, whilst there was net migration from
the EU to Spain over the same period. The Government would also
point out that the income per capita of the lowest decile for
certain of the Accession States is, in fact, higher than that
of a number of existing Member States. In addition, when Greece,
Portugal and Spain joined the EU, their GDP per capita
as an average of those of the existing Member States were 50%,
56% and 71%. They have since increased to 71%, 71% and 86% respectively.
In assessing the numbers likely to migrate all these factors need
to be considered.
GOVERNMENT POLICY
IN REGARD
TO SUCH
IMMIGRANTS' ELIGIBILITY
TO WORK
AND RECEIVE
BENEFITS IN
THE UK
Under the terms of the Accession Treaty the
UK, along with all other Member States, is required to allow citizens
of the Accession countries free movement rights from 1 May 2004.
But the Treaty allows current Member States to restrict the freedom
to work for eight of the 10 new Member States for up to seven
years from accession (Cyprus and Malta are exempt).
The Government supports legal migration and
believes migrants make a valuable contribution to the country
and economy. Legal routes for managed migration have been developed
consistently and the UK will benefit from the skills and flexibility
that new migrant workers will bring. At the same time, the Government
is committed to ensuring that people cannot come to the UK simply
to claim benefits.
On 23 February, the Home Secretary announced
the way in which the Government proposes to give effect to these
policies.
Nationals of the eight Accession States will
be welcome to work lawfully in the UK, subject to certain sensible
conditions. We will introduce a worker registration scheme which
will place an obligation on the Accession State nationals to register
with the Home Office as soon as they find work. They will need
to set out where, and for whom, they are working. We will then
issue a certificate to confirm the person's eligibility to work
and reside in the UK. The employer will have a responsibility
to check that the employee has registered. If the employee changes
jobs before they have worked continuously for 12 months they will
need to re-apply for registration.
This procedure will enable us to monitor carefully
the numbers of nationals from the eight Accession States working
in the UK. If, contrary to our expectations, the numbers cause
particular problems in one sector of the economy or across the
board, we will be able to act swiftly and take the necessary measures
to protect our labour market as the Accession Treaty clearly allows.
The procedure will keep bureaucracy to a minimum
while ensuring we have the necessary information to make further
informed decisions on access to the labour market for Accession
State nationals.
The second aspect of our policy is to ensure
that it is not possible for nationals of the eight Accession States
to come to the UK purely to claim benefits. We will require those
seeking work or those who are economically inactive to be self-sufficient.
So it will be possible to come to the UK to look for work but
not possible to draw income-related benefits while doing so.
The legislative basis for these provisions will
require two separate items of secondary legislation. Firstly,
the Home Office will introduce regulations under section 2(2)
of the European Communities Act 1972 and section 2 of the European
Union (Accessions) Act 2003 to set up the worker registration
scheme and to give the right to reside here to work-seekers from
the eight Accession States, but only if they are self-sufficient,
and to registered workers.
Secondly, the Department for Work and Pensions
will amend social security legislation so that only people with
a right to reside in the UK will have access to Income Support,
income-based Job Seeker's Allowance, State Pension Credit, Housing
Benefit and Council Tax Benefit.
COMPARISONS BETWEEN
UK POLICY ON
THIS ISSUE
AND THAT
OF OTHER
EU COUNTRIES
Italy has yet to announce its intentions.
Portugal, Netherlands and Sweden have yet to
announce their precise transitional arrangements. All have indicated
that they are likely to impose some restrictions on access to
the labour market for the first two years. In the case of the
Netherlands this is likely to involve a work permit scheme.
Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Luxembourg and Spain will impose transitional arrangements
for two years (possibly extended to five years) during which time
there will be no access to the labour market.
Denmark will require nationals from the eight
Accession States to obtain a residence and work permit valid for
12 months in order to gain access to the labour market.
Ireland is understood to be considering its
position in the light of the UK decision.
Full details of the information available is
contained in the table at Annex A.
24 February 2004
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