Select Committee on Health Memoranda


3.  NHS Resources and Activity (continued)

  3.9.6  Could the Department update the information given in Tables 3.9.6? [3.9.6]

  1.  An update of Table 3.9.6(a) and 3.9.6(b) is attached.

Table 3.9.6(a)

NUMBERS OF ADMISSIONS AND REMOVALS

England by admission type


Ordinary
Day Case
6 months to:
Admitted
Removed
Admitted
Removed

Sep 88
941,363
72,131
359,213
18,419
Mar 89
938,864
86,256
392,645
23,871
Sep 89
959,516
92,715
420,536
26,784
Mar 90
934,164
109,963
454,266
31,041
Sep 90
910,557
101,572
465,603
36,409
Mar 91
888,291
125,408
496,554
43,510
Sep 91
918,376
115,338
534,998
47,616
Mar 92
938,842
157,759
601,316
67,267
Sep 92
901,687
124,675
638,905
67,044
Mar 93
879,834
139,707
691,201
80,873
Sep 93
829,580
131,708
712,016
85,040
Mar 94
800,632
137,604
768,249
97,207
Sep 94
796,780
136,907
849,379
111,295
Mar 95
804,411
143,757
925,446
129,361
Sep 95
763,117
128,408
943,405
131,830
Mar 96
767,412
139,901
1,026,419
147,724
Sep 96
761,967
132,833
1,056,084
154,879
Mar 97
683,421
117,203
1,047,602
147,084
Sep 97
*
*
*
*
Mar 98
*
*
*
*
Sep 98
687,330
134,836
1,189,074
194,417
Mar 99
682,511
136,383
1,267,592
206,796
Sep 99
662,461
120,560
1,175,154
175,132
Mar 00
628,114
130,814
1,216,451
196,281
Sep 00
632,607
119,418
1,112,734
172,900
Mar 01
608,008
133,715
1,113,989
187,898
Sep 01
598,444
122,255
1,008,152
164,812
Mar 02
612,537
128,485
1,025,052
165,982
Sep 02
615,575
119,585
1,017,050
162,831
Mar 03
624,559
134,841
1,073,797
184,096
Sep 03
626,734
125,352
1,029,740
171,141
Mar 04
638,826
136,551
1,096,344
188,301

Source: KH06 NHS Trust-based figures

*  In the year 1997-98, information was collected annually only.

Table 3.9.6(b)

NUMBER OF SELF DEFERRALS

England by admission type


Number at:
Ordinary
Day Case

Sep 88
40,753
8,433
Mar 89
37,098
8,769
Sep 89
38,224
9,905
Mar 90
36,441
9,735
Sep 90
39,274
11,865
Mar 91
36,115
11,998
Sep 91
33,868
12,469
Mar 92
30,965
13,151
Sep 92
35,992
18,134
Mar 93
35,800
19,095
Sep 93
41,550
24,142
Mar 94
39,189
25,185
Sep 94
43,538
34,946
Mar 95
42,188
37,152
Sep 95
45,004
42,650
Mar 96
45,112
44,908
Sep 96
46,876
49,632
Mar 97
46,022
49,390
Sep 97
*
*
Mar 98
*
*
Sep 98
42,330
52,928
Mar 99
40,098
50,667
Sep 99
38,955
50,398
Mar 00
36,270
44,771
Sep 00
37,014
46,595
Mar 01
35,610
39,864
Sep 01
38,823
42,971
Mar 02
34,614
37,049
Sep 02
35,461
39,192
Mar 03
32,382
36,534
Sep 03
34,018
39,950
Mar 04
29,895
35,980

Source: KH07A NHS Trust-based figures.

*  In the year 1997-98, information was collected annually only.

  3.9.7  Could the Department update the information provided in Tables 3.9.7? [3.9.7]

  1.  An update of Table 3.9.7 is below.

Table 3.9.7

TRENDS IN NON-EMERGENCY AND EMERGENCY ACTIVITY AND WAITING LISTS


England
Year ended:
Non Emergency Activity1, 3
(,000)
Emergency Activity1, 2, 3
(,000)
Waiting Lists5
(,000)

31 March 1997
4,347
3,598
1,158
31 March 1998
4,432
3,729
1,298
31 March 1999
4,849
3,848
1,073
31 March 2000
4,914
3,887
1,037
31 March 2001
5,024
3,943
1,007
31 March 20024
5,060
3,961
1,035
31 March 20034
5,287
4,007
992
31 March 20046
5,454
4,252
906

Source: KH07 NHS Trust based figures, Heatlh Authority Quarterly and Monthly monitoring returns

1.  From 30 June 1998, activity growth is calculated on the basis of first finished consultant episodes.

2.  Elective activity includes waiting list, booked and planned admissions.

3.  Non-emergency and emergency activity are figures for admissions purchased by the NHS (commissioner based). Waiting list figures relate to numbers of patients waiting in NHS trusts (provider based).

4.  Earlier figures are from Health Authorities. With the abolition of Health Authorities, figures for 2001-02 and 2002-03 are based on returns from Trusts and PCTs.

5.  Figures for years prior to 2003-04 have been rebased to allow direct comparison.

6.  Subject to revision.

  3.9.8  Could the Department update the information provided in Table 3.9.8? [3.9.8]

  1.  The information requested is provided in Table 3.9.8.

Table 3.9.8

AVERAGE WAITING TIMES AND NUMBERS FOR FIRST OUTPATIENT APPOINTMENTS



England
Quarter
Median waiting time (weeks)
Outpatients Seen after GP written referral
Total first
attendances
seen

Q3 1993-94
6.01
1,490,439
1,683,116
Q4 1993-94
5.47
1,809,117
2,118,240
Q1 1994-95
5.42
1,603,723
1,966,464
Q2 1994-95
5.69
2,026,726
2,411,193
Q3 1993-95
5.82
2,019,438
2,412,634
Q4 1994-95
5.72
2,003,009
2,569,639
Q1 1995-96
6.01
1,804,040
2,415,895
Q2 1995-96
6.31
1,847,549
2,524,893
Q3 1995-96
6.07
1,904,040
2,566,011
Q4 1995-96
6.02
2,010,249
2,715,403
Q1 1996-97
6.13
1,869,773
2,577,037
Q2 1996-97
6.18
1,893,706
2,635,007
Q3 1996-97
6.05
1,921,446
2,650,803
Q4 1996-97
6.05
1,880,217
2,642,116
Q1 1997-98
6.17
1,904,564
2,689,803
Q2 1997-98
6.37
1,896,977
2,675,056
Q3 1997-98
6.25
1,888,560
2,663,871
Q4 1997-98
6.27
1,919,032
2,732,305
Q1 1998-99
6.49
1,827,140
2,660,499
Q2 1998-99
6.80
1,881,607
2,739,913
Q3 1998-99
6.89
1,894,358
2,732,047
Q4 1998-99
6.99
1,929,607
2,803,960
Q1 1999-00
7.09
1,837,726
2,714,179
Q2 1999-00
7.31
1,907,904
2,798,366
Q3 1999-00
7.32
1,935,766
2,791,712
Q4 1999-00
7.58
2,028,664
2,953,779
Q1 2000-01
7.11
1,884,939
2,795,853
Q2 2000-01
7.45
1,949,273
2,863,533
Q3 2000-01
7.38
2,005,711
2,919,968
Q4 2000-01
7.38
2,098,170
3,050,816
Q1 2001-02
6.89
1,895,469
3,020,570
Q2 2001-02
7.21
1,961,853
3,099,821
Q3 2001-02
7.27
2,047,053
3,209,768
Q4 2001-02
7.57
2,111,633
3,282,456
Q1 2002-03
7.03
1,925,171
3,131,580
Q2 2002-03
7.15
2,017,304
3,183,497
Q3 2002-03
7.22
2,037,703
3,232,958
Q4 2002-03
7.34
2,092,696
3,330,764
Q1 2003-04
6.86
1,934,432
3,287,221
Q2 2003-04
7.05
2,015,385
3,345,338
Q3 2003-04
7.01
2,043,324
3,336,063
Q4 2003-04
7.08
2,093,093
3,461,908

Source: QM08 NHS Trust-based figures, KH09Q and QMOP
(attendances 2001-02 onwards)


  3.9.9.  Could the Department update the information provided in Tables 3.9.9?  [3.9.9]

  1.  Updates to Tables 3.9.9(a) to (d) are below.

Table 3.9.9(a)

ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF NHS GP CONSULTATIONS IN ENGLAND PER YEAR


Year
Total consultations
(to the nearest 1,000,000)

1991
214,000,000
1992
232,000,000
1993
252,000,000
1994
224,000,000
1995
235,000,000
1996
254,000,000
1997
n/a
1998
217,000,000
1999
n/a
2000
220,000,000
2001
217,000,000
2002
241,000,000

Source: The consultation estimates are prepared using General Household Survey (GHS) data and ONS mid year population estimates.


Table 3.9.9(b)

NUMBERS OF REFERRALS FOR FIRST OUTPATIENT APPOINTMENTS


England
Referrals for first OP appointment
Quarter
GP
Other
Total

Q3 1993-94
1,440,814
383,043
1,823,857
Q4 1993-94
1,777,656
344,218
2,121,874
Q1 1994-95
1,819,356
340,342
2,159,698
Q2 1994-95
2,058,342
432,163
2,490,505
Q3 1994-95
1,993,288
424,785
2,418,073
Q4 1994-95
2,125,033
483,637
2,608,670
Q1 1995-96
2,099,602
533,986
2,633,588
Q2 1995-96
2,106,125
612,669
2,718,794
Q3 1995-96
2,104,221
564,377
2,668,598
Q4 1995-96
2,237,690
611,431
2,849,121
Q1 1996-97
2,210,968
671,360
2,882,328
Q2 1996-97
2,186,116
716,100
2,902,216
Q3 1996-97
2,138,071
745,224
2,883,295
Q4 1996-97
2,157,003
744,835
2,901,838
Q1 1997-98
2,328,045
824,639
3,152,684
Q2 1997-98
2,224,842
818,295
3,043,137
Q3 1997-98
2,153,204
837,943
2,991,147
Q4 1997-98
2,285,631
847,327
3,132,958
Q1 1998-99
2,301,253
847,767
3,149,020
Q2 1998-99
2,282,527
861,021
3,143,548
Q3 1998-99
2,239,178
818,292
3,057,470
Q4 1998-99
2,316,827
834,171
3,150,998
Q1 1999-2000
2,317,334
863,030
3,180,364
Q2 1999-2000
2,270,191
872,706
3,142,897
Q3 1999-2000
2,214,415
840,426
3,054,841
Q4 1999-2000
2,339,485
884,742
3,224,227
Q1 2000-01
2,356,768
907,634
3,264,402
Q2 2000-01
2,318,477
931,285
3,249,762
Q3 2000-01
2,287,884
915,406
3,203,290
Q4 2000-01
2,399,641
963,146
3,362,787
Q1 2001-02
2,403,361
998,386
3,401,747
Q2 2001-02
2,358,005
1,004,419
3,362,424
Q3 2001-02
2,322,399
1,001,622
3,324,021
Q4 2001-02
2,386,577
1,012,131
3,398,708
Q1 2002-03
2,415,744
1,060,349
3,476,093
Q2 2002-03
2,453,148
1,080,701
3,533,849
Q3 2002-03
2,362,178
1,052,160
3,414,338
Q4 2002-03
2,424,804
1,106,192
3,530,996
Q1 2003-04
2,425,663
1,139,591
3,565,254
Q2 2003-04
2,448,980
1,162,821
3,611,801
Q3 2003-04
2,401,147
1,137,102
3,538,249
Q4 2003-04
2,526,447
1,204,148
3,730,595

Source: QM08 NHS Trust-based figures


Table 3.9.9(c)

NUMBER OF PLACEMENTS ON WAITING LIST (DECISION TO ADMIT)


England
Quarter
Number of
decisions
to admit

Q1 1991-92
772,512
Q2 1991-92
793,501
Q3 1991-92
820,827
Q4 1991-92
870,775
Q1 1992-93
836,550
Q2 1992-93
858,452
Q3 1992-93
890,264
Q4 1992-93
895,002
Q1 1993-94
853,524
Q2 1993-94
869,617
Q3 1993-94
862,073
Q4 1993-94
916,501
Q1 1994-95
919,679
Q2 1994-95
924,721
Q3 1994-95
937,033
Q4 1994-95
983,974
Q1 1995-96
944,241
Q2 1995-96
967,048
Q3 1995-96
1,005,019
Q4 1995-96
1,052,517
Q1 1996-97
1,031,618
Q2 1996-97
1,034,147
Q3 1996-97
1,033,372
Q4 1996-97
1,012,374
Q1 1997-98
*
Q2 1997-98
*
Q3 1997-98
*
Q4 1997-98
*
Q1 1998-99
1,018,946
Q2 1998-99
1,063,473
Q3 1998-99
1,054,530
Q4 1998-99
1,052,374
Q1 1999-2000
1,033,256
Q2 1999-2000
1,042,575
Q3 1999-2000
1,035,313
Q4 1999-2000
1,047,934
Q1 2000-01
988,441
Q2 2000-01
982,086
Q3 2000-01
972,485
Q4 2000-01
992,918
Q1 2001-02
928,736
Q2 2001-02
934,025
Q3 2001-02
958,877
Q4 2001-02
959,799
Q1 2002-03
917,299
Q2 2002-03
941,534
Q3 2002-03
948,312
Q4 2002-03
971,245
Q1 2003-04
917,649
Q2 2003-04
943,457
Q3 2003-04
954,998
Q4 2003-04
986,640

Source: KH06 NHS Trust-based figures.
*In the year 1997-98, information was collected annually only.


Table 3.9.9(d)

NUMBER OF ATTENDANCES AT FIRST OUTPATIENT APPOINTMENTS


England
Quarter
Outpatients
seen after GP
written referral
Total first
attendances
seen

Q3 1993-94
1,490,439
1,683,116
Q4 1993-94
1,809,117
2,118,240
Q1 1994-95
1,603,723
1,966,464
Q2 1994-95
2,026,726
2,411,193
Q3 1993-95
2,019,438
2,412,634
Q4 1994-95
2,003,009
2,569,639
Q1 1995-96
1,804,040
2,415,895
Q2 1995-96
1,847,549
2,524,893
Q3 1995-96
1,904,040
2,566,011
Q4 1995-96
2,010,249
2,715,403
Q1 1996-97
1,869,773
2,577,037
Q2 1996-97
1,893,706
2,635,007
Q3 1996-97
1,921,446
2,650,803
Q4 1996-97
1,880,217
2,642,116
Q1 1997-98
1,904,564
2,689,803
Q2 1997-98
1,896,977
2,675,056
Q3 1997-98
1,888,560
2,663,871
Q4 1997-98
1,919,032
2,732,305
Q1 1998-99
1,827,140
2,660,499
Q2 1998-99
1,881,607
2,739,913
Q3 1998-99
1,894,358
2,732,047
Q4 1998-99
1,929,607
2,803,960
Q1 1999-2000
1,837,726
2,714,179
Q2 1999-2000
1,907,904
2,798,366
Q3 1999-2000
1,935,766
2,791,712
Q4 1999-2000
2,028,664
2,953,779
Q1 2000-01
1,884,939
2,795,853
Q2 2000-01
1,949,273
2,863,533
Q3 2000-01
2,005,711
2,919,968
Q4 2000-01
2,098,170
3,050,816
Q1 2001-02
1,895,469
3,020,570
Q2 2001-02
1,961,853
3,099,821
Q3 2001-02
2,047,053
3,209,768
Q4 2001-02
2,111,633
3,282,456
Q1 2002-03
1,925,171
3,131,580
Q2 2002-03
2,017,304
3,183,497
Q3 2002-03
2,037,703
3,232,958
Q4 2002-03
2,092,696
3,330,764
Q1 2003-04
1,934,432
3,287,221
Q2 2003-04
2,015,385
3,345,338
Q3 2003-04
2,043,324
3,336,063
Q4 2003-04
2,093,093
3,461,908

Source: QM08 NHS Trust-based figures
QMOP (attendances 2001-02 onwards)


  3.9.10  What additional mechanisms have been put in place since last year's response to deal with waiting lists/time, and what has been the cost of these additional mechanisms? [3.9.10]

  1.  The key national measures taken over the past year (2003-04) to support the NHS in reducing waiting lists and waiting times included:

    —  creating an Integrated National Orthopaedic Strategy, including tailored support to those Trusts facing the highest degree of challenge in reducing waiting times for orthopaedic patients;

    —  establishing a cataracts programme aimed at delivering a maximum waiting time of three months by December 2004;

    —  supporting the NHS in establishing a further 13 NHS Treatment Centres and procuring additional FFCEs through the independent sector;

    —  introducing the new "Choice at Six Months" framework (for implementation from April 2004) to offer faster treatment to those patients currently waiting the longest; and

    —  through the Modernisation Agency, supporting trusts in implementing the Clinically Prioritise and Treat approach, which helps trusts ensure clinical priority while delivering reduced waiting times.

  2.  These policies and programmes have involved a mix of national and local investment. Many of the programmes have had a range of objectives and benefits, and it is not possible to pinpoint the precise expenditure attributable to the objective of reducing waiting times and lists. However, the most significant items of national investment have been:

    —  An additional £73 million to purchase more than 80,000 cataract operations to reduce cataract waiting times to 6 months by March 2004 and 3 months by December 2004—four years ahead of the NHS Plan target.

    —  An additional £96.5 million to help establish NHS TCs and further £40 million allocated through the Access Transformation Fund to support the NHS TC programme and surgical modernisation more generally.

    —  ISTCs—please cross refer to the answers provided under 1.3.2 and 1.3.3

  3.  The success of these measures and those undertaken locally can be judged by the significant reductions in NHS waiting times. Between March 2003 and March 2004, the number of inpatients waiting over nine months fell by over 53,000 and the number waiting over six month by over 109,000. Over the same period, the number of outpatients waiting over 17 weeks fell by over 35,000 and the number waiting over 13 week by over 76,000.

  3.9.11  What progress has the Department made in identifying a better way of measuring NHS productivity? What elements of a productivity measure have so far been selected?

  1.  The following response is an inclusive answer to both question 3.9.11 above, and 3.9.12.

  2.  In the past, DH has measured NHS efficiency by comparing output growth with input growth. Input growth was calculated from programme budget expenditure. Output growth was calculated using the Cost Weighted Activity Index, an index of 12 activity categories weighted in line with expenditure on each activity category. We have moved away from CWAI as:

    —  The index only included 12 activity types and places 60% of the expenditure weight on inpatients and a further 20% of the weight on outpatients which means.

    —  The index gave no credit for more complex case-mix.

    —  Shifting activity to more cost effective settings, such as from inpatients to outpatients, reduced recorded output.

  3.  In addition:

    —  The CWAI had a secondary care focus and failed to include new types of NHS activity.

    —  Quality of care was not considered.

  4.  DH has therefore developed a new NHS Outputs Index. This index is derived mainly using data published in the National Schedule of Reference Costs. In 2002-03 the NHS Output Index 2002-03 covered over 1,700 activity categories. The advantages of the new NHS Outputs Index include:

    —  Being better able to capture changes in case-mix as a result of using more detailed activity data.

    —  The reduction in output resulting from shifting activity from inpatients to outpatients is reduced.

    —  Broadens coverage to include primary care.

    —  New data included for activity of increasing importance—eg NHS Direct.

    —  The amount of activity included in the measure will grow as reference cost coverage expands.

ATKINSON REVIEW OF MEASUREMENT OF GOVERNMENT OUTPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY FOR THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

  5.  The Atkinson Review was established by Len Cook, the National Statistician to improve the measurement of government output and productivity in the National Accounts. It is led by Sir Tony Atkinson, Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford, supported by a team based in the Office for National Statistics. The Review team published an interim report in July 2004 with final conclusions due in January 2005.

  6.  We have been working closely with the team and the ONS to develop better measures for health and social care output and have agreed action plan between us. The DH have collaborated with the Atkinson Review on:

    —  Improving the measurement of NHS outputs.

    —  Improving the measurement of NHS inputs expenditure.

    —  Improving the measurement of the NHS input price deflator.

    —  Longer term research into Measuring NHS Outputs and Productivity.

  7.  As a result of our co-operation with the Atkinson Review, a calendar year version of the NHS Outputs Index was adopted by ONS as the basis of measuring health outputs in National Accounts, with revised figures being published in June 2004. We will continue to work with the Atkinson Review team at ONS as part of our work on Outputs, Productivity and Value for Money.

OUTPUTS, PRODUCTIVITY AND VALUE FOR MONEY

  8.  Productivity and Value for Money Measures compare the rate of growth for expenditure with the rate of growth of output. For the NHS value for money measure, we propose to calculate expenditure based on the activity items included in the NHS Outputs Index. In 2002-03 this measure would have covered around three quarters of NHS expenditure, and should increase in line with the increase in coverage of reference costs.

  9.  To generate a value for money measure, we have to adjust expenditure for:

    —  Price Deflators.

    —  Expenditure on quality.

  10.  DH is currently working with the Atkinson Review team at ONS to determine the appropriate price deflator for NHS value-for-money and productivity measures. We have to apply price deflators to enable us to consider the volume of inputs required to deliver NHS activity.

  3.9.12  For a number of years, Cost Weighted Efficiency Index (CWEI) has been used to assess NHS efficiency growth. This measure has become inadequate as a measure of efficiency due to changes in recent years in the way health care is delivered. New development to replace the CWEI was mentioned in the 2003 Departmental Report as well as this year's. Could the Department provide an update on this?

  1.  See response to question 3.9.11.  

3.10  Payment by results

  3.10.1  How much NHS expenditure was paid to Trusts via HRG tariff based payments in 2003-04? How much activity did it purchase? What are expected expenditure and activity under "payment by results" in 2004-05 and 2005-06?

  1.  The table below shows expenditure and activity covered by the national tariff being introduced as part of Payment by Results. Expenditure relates to the year in which the activity took place (2003-04 expenditure is in 2003-04 prices).


Year
£ million
Activity—spells

2003-04
61
32,000
2004-05
3,300
2,200,000
2005-06
21,100
13,500,000





 
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