Select Committee on International Development Written Evidence


10. Memorandum submitted by Christian Aid

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

Key recommendations

    —  Comprehensive HIV-prevention programmes should remain the top priority, as the most effective long-term way of reducing orphan numbers.

    —  Donors, including the UK government, should urgently ensure US$10 billion is available globally for HIV work by 2005 and US$15 billion by 2007. (In 2003, less than US$5 billion was available.) This includes at least US$900 million for support for orphans and vulnerable children. Increases in HIV funding must not reduce funds for other development work.

    —  NGOs and national governments should support community-based programmes for supporting orphans and other vulnerable children.

Recommendations to prevent a worsening orphan crisis

    —  Comprehensive HIV-prevention programmes should remain the top priority, as the most effective long-term way of reducing orphan numbers.

    —  Anti-retroviral treatment extends the lives of parents. If the global target of treating three million people by the end of 2005 becomes reality, the future orphan crisis will be less severe.

    —  Donors, including the UK government, should urgently ensure US$10 billion is available globally for HIV work by 2005 and US$15 billion by 2007. (In 2003, less than US$5 billion was available.) This includes at least US$900 million for support for orphans and vulnerable children. Increases in HIV funding must not reduce funds available for other development work.

    —  The UK government should contribute £750 million a year to HIV work (without reducing other development budgets), as part of pledging 0.7% of GNP in aid, by 2008.

    —  National governments and international economic advisers should consider the likely economic impact of the HIV epidemic, before deciding on macroeconomic policies.

Recommendations for supporting orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs)

General recommendations

  Programmes should:

    —  consider children's emotional, as well as material, needs;

    —  facilitate and support local priorities, knowledge and initiatives;

    —  include children and young people as active participants in their design, and facilitate their support for each other;

    —  consider the different needs of boys and girls, women and men;

    —   consider the needs of teenagers, as well as small children;

    —  integrate prevention, care and OVC-support activities;

    —  address the stigma caused by HIV;

    —  Fund operational research on orphan care and support;

    —  target all vulnerable children, rather than only "AIDS orphans";

    —  care for OVCs as far as possible in the community rather than in orphanages.

Support for families and communities

  NGOs, national and regional governments and international agencies should:

    —  make extra income available for extended families supporting OVCs;

    —  facilitate and fund income-generation activities;

    —  provide nutritional support directly to vulnerable children;

    —  give OVCs (particularly those in child-headed households) practical help to access available support such as Government grants;

    —  prioritise life and survival skills for young people, including HIV prevention;

    —  prioritise counselling for HIV-positive parents, as well as vulnerable children and teenagers;

    —  encourage "succession planning", eg, will-making;

    —  support community programmes, which should build on existing community initiatives, build awareness of HIV, facilitate community discussion on future strategies and improve access to income-generating activities.

Support by national Governments

  National governments should:

    —  have a national strategy on OVCs, if there is a generalised HIV epidemic;

    —  use the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child as a framework for the strategy;

    —  encourage birth registration to facilitate access to services;

    —  facilitate access to education in its broader sense for OVCs (including skills training), by abolishing fees or supporting costs, providing free school meals, training teachers to spot abuse and provide counselling, using the school setting for other services;

    —  facilitate access to healthcare and nutrition, by abolishing fees or supporting costs for OVCs, child-feeding centres for vulnerable under-fives, home-based care teams to identify OVC needs;

    —  protect the most vulnerable children through legal protection, support for child-headed households and street children, and protection from violence and abuse.

INTRODUCTION

  1.1  Christian Aid is the official development agency of 40 British and Irish churches, working for social justice and poverty eradication with local partner organisations (of all faiths and none) in more than 50 countries.

  1.2  Christian Aid has worked with partner organisations on HIV prevention, care and support of those affected for over a decade. For the last few years it has considered the HIV epidemic to be so important that it has made work on HIV one of its two organisational priorities. Christian Aid works with over 100 partner organisations on HIV, and over 20 of these state that support of orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs) is one of their aims. Christian Aid has also recently carried out qualitative research on HIV and poverty in western Kenya. In this evidence we draw on both our programme experience and on the research. The evidence is in two parts—first, we discuss ways of preventing the orphan crisis deepening, in the context of poverty; second, we outline some policy recommendations for programmes, based on the experience of our partner organisations.

PREVENTING THE ORPHAN CRISIS FROM DEEPENING

2.   The extent of the HIV epidemic and the orphan issue

  2.1  The global HIV and orphan situation will be familiar to the Committee, and it is only summarised briefly here. Forty million people are now HIV-positive worldwide. Every day, nearly 8,500 people die of AIDS and 14,000 people become newly infected with HIV. And every day more than 6,000 children are left without one or both parents. A third of them are under five years old.[135]

  2.2  HIV affects every continent, but the orphan problem becomes visible only once it is at an advanced stage in a continent. This is already happening in Africa. In Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, more than one in five children will be orphaned by 2010, and for most of these the reason will be AIDS.

3.   Poverty and the economic impact of HIV

Poverty and orphans at the household and community level

  3.1  HIV is fuelled by poverty. The effects of HIV, compared with other epidemics, are especially pronounced because it disproportionately affects the adult wage-earners. HIV may tip some households into poverty, and where a household is already poor the impact may be devastating. This was demonstrated by a recent Christian Aid case study conducted in the sugar belt of western Kenya[136], where HIV prevalence is over 20%. Caring for orphans is one of the issues that is much more difficult in poor areas.

  3.2  It is a commonly held belief that the social safety net of the extended family in Africa will bear the brunt of the problem of orphan care, and, indeed, extended families are already caring for 90% of all orphans. [137]However, the Kenyan study, carried out in a poor area, with a high prevalence of HIV, showed that this traditional community care is becoming impossibly stretched. Interviewees reported that OVCs are no longer receiving their previous level of care. Child-headed households and street children have increased, and these children can be vulnerable to exploitation, violence and abuse. This in itself makes them vulnerable to HIV infection. One interviewee said:

    "The children lack proper care and parental guidance, so they make their own choices. They can end up in the wrong company and with the wrong people. People take advantage of them. Because they are poor they will do anything for food. They are at risk."

  3.3  Interviewees suggested several reasons for the signs of breakdown in the care of OVCs:

    —  extended family members have lost income, as a result of the recent fall in sugar prices following liberalisation, so have less financial capacity to take in orphans;

    —  the sheer numbers of orphans have increased;

    —  extended family members may be reluctant to care for orphans where the parents are known to have died of an HIV-related illness, because of fear that the children may also be HIV-positive, and because of stigma.

Orphans and the economic impact of HIV at the national level

  3.4  Not only are the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic some of the world's poorest, but as a result of HIV they become vulnerable to further poverty. Some early studies on the impact of HIV on economic growth concluded that the impact would be negative but relatively small, for example growth would be 0.5% lower each year. More recent studies have predicted a somewhat greater impact, for example that growth would be 1 to 2% lower each year. Some of the latter, more pessimistic studies took into account the "drag" by HIV on gradual accumulation of knowledge and skills.

  3.5  For example, in 2003 an important World Bank study looked at the long-term economic impact of HIV in South Africa. One of its arguments was that the orphan situation is crucial in the overall economic impact of the epidemic. Because HIV affects mainly young adults, it weakens the mechanisms by which knowledge and abilities are transmitted from one generation to the next, and increasing numbers of children are being left without "parents to love, raise and educate them." However, the effects of this are only felt after a long time lag. It concluded that, in the absence of HIV, there would be modest growth in South Africa, with universal education obtained over three generations. If nothing further were done to combat the epidemic, though, "a complete economic collapse will occur within three generations." With optimal spending on response to HIV, a slow rate of growth was maintained.[138]

4.   Recommendations to prevent a worsening orphan crisis

  4.1  Christian Aid believes that the problem of orphans and vulnerable children, related to HIV, is serious: that the impact is much greater on poor communities than on better-off ones, and that in the longer term the number of orphaned children will have contributed to lower overall growth and development. In Christian Aid's view, it is not possible to tackle HIV in the long term without tackling poverty, so all our policy recommendations (for example on trade) are also relevant to HIV. Here we propose some specific policies to prevent the orphan crisis becoming even more serious.

HIV prevention

  4.2  Comprehensive HIV-prevention programmes, in particular those aimed at young people, should remain the top priority and mainstay of HIV work, to prevent the orphan crisis spiralling into the future. We should not forget that many of tomorrow's potential orphans have not yet been born. Access to family planning (which in any case provides an opportunity for HIV prevention) is also important to prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Anti-retroviral treatment

  4.3  Anti-retroviral treatment, as part of comprehensive care programmes, extends the lives of parents. If the global target of treating three million people by the end of 2005 becomes reality, the future orphan crisis will be less severe.

Funding for HIV programmes

  4.4  Donors, including the UK government, should urgently ensure that adequate funding is made available for HIV prevention, care and treatment programmes. The longer the delay, the more expensive—in financial, social and human terms—the impact will be.

  4.5  In 2003, less than US$5 billion was available globally for HIV work. UNAIDS has estimated that US$10 billion annually is needed by 2005, and US$15 billion annually by 2007, for HIV programmes in developing countries (including prevention, care, treatment and impact mitigation). This estimate covers a minimum response, within current infrastructure, which would not even approach universal coverage. It is likely to be an underestimate of the cost of treating three million people.[139]

  4.6  Whilst the UK government has greatly increased its funding for HIV programmes (to around £300 million in 2002-03), it should show international leadership by pledging further resources. Christian Aid suggests £750 million per year as a goal, which would follow Kofi Annan's 2001 call for a five-fold increase in HIV funding. This should accompany a pledge to reach 0.7% of GNI in aid, by 2008. The funding for HIV should not be taken from other programmes.

Economic impact of HIV

  4.7  National governments and international economic advisers (such as the IMF and World Bank) should consider the likely economic impact of the HIV epidemic in shaping macroeconomic policies. The impact of HIV may affect economic policy making in several ways. For example, economic policy-makers should realistically analyse and allow for the likely economic impact of HIV over the medium term. In many countries the worst-case scenarios are still preventable. This analysis in itself may exert extra pressure to ensure that maximum effort and resources are allocated to HIV programmes, and to related areas, such as building health and education systems.

  4.8  Where economic policies could have the potential to create an environment favouring HIV spread (for example, by creating sudden massive unemployment in an area where HIV is already prevalent, or by dramatically increasing income inequality in an area), an ex-ante Poverty and Social Impact Assessment (assessment done before the policy is decided), should be carried out and the policy reconsidered in the light of the findings.

PROGRAMMES TO SUPPORT ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN

5.   Existing policies

  5.1  The 2001 UNGASS Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS 2001 stated in its Paragraph 65 that the international community would: "By 2003, develop and by 2005 implement national policies and strategies to build and strengthen governmental, family and community capacities to provide a supportive environment for orphans and girls and boys infected and affected by HIV/AIDS, including by providing appropriate counselling and psychosocial support, ensuring their enrolment in school, and access to shelter, good nutrition and health and social services on an equal basis with other children; and protect orphans and vulnerable children from all forms of abuse, violence, exploitation, discrimination, trafficking and loss of inheritance."

  5.2  In its Platform for Action on HIV/AIDS, published in December 2003, the UK government published no specific policy on OVCs. This omission should be corrected in the forthcoming DFID Strategy on HIV/AIDS.

6.   Financing for OVC care and support

  6.1  UNAIDS estimates that US$900 million every year is needed to care for orphans and vulnerable children, in countries where HIV prevalence is more than 1%. (This is part of the overall funding estimate mentioned above.)[140] This is a minimal estimate as it covers only maternal orphans and only those under 15 years old. Moreover, its coverage targets are low. This estimate would pay for 20% of orphans to be supported by their communities with government assistance, 20% to receive payments for school fees, and 5% to be cared for in orphanages.[141]

  6.2  Many of the programme recommendations below will be unaffordable for many governments, but nevertheless we make them because, as the World Bank has shown, the cost of failing to implement them will be much greater. Moreover, whilst the necessary resources are not available to many governments in the worst affected countries, the sums are easily affordable by donors.

7.   Programme priorities for support of orphans and vulnerable children

7.1  General points

  7.1.1  From its programme experience, Christian Aid believes that programmes on the support of OVCs, and funding criteria, should take account of the following points. Many of them are self-evident, but they are ignored surprisingly frequently.

  7.1.2  The following points apply to all development programmes aimed at supporting children:

    —  they should consider children's emotional, as well as material, needs;

    —  rather than applying blueprints, programmes should facilitate and support local priorities, knowledge and initiatives;

    —  programmes should include children and young people as active participants in their design;

    —  programmes should facilitate young people's support for each other;

    —  programmes should consider the different needs of boys and girls, women and men;

    —  teenagers have needs, as well as small children.

  7.1.3  The following points apply particularly to HIV:

    —  prevention, care and OVC-support activities can all complement each other and should be integrated. While in this submission we have picked out particular aspects of Christian Aid partners' work, most of the partners in fact address several aspects of the epidemic;

    —  successful programmes supporting OVC need to address stigma and discrimination caused by HIV.

  7.1.4  As the orphan crisis, although predictable for at least a decade, has only become apparent over the last few years, research in this area is inadequate. Work must include operational research—to define better the most successful approaches for the future. This must be funded.

Supporting "AIDS orphans" or supporting all vulnerable children?

  7.1.5  In general, programmers should focus on all vulnerable children, rather than solely on those orphaned by AIDS. While children orphaned by AIDS will often be among the most vulnerable, criteria for accessing support should usually be measures of general vulnerability, rather than being AIDS-specific. If support is available only for children who have been orphaned by AIDS, other orphans and children made vulnerable for other reasons may become neglected. Moreover children's needs start before the death of a parent, especially when the children are themselves carers.

  7.1.6  In some circumstances, however, a particular focus on children orphaned by HIV may be appropriate. For example, Christian Aid partner, AMO Congo, wants an organisational identity focused entirely on HIV, as it is the only HIV-support organisation in the regions where it works, and believes it is important to be clear that its work is about HIV, in order to fight stigma.

Community care versus institutional care

  7.1.7  It is generally accepted that community care for orphaned children is far preferable to care in orphanages. In institutions, children may not get the chance to develop long-term relationships with one or two trusted adults (crucial for emotional security), their emotional and recreational needs may be neglected, they may suffer stigmatisation and abuse because of their association with AIDS (this can also happen in the community), and they may find it difficult to reintegrate into the community as adults. Sexual abuse in institutions is widespread in many countries. Moreover, the availability of institutional care may undermine communities' willingness to care for their orphaned children. And finally, institutional care is expensive—six to 100 times more costly than fostering.

  7.1.8  Where extended family care is not on offer for a child, there are other options, for example:

    —  formal or informal fostering and adoption;

    —  placing adults in orphaned children's homes—ie "surrogate parents"

    —  "cluster foster care"—surrogate parents looking after a number of orphans from different homes, in their community.

  Wherever possible, children will do best if they remain close to their own communities, and if they are with their siblings.

  7.1.9  For example, Christian Aid partner, Maryknoll Seedling of Hope in Cambodia, houses orphans in group-homes. Maryknoll provides care and support for people living with HIV and for 300 orphans. Most of these live with their extended families, but 28 are in foster families and 50 in group-homes. These are homes that six to eight people share, either single adults or families, all of whom are infected or affected by HIV. Maryknoll provides funds for food and visits regularly, but the occupants look after themselves and each other. This kind of care is particularly important in Cambodia, where, since the genocide of the 1970s, the traditional, extended family structure is very weak.

7.2  Support for families caring for OVCs

  7.2.1  Either NGOs or governments may implement programmes supporting families. There are a variety of ways of doing this. They should:

    —  make extra income available for extended families supporting OVCs, for example through child-support grants. In countries that have an inadequate tax base to do this, donors should provide backing;

    —  facilitate and fund income-generation activities, for example starter grants to enable people to start a small business, skills training, or micro-credit schemes (following best-practice guidelines);

    —  provide nutritional support directly to vulnerable children;

    —  give OVCs (particularly those in child-headed households) practical help to access available support such as Government grants;

    —  prioritise life-skills for young people, including HIV prevention;

    —  prioritise counselling for HIV-positive parents, and vulnerable children and teenagers;

    —  encourage "succession planning"—HIV-positive parents should be encouraged to make wills, identify guardians, pass on information to their children and make memory books.

YWAM—the importance of supporting families

  7.2.2  Christian Aid partner, Youth With A Mission (YWAM) runs an integrated HIV-prevention, care and support programme in Kangulumira, Uganda, where volunteers work with communities to prioritise their needs. YWAM has found that orphan care in extended families puts traditional family structures under pressure. Families tend to favour their own children first and can often resent having to use their limited resources to pay for food, clothing, medical bills and schooling for other children. This resentment can manifest itself by carers taking advantage of the OVCs, for example, using them to undertake a disproportionate amount of work, not allowing them to go to school, or even abusing them. Yet, YWAM believes that the problems created by leaving orphans without a family environment are worse. So they think that the best option is to find homes for the OVCs and to provide the support needed for the care-providers and the extended family, in order that the child is not seen as an extra burden.

AMO Congo—comprehensive support for families

  7.2.3  AMO Congo is based in three regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. They support families, helping them look after 5,000 orphaned children. They do this by providing both short-term financial assistance to meet immediate nutritional and medical needs and, for the most destitute families, finding them a home and paying the rent. After some time, they provide training and start-up costs for income-generating ventures, such as food-selling. They provide emotional support to families, and at the same time discuss HIV, helping to prevent it spreading further and reducing stigma. They also pay school fees, although they prefer school fees to be paid from the income that the families have earned.

  7.2.4  AMO extend their reach by supporting a network of volunteers who regularly visit families that look after orphans, to provide support and also to monitor the well-being of the children. The volunteers themselves report that their attitudes have changed since starting the work—previously they would not have discussed sexual health with their children; now they think it is essential to do so.

  7.2.5  One person who has benefited is Yumba Kamwanya. Her husband died of an HIV-related illness, and her family abandoned her when they found out the cause of his death. She is also living with HIV, and was very sick when she was found, destitute, by an AMO volunteer. She has seven children, six of whom are 16 or younger. ("Orphan" is defined as a child who has lost either parent or both in this context.) Four of them had left home to fend for themselves on the streets. AMO Congo paid for Yumba to receive medical care, found her children and brought them back. They gave her and her family food and clothing to get them back on their feet. Staff and volunteers came to visit her regularly, and AMO started her off with a small business. She is now selling flour and oil outside her home and using the money to buy food for her family, and more food items to sell. She is finally able to send one of her children to primary school. She is the first person in Lubumbashi to have openly talked about her HIV status, and has now given her testimony twice on television.

YWAM and Maryknoll—planning for the future

  7.2.6  YWAM (as described above) encourages village members to prepare for the future of their family, so that if the parents die the children will be looked after. Previously, people were reluctant to make wills as they thought it would bring on death, but now the number of people making wills is increasing.

  7.2.7  Maryknoll in Cambodia encourages HIV-positive parents to make memory books. These are made in a context where many people are too poor to own anything more than the basic necessities of survival, so there is a risk of leaving nothing personal at death. The books contain pictures and drawings, personal writings and decorations—such as dried flowers and grains of sand—anything that will evoke a memory. The intention is that the children will relate to these books, (even if they were too young when their parents died to remember them directly), and use them as an inspiration to create a future. At the same time, the process of making the books helps parents prepare themselves for dying.

7.3  Support at community level

  7.3.1  As with HIV prevention and care, support for OVCs can be very effective at community level. As with family-level support, this work can be facilitated by NGOs or by the government. Faith-based organisations have a particular role to play, particularly in Africa, where the Church forms one of the furthest-reaching community networks.

  7.3.2  In general, programmes should:

    —  build on existing community initiatives;

    —  facilitate community discussion on future strategies (to raise awareness, identify priorities and organise more activity); and

    —  improve access to income-generating activities (particularly for women and caregivers).

  Where highly affected communities do not prioritise HIV, programmes should try to build awareness and facilitate discussion.

  7.3.3  A community may prioritise an infinite variety of activities. Community groups may:

    —  visit households with OVCs to provide practical and emotional help;

    —  encourage parents and guardians to send OVCs to school;

    —  mobilise and distribute villagers' food donations;

    —  pool funds to pay for OVCs' schooling and healthcare ("resource pooling");

    —  organise activities designed to earn a living;

    —  run community schools and neighbourhood day-care points, staffed by volunteers;

    —  support child-headed households, encouraging succession planning;

    —  engage local leaders (eg faith leaders, teachers) to spot abuse and liaise with the police;

    —  organise peer support groups for OVCs and carers; or

    —  do something else that the community feels is important.

Kondwa Day Centre for Orphans, Zambia

  7.3.4  Kondwa means "be happy". Kondwa Day Centre is situated in Ng'Ombe, one of the poorest compounds in Lusaka. It was born out of a need, identified by the Ng'Ombe Community Home Based Care Project, for care and support for orphans, and thus also for time for their guardians to work. The centre cares for 60 orphans during the day, aged between three and seven, and also continues to support 70 "graduate" older children. The children play and learn in a caring environment, and have two meals a day. Second-hand clothes and help with medical expenses are available. The centre supports older children with the transition to school, and helps with costs. They also promote activities for guardians that will help them earn a living.

Thandanani Children's Foundation, South Africa—child-headed households

  7.3.5  Thandanani takes a participative approach to helping communities work with children affected by HIV, trying to involve children in voicing their opinions on issues affecting them. One of their current aims is to extend their work with child-headed households. They are carrying out a consultation exercise to identify the needs prioritised by the heads of the households, and by children who are likely to be heading households in the near future. Thandanani envisage that it may facilitate the following types of services, which are in fact similar to services for vulnerable children in families:

    —  weekly visits by a community volunteer;

    —  monthly food parcels;

    —  bursary schemes to get and keep younger children in school, and stationery packs;

    —  skills training for teenagers, such as in hairdressing or mechanics;

    —  holiday clubs and outings.

7.4  Support by governments at national level

  7.4.1  The following general recommendations are made to national governments:

    —  following the UNGASS declaration, all countries with generalised HIV epidemics should have a national strategy on OVCs (at the end of 2003, only six out of 40 did);

    —  use the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child as a framework for the strategy;

    —  create a supportive environment for community-led initiatives, including funding;

    —   provide income support and income generation for families caring for OVCs.

Access to services for OVCs

  7.4.2  National governments need to pay particular attention to this. NGOs may also carry out some of the actions below. The aim is to create parity for OVCs with other children—on education and healthcare, including immunisation, and nutrition. One need is to encourage birth registration (and make it free) to facilitate later service access.

Access to education

  7.4.3  Governments should:

    —  think of education as being broader than schooling. Skills training, and informal passing on of skills, are also education. Education needs to be flexible for many orphans and vulnerable children, who may also have caring or work responsibilities;

    —  preferably, abolish primary school fees (ensuring plans are in place to deal with the resulting increased demand) and reduce hidden costs, eg uniform, shoes, books;

    —  where this is not possible, give direct payments for school costs to families with orphans or other vulnerable children, or direct grants to schools that address the needs of children affected by HIV;

    —  where possible, provide free school meals, reducing the proportion of children who drop out of school;

    —  train teachers to support vulnerable children emotionally, and to look out for abuse and depression. Schools provide an opportunity for counselling and life-skills training;

    —  support educational and training programmes for street children and for other older OVCs that can be combined with activities designed to help them earn a living, as well as counselling and support activities.

Access to healthcare and nutrition

  7.4.4  Governments should:

    —  abolish fees for healthcare;

    —  where this is not possible, give direct payments for healthcare costs to families with orphans or other vulnerable children;

    —  provide nutritional support for under-fives, which is best done through child-feeding centres, day-care centres or schools, providing food directly to vulnerable children;

    —  home-based care teams should look out for OVCs' health needs, which may be neglected.

Government protection for the most vulnerable children

  7.4.5  Governments should:

    —  revise laws to reflect international standards and address challenges posed by HIV—including discrimination, foster care, inheritance rights, abuse and child labour. They should then implement and enforce these laws;

    —  support child-headed households and street children;

    —  train professionals, such as judges and the police, about the needs of street children, to help overcome discrimination and protect them from violence, abuse and HIV, and set up systems to help them.

March 2004





135   Speech to the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on Children. New York, 10 May 2002, Peter Piot, UNAIDS Executive Director. Back

136   This case study was facilitated by Christian Aid partner CCFMC. CCFMC are based in Kisumu, western Kenya. Their work includes support for orphans and other children made vulnerable by HIV, and their families. Back

137   UNICEF press release, 26 November 2003. Back

138   Bell et al, The Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDs: Theory and Application to South Africa, 2003. http://www1.worldbank.org/hiv_ids/docs/BeDeGe_BP_total2.pdf Back

139   UNAIDS 2002, Financial resources for HIV/AIDS programmes in low- and middle-income countries over the next five years, briefing for UNAIDS Programme Co-ordinating Board, 13th Meeting, Lisbon, December 2002. Back

140   The estimate was in 2003 revised upwards to $1 billion. Back

141   UNAIDS 2002. Back


 
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