Targets, progress, corrective
action and attribution
63. DFID's Public Service Agreement, the latest for
2005-08, sets clear objectives to be met, based on the internationally
agreed Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).[83]
Progress against the MDGs has been patchy. Some targets may be
reached in aggregate, thanks to progress in India and China, but
missed in most countries, especially in Africa. While some targets
are on course to be achieved, progress against others has been
slow, requiring concerted action if they are to have any chance
of being met by 2015.[84]
64. The Departmental Report for 2004 provides information
on the progress against the targets set out in DFID's 2003-2006
Public Service Agreement. While the Department is on course to
meet several important targets, including reducing the number
of people living in poverty in South Asia, achieving a tuberculosis
cure treatment rate greater than 85 per cent in Asia, and increasing
the proportion of DFID's bilateral programme which goes to low-income
countries, progress has slipped in some key areas and is judged
"too early to say" in others. The Departmental Report
identifies areas where considerable progress is needed but does
not provide adequate information on how underperformance is being
addressed. This makes it difficult to assess whether the right
steps are being taken to improve performance and whether the lack
of progress can be reversed.
65. Maternal mortality is one area where significant
progress is needed for the target to be met. Progress in the 16
key countries in Africa has slipped and patchy data for the target
in Asia make it difficult to assess any improvements. While the
Department acknowledges that "considerable progress is still
needed in all PSA countries",[85]
further information on the steps DFID could take to increase the
likelihood of meeting the target are not detailed. This makes
it difficult for the Committee to assess whether an improvement
is likely to be made. Lack of progress against the target in Africa
is attributed to the poor functioning of health systems and the
lack of appropriately skilled staff. While these issues are not
wholly within DFID's control, they will be central to the achievement
of several of DFID's targets. It would, therefore, be helpful
to have details on how the situation can be addressed.
66. DFID's target to reduce under-five mortality
rates for girls and boys in the 16 key countries in Africa has
slipped and is now at approximately the same level it was in 1990.
While we appreciate the caveat that these figures need to be interpreted
within the context of HIV/AIDS, the lack of progress is worrying.
The Department acknowledges that "a step-change will be needed
if the target is to be met" but again, few details are provided
on what such a step change may entail. In written correspondence
with the Department, the Committee enquired whether the Department
has an early warning system to identify cases where progress towards
targets is slipping. We were told that "twice-yearly performance
assessments using international data sources, divisional-level
reporting and in-country programme monitoring together form an
effective early-warning system for identifying actual or potential
slippage against Public Service Agreement Targets 1 and 2".[86]
While it is encouraging that an early-warning system exists, it
is not clear how this is translated into actions designed to address
a lack of, or slippage in, progress. Where DFID is failing
to meet its PSA targets, or where future slippage is anticipated,
the Departmental Report should specify what actions are being
taken—by DFID, and by others—to attempt to get progress
back on track.
67. DFID's ability to make progress towards the MDGs
is often limited by circumstances that are outside of its control.
For example, the target for "improved effectiveness of the
UK contribution to conflict prevention and management as demonstrated
by a reduction in the number of people whose lives are affected
by violent conflict and a reduction in potential sources of future
conflict where the UK can make a significant contribution",[87]
will be affected by a wide range of factors that are not within
DFID's remit. There is no easy answer to this problem of attribution,
but as we and others have previously noted, this raises the question
about the nature of DFID's targets and whether they should refer
to outcomes over which DFID has more control.[88]
At the very least, DFID must ensure that every effort is made
to be clear about what DFID has done, and what outcomes DFID's
work has led to.
Data and performance management
68. Patchy data, in terms of both quantity and quality,
hampers the measurement of progress against several targets. For
example, the target to reduce the prevalence rates of HIV infection
in vulnerable groups in Asia below 5 per cent cannot be assessed
because "there are currently no reliable data on national
rates for vulnerable groups in the PSA countries to adequately
assess progress towards this target".[89]
Progress against other targets is having to be reassessed in the
light of improvements in data. The target to achieve "an
increase in gross primary school enrolment from 95 per cent to
100 per cent" in Asia slipped from being "on course"
in the 2003 Autumn Performance Report to being "too early
to say" in the Departmental Report 2004. The Department told
us that "improvements in the quality of data have required
a re-evaluation of progress towards this target".[90]
There is a risk that poor data and the inability to measure performance
could invalidate some targets. DFID acknowledges the difficulties
this causes for the setting and monitoring of targets but does
not believe that this invalidates the targets themselves.[91]
The Department believes that "despite the problems, we should
be able to detect whether we are achieving the large-scale shifts
in the various measures of poverty required to achieve the 2015
goals".[92]
69. DFID has worked with a range of international
bodies, including the UN, International Financial Institutions
and the OECD, to improve international statistics and support
the development of statistics worldwide. It has also worked bilaterally
with a number of developing and transition governments to support
the development of statistical systems. We appreciate the difficulties
involved in developing country data and welcome DFID's work to
improve statistics in this area. This work is very important and
must remain a focus of DFID's attention. Reliable data is essential
if realistic and meaningful targets are going to be set and progress
is to be monitored.
70. The Departmental Report uses a "traffic
light" system to assess the progress made against individual
targets. A green mark indicates that the Department is on course
to meet the target; amber indicates that progress can't be judged;
and red signifies slippage in progress towards a target. A grey
mark is used for targets where progress cannot be measured due
to unavailable data. This provides a useful visual assessment
of DFID's performance, but it can be difficult to judge whether
DFID's assessment is right. Little information is provided about
the data which inform such assessments, or about whether such
assessments are externally-validated.
71. For example, the target to increase the ratio
of girls to boys enrolled in primary school in 4 key countries
in Asia has an amber mark, indicating that the Department cannot
make a judgement on progress either because performance has not
changed in either direction or because progress may have been
made in some countries and not others. However, the likely, or
anticipated, progress against the target is judged as being "on
course". It is not clear from the commentary accompanying
the target, how this conclusion has been reached. While we
welcome the use of the traffic light system, its usefulness could
be improved by providing more information on how progress, particularly
likely or anticipated, has been assessed. More information should
also be provided on the action DFID is taking to address targets
where progress has slipped, along with an indication of how long
it might take to get progress back on track.
83 For further information
about DFID's Public Service Agreement see http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/psa/index.asp;
for further information on the Millennium Development Goals see
http://www.developmentgoals.com Back
84
Information about progress towards meeting the MDGs is available
at http://www.undp.org/mdg/ Back
85
Department for International Development, Departmental Report
2004, Cm 6214, page 186-see footnote 3 for web-site. Back
86
Ev 26 Back
87
Department for International Development, Departmental Report
2004, Cm 6214, page 184-see footnote 3 for web-site. Back
88
International Development Committee, Sixth report of Session 2001-02,
Department for International Development Departmental Report
2002, HC 964, see footnote 4 for web-site; National Audit
Office, Department for International Development: Performance
Management-helping to reduce poverty, HC 739. Available at
http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/nao_reports/01-02/0102739.pdf Back
89
Department for International Development, Departmental Report
2004, Cm 6214, page 186-see footnote 3 for web-site. Back
90
Ev 28 Back
91
Ibid. Back
92
Ibid. Back
