Memorandum submitted by the Chartered
Institute of Housing in Northern Ireland
THE RISING
DEMAND FOR
SOCIAL HOUSING
The Northern Ireland Housing Market—Review
and Perspectives 2004-07, produced by the Northern Ireland
Housing Executive annually, accurately records the level of housing
demand for social housing in Northern Ireland.
The waiting list for Social Housing remained
fairly static between 1993 and 2000 at 23,000 applicants. In November
2000 a new Common Selection Scheme was introduced for both Housing
Executive and housing associations which resulted in a slight
reduction in the number on the waiting list as it removed the
double counting of those applicants registered for NIHE accommodation
as well as with an individual housing association operating their
own selection scheme. Since then there has been a continued rise
in demand and by 2002 the number on the waiting list jumped to
26,000 and by March 2003 stood at 26,700. At the end of September
2003 there were over 27,600 applicants on the Common Waiting List.
Analysis of the waiting list shows that it is
dominated by three household types: singles (44%), small families
(26%) and the elderly (19%).
The rise in demand for social housing is primarily
as a result of the increase in homelessness during 2002-03 with
a total of 16,426 households presenting as homeless, which was
a 16% increase over 2001-02. The main causes of homelessness continue
to be as a result of a sharing breakdown or family dispute and
marital/relationship breakdown. Other significant reasons for
homelessness include accommodation no longer being "reasonable",
loss of private rented accommodation and intimidation.
A recent national statistics publication by
the Department for Social Development, Housing Statistics 2002-03,
totals the social rented sector waiting list, including applicants
as well as existing tenants seeking a transfer, at 40,453. Almost
50% of these applicants (18,895) are deemed to be in "housing
stress". The measure of "housing stress" further
refines the overall demand for social housing into urgent need.
Housing Stress is defined on the basis of an applicant with 30
or more points following an assessment by the Housing Executive
of an application for accommodation.
However, the head count of applications registered
for accommodation is too simplistic a determination of demand
and requires more robust consideration of the demographic and
geographic analysis of need.
Traditionally Northern Ireland has had a distinctive
demographic structure in the context of the UK and the wider European
Union. From the 2001 Census Northern Ireland has a relatively
high proportion in the under 15 age group (23.6% compared to 20.1%
in UK) and a relatively low percentage in the over 65 group (15.5%
compared to 18% in UK). Northern Ireland has a much higher birth
rate and below average death rate than the UK or EU.
Key demographic trends from the Census show
increase (6.8%) in population to 1.7 million, despite net out-migration
of around 5,000. Strong growth in households at nearly three times
the rate of population growth and average household size fell
from 2.93 in 1991 to 2.65 in 2001. The proportion of single households
increased to 27% and there are more lone parents with dependent
children (9%) with a large fall in the proportion of married couples
with at least one dependent child from 31.7% to 24.3%.
There is also a falling birth rate, projected
to continue to decline below the rate at which the population
can sustain itself, and overall ageing which together imply the
population of Northern Ireland to be both falling and ageing.
Key trends from the Census highlight the declining
proportion of children which undoubtedly will have an impact on
the size and design of and the number of bedrooms in dwellings.
In addition the steady rise in number and proportion of pensioners
(in particular the rapid rise in the 75+ age) will have important
implications for not only the design of dwellings, but also the
support funding and care packages required to enable these pensioners
to live in comfort.
Emerging from the 2001 census, the Department
for Regional Development has examined its estimates for new housing
in the period to 2015 and has assessed that a further 6,454 additional
properties are required, making a total for projected housing
need of 166,354 new dwellings. The official target will be re-visited
in 2006 as part of the formal five year review of the Regional
Development Strategy.
However there are significant sub-regional demographic
variations which reinforce the need to take a "bottom up"
perspective on local housing need. The younger population in the
North and West and the South is likely to have fewer deaths and
a higher rate of household formation compared to the older population
profile of Belfast.
Analysis of the Common Waiting List, however,
shows the highest increase in "housing stress" tend
to be in Belfast or at least within easy commuting distance of
Belfast. The 12 NIHE Housing Management Districts with the highest
proportional increase in housing stress over the last two years
include North, South and East Belfast, Castlereagh, Newtownards,
Bangor, Newtownabbey, Lisburn (1& 2), Newry, Dungannon, Downpatrick
and Antrim.
Analysis of housing need in Northern Ireland
by demographic, geographic and household types provide important
pointers to the level of future demand for social housing. The
overall context of housing in Northern Ireland is one of a more
private housing system with home ownership levels nearing 75%
of households. Population projections and demographic trends indicate
further growth in demand and need. However, some trends suggest
that in the longer term there could be a falling rate of new household
formation and reducing demand. There is likely to be less need
for "family" accommodation in the social sector where
there is an increasing need expressed by singles, lone parents
and childless couples.
Nevertheless, as the waiting lists and level
of housing stress continues to rise it is important that a robust
new social housing programme is maintained and supply of social
housing is intensified.
THE CONTINUING
DECLINE IN
THE SUPPLY
OF SOCIAL
HOUSING
The factors that impact on the supply of social
housing include the level of re-lets, the number of new build
social housing units, new acquisitions, imbalance in supply and
demand, and the impact of the House Sales Scheme.
Housing need in the social rented sector is
primarily met by re-letting existing dwellings to new applicants.
In 2002-03 there were 8,766 allocations from the Common Waiting
List and a further 3,384 transfers. The average number of re-lets
over the last two years is around 8,000 per annum and although
this figure is showing signs of increasing, it has proved insufficient
to curb the rise in both the demand for social housing and those
assessed as being in housing stress. The continuing growth in
the number of applicants on the waiting list and those in "housing
stress" indicates that despite sustained economic growth
in Northern Ireland over the past five years and the construction
of record numbers of new private dwellings, there is an on-going
shortfall in the supply of social housing and low cost affordable
housing in the private sector.
The need for additional social housing is assessed
by the NIHE on the basis of its "top down" strategic
assessment of the need for social housing at the Northern Ireland
level, together with the "bottom up" analysis of needs
and demands expressed at a local level through the Common Waiting
List and latent demand testing in rural areas. It is the Department
for Social Development that has overall responsibility for new
build provision and funding through the housing association movement.
The DSD approves and manages the final programme and allocates
schemes to individual housing associations. The housing associations
build and manage the new dwellings. New social housing is no longer
built by the Housing Executive as from 1998 the housing associations
became the sole providers of new dwellings. This is not because
housing associations had demanded this change or that it was believed
that they could deliver the new build programme more efficiently
than the NIHE, but simply because borrowing rules allowed housing
association to access private monies to supplement capital grant
without impacting on central government borrowing.
For the last 10 years the Housing Executive
has used the Net Stock Model, developed by the University of Ulster
in 1994, as the starting point for developing the new social housing
programme. This model was recently re-examined and compared with
the "household headship and tenure split model" preferred
in England and Wales. This research was undertaken by a team of
researchers from the University of Ulster, University of Cambridge
and Queen's University, Belfast, and the models applied to Northern
Ireland. The Net Stock Model indicated the need for an average
annual social housing programme of 1,400 over the period 2001-11.The
household headship/tenure model indicated the need for an average
annual programme of around 1,500. However, neither model addressed
the significant and growing gap between what is required (at least
5,250 units March 2001-March 2004) and what has been delivered
(2,750). There is little doubt that the shortfall in additional
social housing is an important contributory factor to the increase
in the level of demand and the numbers in housing stress. The
Housing Executive estimates, using aggregate waiting list information,
that to tackle the new build backlog from 2004-11 an on-going
requirement for some 1,750-2,000 new units will be required each
year.
The DSD has identified a number of key problems
in delivering the new build programme. Land availability, acquisition
and price, planning and long lead in times were identified as
significant factors. As a result new and improved management structures
have been introduced, a more systematic approach to land identification
and a greater role for the NIHE in identifying and securing land,
anticipating building cost increases at an earlier stage and seeking
out design and build opportunities in areas of housing stress.
Practical action has also been taken to address the new build
shortfall and the number of new build starts (669) has been supplemented
through the "Acquisition of Satisfactory Housing" (ASH
Scheme).In 2002-03 in addition to the new build completions, a
further 147 dwellings were purchased "off the shelf"
on the open market in areas of high demand and a further 114 properties
purchased for rehabilitation or improvement. However, this policy
intervention is likely to be only a short-term solution as the
effect of this scheme on the local housing market in areas of
high demand could be to reduce the availability of low cost affordable
housing, artificially inflate average purchase prices of other
owner occupied dwellings, additional competition in the market,
undermine strategic planning which encourages the development
of mixed tenure balanced communities and drive economically active
residents from housing estates. In addition the DSD has agreed
to the removal of land cost restraints for new social dwellings
on a scheme by scheme basis as part of the NIHE homeless strategy
action plan.
Another factor impacting on the social housing
equation is the imbalance in supply and demand where there are
an oversupply and vacant dwellings in one area but demand has
collapsed, but these vacant dwellings cannot be simply transferred
to areas of housing stress. This situation is further compounded
when one factors in the level of segregation of social housing
in Northern Ireland which in the past was seen as being too problematic
to tackle, giving rise to the perception of a benign apartheid.
While it is recognised that there is not a single housing policy
solution to address segregation, following recent consultation
on the "A Shared Future" document, the NIHE,
in partnership with other agencies and government departments,
is working to facilitate and encourage integrated housing, safe
living and the management of contested environments.
However, the main factor that impacts on the
supply of social housing is the House Sales Scheme. Since its
inception in 1979, the Housing Executive has sold over 106,000
properties and it has sold more properties to sitting tenants
than it now manages. Last year there was a new peak for completed
sales of 6,156 reflecting the number of applicants applying to
buy to beat the deadline for the changes to the scheme which were
introduced in September 2002. Even with these changes, which capped
discount for the first time at £34,000, the Housing Executive
continues to operate the most generous house sales scheme in the
UK. With new build and new acquisitions totalling less than 1,000
units there has been a net loss of 5,000 social housing units
last year alone, and this looks set to continue for the next five
years. The Housing (NI) Order 2003 plans to extend the House Sales
Scheme to all housing associations in Northern Ireland following
a review of the operation of the scheme. While the CIH is not
opposed to selling to sitting tenants we argue for a better balance
between the aspirations of individual tenants and the needs of
communities. The CIH recommends:
— ending the obligation on the NIHE
to sell under the House Sales Scheme;
— allow house purchase policies for
NIHE and housing associations to be decided according to local
strategies;
— allow discounts to be determined
locally to reflect housing stress and demand;
— allow NIHE to retain all future capital
receipts for housing purposes;
— introduce Quota selling to preserve
a certain percentage of homes or particular types of stock;
— protect rural areas through exempting
settlements of population of less than 3,000;
— condition of sale that property offered
back to former landlord;
— ensure financial viability of existing
associations by allowing exemptions for a specified number of
years;
— introduce transferable discounts
for tenants in areas of high demand wishing to buy, allowing social
housing property to be retained;
— cost floor rule to include repair
and maintenance in addition to capital costs; and
— extend the three year clawback rule.
The CIH welcomes the fundamental review of House
Sales Scheme which will examine the effect of the House Sales
Scheme on the nature and supply of Housing Executive properties
and their ability to meet housing need, including any impact on
waiting lists at local levels. It is clear that in many areas
of Northern Ireland the supply of social housing is clearly inadequate
to meet rising housing stress.
THE QUALITY
OF THE
HOUSING STOCK
At first glance the quality of housing in Northern
Ireland is higher than the rest of the UK. However, strict reading
of the headline unfitness levels and increased levels of new build
construction, particularly in the private sector, disguise the
work that still needs to be done and the resources required to
improve and maintain housing condition in Northern Ireland.
It is important to recognise that direct comparisons
are often difficult when comparing conditions and quality of housing
stock in Northern Ireland with elsewhere. The base line construction
base is different in Northern Ireland, direct rule and the local
Northern Ireland Assembly has allowed adoption and piloting of
different construction standards and property types.
The first obvious housing quality difference
between Northern Ireland and elsewhere is that in the 1970's Northern
Ireland retained Parker Morris standards. In England this design
and space standard was diluted in a drive to achieve quantity
rather than quality. In Northern Ireland this was thought to be
short-sighted and a false economy which would require more expensive
rehabilitation and improvement in the future.
Also in Northern Ireland during the 1990's we
witnessed a number of common themes emerge from the strategic
agenda overlap between health and housing. The move to Community
Care and increasing demands for adaptations to assist people remaining
in their own home highlighted the limitations inherent in existing
housing stock. This led to the development of policies to improve
housing quality and increase space standards, with evaluation
in terms of health outcomes.
Consequently, in 1998 the Social Housing Programme
in Northern Ireland adopted Lifetime Homes. Lifetime Homes is
a 17 point design solution to make the property more flexible,
convenient, safe and accessible. The aim was to enhance the flexibility
and adaptability of new dwellings through design, by anticipating
the changing requirements of occupants and enabling the dwelling
to be adapted at minimum cost.
The CIH in Northern Ireland undertook a review
of Lifetime Homes in Northern Ireland and found that while the
introduction of Lifetime Homes for the social housing sector has
had some impact, the greatest impact will be realised by extending
these standards to the private sector, rather than persisting
with a two tier system of property standards. However, in Northern
Ireland we continue to build properties in the private sector
at a lower standard than the social sector that we know will require
expensive adaptations in the future. It is surely much more sensible
to design out these faults at the construction stage.
The CIH in Northern Ireland continues to work
with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and others in highlighting
the limitations in our housing stock and argue that through timely
action much of the expenditure currently being incurred in responding
to the changing needs of an increasing proportion of our population
could be largely avoidable in the future.
There has, nevertheless, been much improvement
across sectors in the overall quality of the housing stock in
Northern Ireland. The 2001 House Condition Survey highlighted
that of a total of 647,500 properties, more than a quarter were
constructed after 1980 and indeed nearly 15% of the total stock
had been built since 1990 as a result of the accelerated rate
of construction in this period.
This same survey showed sustained improvement
in the level of unfitness from 7.3% in 1996 to 4.9%, which is
on a par with the similar fitness reduction rate reported in the
2001 English House Condition Survey from 7.5% to 4.2%.
However, 59% of dwellings in 2001 are estimated
to have at least one repair fault and the total repair bill is
estimated at £924 million.
It is also worth noting that while in England
and Wales the government introduced the "Decent Homes Standard"
in 2002, this same standard has not been extended to Northern
Ireland. The House Condition Survey 2001 did, however, include
a comparison, had this standard been made applicable here, and
it was found that 206,000 dwellings failed to meet the standard,
including over 70,000 of the 100,000 Housing Executive properties.
Most of these dwellings failed on the basis of thermal comfort
criterion and the inefficiency of existing electric or solid fuel
heating systems.
The direct comparison using the Decent Homes
Standard more accurately reflect the work that still needs to
be done which it is estimated will require over £1 billion
over the next three years to maintain the steady progress that
has been made to reduce unfitness and improve housing conditions.
Quality remains a cornerstone of social housing
provision, construction and management in Northern Ireland. The
Housing Executive has committed itself to embrace the principles
of the Egan Report and has piloted partnering schemes in delivering
heating and response maintenance contracts. There are plans to
include adaptations contracts within the Egan contracting process.
This same partnering arrangements are not yet been extended to
housing associations in Northern Ireland.
The NIHE continues to promote innovative technical
standards, by consultation, encouraging consideration of design
features such as visual impact, layout, landscaping and accessibility
to key amenities. The Executive has also carried out pilot projects
using new technologies with demonstration projects for solar water
heating, Photovoltaic (solar electricity) and a new energy efficient
window system.
There are also examples of housing associations
piloting sustainable housing solutions including piloting SMART
homes and other assistive technologies.
However, there are a number of related issues
which impact on the demand supply and quality of social housing
in Northern Ireland which will require policy intervention.
The CIH recommends:
— Planning Policy Statement 12 to be
fully implemented to facilitate the provision of better local
market intelligence through Housing Need Assessments.
— House Sales Scheme to be reviewed.
— Licensing scheme for whole private
rented sector.
— Lifetime Homes to be extended to
all new build across sectors.
— Decent Homes Standard to be extended
to NI and attainment targets set.
— Housing Task Force to be established
for NI to investigate affordability and sustainable home ownership.
— Co-ownership to be supported and
greater confidence in level of social housing grant each year
to target the scheme as part of neighbourhood regeneration agenda.
— Recommendations in Barker Review
to be Northern Ireland "proofed".
10 March 2004
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