Annex 1
THE RISING DEMAND FOR SOCIAL HOUSING
1.1 The demand for social housing is influenced
by the number of people in housing stress, the turnover in housing
(re-lets) and the number of new build houses provided by Housing
Associations. The Department funds the new build social housing
programme which is delivered by means of a three-way partnership.
The Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) is responsible,
inter alia, for assessing housing need, using local waiting
list information and by applying the Net Stock Model (NSM). It
recommends a programme to the Department, the Department approves,
issues and monitors the programme and the 38 registered Housing
Associations are responsible for building and managing the new
dwellings.
1.2 Preliminary findings from the application
of the NSM to demographic and housing data for 2001-11 indicated
that an average of 1,400 units would be required annually; the
Cambridge model (usually applied in England) estimated that a
programme providing 1,500 units annually would be required to
meet housing need. The research emphasised the importance of revisiting
the models regularly, suggesting that no more than two years should
elapse between reviews and the importance of ensuring that the
models remain responsive to local information on need. This is
particularly relevant in the context of the Regional Strategic
Framework, which is forecasting considerable growth in the
number of households over the coming years.
1.3 In 1998 a Common Waiting List was introduced
for applicants for both NIHE and Housing Association general needs
accommodation. In 2000 a new scheme was implemented which:
— Makes almost all applicants and existing
tenants, who wish to transfer, subject to a points based assessment.
— Deals with health and social well-being
in a comprehensive and sensitive manner.
— Maintains a non-pointed list of applicants
with "complex needs" who require more specialised accommodation
and support services.
— Introduced a new definition of urgent
need on the basis of the points system, now classified as "Housing
Stress".
1.4 Since December 2000 the numbers of applicants
in housing stress (ie with more than 30 points) has increased.
This is attributable to four specific areas:
(a) Single persons continue to increase their
share of the waiting list.
(b) Elderly demand as a share of waiting
list is static, however in absolute terms the number of elderly
applicants for social housing is increasing annually.
(c) Geographic distribution is showing significant
growth on the periphery of Belfast—Belfast itself is still
the highest concentration of demand.
(d) The increase in the number of "vulnerable"
persons.
Table 8
TOTAL URGENT/HOUSING STRESS ON WAITING LIST
| Mar 99 | Mar 00
| Mar 01 | Mar 02
| Sept 02 |
Total urgent/housing stress
|
11,423
(55%)
| 9,918
(42%)
| 10,119
(43%) | 12,399
(50%)
| 13,235
(49%) |
| Total Waiting List | 20,642
(100%)
| 23,400
(100%) | 23,368
(100%)
| 24,641
(100%) | 27,073
(100%)
|
| Source: NIHE, 2004 |
| | |
| | |
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1.5 The increase in the list between 1999 and 2000 was
the result of the amalgamation of the lists formerly held on a
separate basis by NIHE and Housing Associations prior to the introduction
of the Common Selection Scheme and Waiting List.
Table 9
THE COMMON WAITING LIST—HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION 1993-2003
| Mar 1993 | Mar 1998
| Mar 2003 |
| Singles | 10,000 (42%) |
9,200 (41%) | 11,700 (44%) |
| Elderly | 4,800 (21%) | 4,900 (22%)
| 5,100 (19%) |
| Others | 8,800 (37%) | 8,600 (37%)
| 9,900 (37%) |
| Total | 23,600 | 22,700
| 26,700 |
| Source: NIHE, 2004 |
|
| |
| |
1.6 "In terms of composition, three household types
dominate the waiting list: singles (44%), small families (26%)
and elderly (19%). The proportion has changed little over the
past three years, but there are signs that the proportion of singles
is increasing while that of the other dominant groups is falling
a little." (Northern Ireland Housing Market Review and
Perspectives 2004-07). Housing need in the social housing
sector is principally met by relets, eg from 2001-03 relets to
applicants for social housing averaged around 8,000 per annum.
The NIHE have indicated that although the relets figure is increasing,
the rise has not been sufficient to prevent rises in both the
overall waiting list and the numbers of persons experiencing housing
stress. In the two years preceding March 2003, 57% of the increase
in the total number in housing stress was accounted for by singles;
small families and elderly persons accounted for an additional
16% each of the overall increase in applicants experiencing housing
stress.
Table 10
COMPOSITION OF THE WAITING LIST 2001-03
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2002
| Mar 2003 |
| Singles | 41% | 40%
| 44% |
| Small Family | 28% |
26% | 26% |
| Small Adult | 4% |
5% | 5% |
| Large Family | 5%
| 5% | 5%
|
| Large Adult | 1% |
1% | 1% |
| Elderly | 20% | 20%
| 19% |
| Total | 22,000 (100%) | 26,000 (100%)
| 26,700 (100%) |
| Source: NIHE, 2004 |
|
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1.7 In the six month period from the end of March to
the end of September 2003 the demand for social housing continued
to rise; at that time over 27,600 applicants were on the Common
Waiting List, with more than 14,000 considered to be in housing
stress. The problems presented by territoriality, discussed earlier,
are demonstrated in part by the apparent "mis-match"
between areas where there is high demand and areas where accommodation
is readily available. This is illustrated by the level of voids
within both NIHE and housing association stock in certain areas.
In 2002-03 the NIHE reported 6268 void units whilst housing associations
reported a total of 1208.
1.8 The current five year rolling programme of new social
housing is guided by strategic guidelines that envisage 10% of
the programme will be dedicated to rural areas, up to 20% set
aside for supported housing and the remaining 70% allocated to
general needs provision. It is intended that up to 25% of the
programme in future years will be used to address housing stress
in urban areas particularly in North and West Belfast. Each scheme
included in the programme is supported by individual market analysis
which means the programme is developed by integrating the "top-down"
strategic assessment of the need for social housing at the regional
level with the "bottom-up" analysis of need expressed
at local level through the Common Waiting List and latent demand
testing in rural areas.
1.9 A combination of factors such as the peace process,
a healthy economy, high employment levels and low interest rates
together with a massive increase in the price of land, has substantially
forced the price of houses up in certain areas and made affordability
an issue. Whilst at present, affordability is not seen as an immediate
or widespread problem, first time buyers in some local areas are
experiencing difficulties. This is particularly evident in popular
locations where demand is high, and has been evidenced in coastal
towns where the problem is exacerbated by the demand for second
homes. Many potential first time buyers may be forced onto the
social housing waiting lists. However, in other areas prices have
remained relatively static. The Department for Regional Development,
which has responsibility for strategic planning proposes, in a
forthcoming Planning Policy Statement on "Housing and Settlements",
to introduce measures which would use land zoning as a method
for delivering affordable housing in specific problem areas.
1.10 Whilst measures planned by DRD will play a major
part in determining the supply of development land for housing
provision to facilitate sustainable development and support the
delivery of social housing, they will not mitigate the anticipated
increase in demand, because of the escalation in the price of
land. Since 1995, the cost of land for residential development
has quadrupled. This change is a direct result of the demand versus
supply position of development land.
Table 11
COMPARISON OF KEY INDICATORS
| Residential Land (Small Sites): |
|
| 2001 to 2002 | +5% |
| 2002 to 2003 | +35% |
| 2003 to 2004 | +10% |
| Residential Land (Bulk Land): |
|
| 2001 to 2002 | +5% |
| 2002 to 2003 | +22% |
| 2003 to 2004 | +18% |
| Existing post-1960 Semi-detached house (average price to buy):
| |
| 2001 to 2002 | +11% |
| 2002 to 2003 | +10% |
| 2003 to 2004 | +9% |
| [Note: above based on average taken over the 26 No City/District Council Areas].
| |
| Source: DSD, 2003 |
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1.11 Meeting social housing need is further complicated
by a situation unique to Northern Ireland. Simply identifying
sites for housing development is a problem in, for example, North
Belfast, where there is an extremely high level of demand from
the Catholic side of the community, but low demand from the Protestant
side. Many potential brownfield development sites may be identified
in Protestant areas, but there are major community relations difficulties
and political sensitivities surrounding the use of these to meet
the needs of the Catholic community because of the territoriality
issue covered earlier. Housing development is therefore constrained
to the selection of small "pepper potted" areas of land,
to develop social housing for the Catholic side. This problem
is compounded as development on a number of sites in and around
the city centre for new build social housing schemes is currently
constrained by the implementation of the Belfast City Centre
Regeneration Strategy.
CONCLUSION
1.12 Demographic and economic factors are the primary
forces driving demand for social housing. The composition of the
Common Waiting List reflects changes in the structure and size
of households, evidenced by the increasing numbers of singles,
small families and elderly who are applying for accommodation
in the social housing sector. A stronger economy coupled with
scarcity in the supply of land for residential development has
inflated the cost of both private and social housing, making entry
to the housing market increasingly difficult.
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