Disputed figures
41. DSD explained that there had been concerns about
the robustness of the NSM and that a review had been carried out
by the Universities of Ulster and Cambridge which had "essentially
confirmed that the figure was more or less right "about 1,500
new units were required annually." The Department stressed
that the NSM did not identify " that there are particular
needs at particular locations" and that for local needs "information
is derived from another source."[70]
42. NIHE explained that the review applied two models
which confirmed the figure at between 1,400 and 1,500 but it strongly
recommended "that these models be used in conjunction with
other methods, especially 'bottom-up' waiting list data with its
detailed local information on demand pressure". NIHE concluded
"Using aggregate waiting list information it is estimated
that from 2004 there is an additional annual need for some 300
dwellings giving an ongoing requirement for some 1,750 new social
dwellings each year."[71]
43. This requirement for 1,750 new social dwellings
each year from 2004 appears to have been authoritatively accepted
by the organisations that gave evidence to us, with the notable
exception of the Department. Despite assuring us that the NIHE
is the sole arbiter and assessor of housing need in Northern Ireland
and that it "is responsible, inter alia, for assessing housing
need, using local waiting list information and by applying the
Net Stock Model"[72]
the Department appeared to disagree with the NIHE's conclusion
of the number of new social houses required annually. The Department
wrote to us saying 'there may be some confusion about the figure'
and pointed out that the review "confirmed a continuing requirement
of 1,500 a year including an allowance for backlog and mismatch".
In relation to the figure of 1,750, DSD stated: "I wish
to make it clear that this is the Housing Executive's figure and
has not been confirmed or accepted by the Department. The current
position is that we have asked the Housing Executive to explain
how they arrived at this figure and a response is awaited from
them."[73]
44. The result of this confused picture is that the
target for new social housing in the current year 2004-05 is unclear,
and this may explain why it has not been included in the current
DSD Public Service Agreement.
45. The picture became even more confusing when we
looked at funding where DSD told us at the end of March that for
2004/2005 it had reduced its " target to 1,300 based on the
money that is available to us" but that it "will be
bidding for additional funds to try and uplift that to at least
1,500 and, depending on the outworking of the review of the Net
Stock Model, perhaps even further."[74]
46. We found that the Minister's attempt to clarify
the overall position did not succeed in dispelling the confusion:
"The New Stock Model indicated an annual requirement
of about 1,500 units overall in Northern Ireland. As I said earlier,
there was therefore a feeling that, in order to deal with some
of these imbalances of demand between areas and estates, a flexibility
figure of 250 was required. What I also said was that - partly
affected by the fact that construction inflation, as everywhere,
has been moving ahead of the general rate of inflation and also
driven by the rise in house prices, and land prices have gone
up quite significantly - effectively we currently only have funding
for 1,300. That is precisely why we may need to look for an additional
bid. Those are the three figures and those are the reasons lying
behind what, as I said earlier, could be seen as a perceived inconsistency,
but which I think is reasonably coherent ….[75]
47. The level of new social housing required is not
an issue for academic debate but has a critical impact on people
in housing stress or homeless. Many of our respondents[76]
stressed to us that the shortfall in new social housing contributed
to the increase in the level of demand and the numbers in housing
stress.
48. We are concerned at the evident confusion
over the level of new social housing required in Northern Ireland
and the annual target for new build housing. It is also wrong
that the target has been arbitrarily reduced from 1,750 to 1,300
houses in the current year because funding has only been made
available for the smaller number. This is particularly unfortunate
when, despite strong evidence of escalating housing stress and
homelessness, around £37 million annually from record levels
of sales of existing Housing Executive stock[77]
is returned to the Treasury, when that could be used
for the benefit of the homeless in Northern Ireland.
49. One of the conclusions of the recent Committee
of Public Accounts report, Housing the Homeless[78]
was that "the Department must review urgently its
projections for the number of new social housing units required,
and the level of funding needed to provide them". We support
that recommendation and urge the Minister to set clear and unequivocal
targets for new social housing provision, and to ensure the provision
of an appropriate level of funding to meet those targets.
68 
