Examination of Witnesses (Questions 100
- 119)
WEDNESDAY 20 OCTOBER 2004
AIR CHIEF
MARSHAL SIR
JOCK STIRRUP
KCB AFC ADC
Q100 Mr Viggers: The first tranche
of Typhoon is 55 in an air defence role initially. Will they be
multi-role before entering service and when will they enter service?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Well, of course the Royal Air Force is already operating Typhoon.
We have ten aircraft in our colours now and in the hands of our
pilots and that number is increasing all the time. The question
of introduction to service is not a black-and-white state because
we will be introducing capabilities in an incremental way over
the next several years. The initial air defence capability we
expect to be fielded within the next few years, certainly in the
second half of this decade. What we have done is advance our air-to-surface
capability which we were expecting to introduce quite a bit later
and we have now brought that forward into the final batch of tranche
one aircraft, so our ability to be able to use the aircraft in
a multi-role sense will help us much earlier than we had anticipated.
Q101 Mr Viggers: And the latest on
the gun saga, the cannon which was phased out and replaced by
a lump of concrete and now we are getting the gun back again,
what is the latest position?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I think the position with the Typhoon gun is an excellent example
of where we want to be across the board with our equipment capability.
We cannot foresee with any accuracy the nature and/or scale of
all the threats and challenges we might have to face in the future,
so for us adaptability and agility, the ability to react to an
unforeseen future is crucial. We cannot do that by investing in
everything we can think of because we certainly will not need
all of those things and anyway we could not afford them. Our thinking
up to now on the Typhoon gun has been that we will not require
it because of the advances in short-range missiles and various
other tactics and techniques and procedures, but we could get
to a situation which we have not foreseen where we will require
it. Well, we have a gun in Typhoon and we are not planning to
fire it because it would cost us quite a bit more money in terms
of ground support equipment, fatigue on the air-frame and so on,
but if we decided that actually we did need it for something,
we could bring it into operation in very short order, so we have
complete flexibility as far as the Typhoon gun is concerned.
Chairman: I am sure some people are very
happy with that. I can recall ten years ago arguing the case and
we were totally, totally dismissed. However, our procurement policy
would have failed quite miserably, but I can imagine some scenario
where a plane has been shot down and is surrounded by hostiles
when perhaps it might be necessary, so I am pleased to hear of
flexibility in the decision-making.
Q102 Mike Gapes: Can I ask you about
the second tranche of Typhoon. The contract has not yet still
been agreed. Why is that? What are the issues that are holding
it up and when do you expect the contracts to be signed?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I think I would have to refer you to the Chief of Defence Procurement
for a definitive answer to that question.[1]
All I would say from my perspective, as the head of the Royal
Air Force, is that we want tranche two deliveries, but we want
the right aircraft delivered at the right cost. From my perspective,
that has been the ongoing issue over recent months. As the Secretary
of State has said, the United Kingdom is committed to tranche
2, subject to satisfactory negotiations on performance and cost.
Q103 Mike Gapes: It has been reported
that agreement was reached in Athens a couple of weeks ago. Is
that true?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I have no idea.
Q104 Mike Gapes: And you could not
give us any idea whether we are likely to have the signing of
the contract within the next three or four weeks, as has also
been suggested in some quarters?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I have no knowledge whatsoever of that and I would have to refer
you to the Chief of Defence Procurement.
Chairman: His appearance before us has
caused some consternation so I think it would be in his interests
not to appear before us for a while until the storm clouds have
drawn away!
Q105 Mike Gapes: Can I carry on,
Chairman. The tranche 2 aircraft when it is finally there will
be multi-role. Exactly what does that mean? What capabilities
will it have?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
First of all, I would just reiterate the point I made a few moments
ago which is the last of the tranche 1 aircraft will be multi-role
capable so we do not have to wait for tranche 2. It is one of
the good things that we have negotiated into this programme. We
have advanced our multi-role capability. What does it mean? It
means that we will have an aircraft that we can employ in a wide
variety of roles. Now, we will not be able to employ them in that
full variety of roles right from day one because it depends what
has been integrated on to the aircraft. The key thing to remember
about Typhoon is that it is very software intensive. The key to
Typhoon's capability in the future is the software because that
is what governs the integration of different sensors and weapons.
If I may just take a moment to say I have seen a lot of what I
regard to be ill-informed comment on Typhoon over recent months,
for example that it is a Cold War legacy. It is the case that
major platforms in all three environments from initial conception
to out-of-service date are going to be in service for anything
upwards of half a century and over that period things are going
to change many times so the key is that our platforms in which
we invest a lot of money and which we need in service for a long
time to amortise that cost must be adaptable. We must be able
to change the nature and/or scale of the capability we mount from
those platforms, and these days that is increasingly about software,
so that is at the heart of the integration of sensors and weapons
onto Typhoon. We have not made up our minds yet beyond the next
four to five years on precisely the order in which we wish to
integrate these weapons because we have not had to. The key decisions
we have made are to bring forward the integration of laser-guided
and GPS-guided precision weaponry onto Typhoon because that is
the most important capability we need in addition to air defence
to give us the kind of multi-role responsiveness we need today.
Beyond that we will decide our priorities in due course.
Q106 Mike Gapes: Will those laser-guided
precision weapons be capable of ground attack at night in low
cloud and in all weathers?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Yes.
Q107 Mike Gapes: Good. What about
the reconnaissance role? What is going to happen to that?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Of course we already have the Tornado GR4 with its raptor pod
which provides us with an excellent tactical reconnaissance capability.
The role which is currently fulfilled by the Jaguar will be taken
on by the Harrier which can carry the joint reconnaissance pod.
We have other more strategic reconnaissance assets of course and
in due course we plan to incorporate the reconnaissance role into
Typhoon. At the moment that is not at the top of the priority
list, but it will be there in due course.
Q108 Mike Gapes: That role that is
currently Jaguar will be taken on in a different way?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
It has been taken on by the Harrier in the short term.
Q109 Mike Gapes: But only by the
Harrier?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
The Harrier will be operating the reconnaissance sensor that the
Jaguar currently operates alongside the Harrier. We already have
the Tornado GR4 which will continue with its raptor pod and then
in due course we will feed in the reconnaissance capability of
the Typhoon as well.
Q110 Mike Gapes: How do you envisage
the role of the Typhoon in operations such as the US Airforce
is currently undertaking at Fallujah? Would it have a role in
operations of that kind?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I would not want to comment on specific operations or Fallujah.
What I would say is that Typhoon would have a role across the
operational spectrum. It will have a precision attack capability,
it will have an air defence capability, in due course it will
have a reconnaissance capability, and our intention is to build
out of this programme a highly capable, adaptable, agile aircraft
that we can use across a wide range of situations.
Q111 Mike Gapes: Assuming that a
decision or an agreement is either here or imminent and the signing
is imminent or not too long away, when would you expect the tranche
2 aircraft to actually be operational?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I am not sure I can answer that question and I am not sure that
it is, if I may say, the nub of the issue which you are seeking
to get at. The issue of operational employment is an issue of
software. At the moment air frames are being built. Tranche 2
aeroplanes will be somewhat different from tranche 1 aeroplanes
but the key to the operational deployment, whichever tranche they
are, is the software standard that is built at that particular
moment in time so it really is not an issue of tranche 1 versus
tranche 2; it is an issue of software development.
Q112 Mike Gapes: We have got 55 at
the moment in tranche 1 and we have got 89 to come with tranche
2. Do you think we will ever have a tranche 3?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
The UK has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for 232 Typhoons.
That remains the position. From my perspective tranche 3 is not
yet on my radar horizon. I am interested in tranche 2 and in the
delivery of the capabilities through the software build standards
and integration that we need on those tranche 1 and 2 aircraft.
Q113 Mike Gapes: We have been told
as a Committee that decisions do not need to be taken before 2007
on tranche 3. It may not therefore be on your radar understandably
at this moment but nevertheless do you think it would be a good
idea if tranche 3 were to be cancelled, postponed, moved to the
right? Do you think we need it?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I do not think that we are in a position to make that judgment
at the moment. The contract is not due for signature until at
least 2007 and we are constantly reviewing our position, our balance
between numbers and overall capability, and all of those deliberations
will no doubt influence decisions taken in 2007. I really do not
think that this is the moment to be worrying about that. We have
other things to worry about which are much more immediate, like
tranche 2 and the capability of build standards.
Q114 Chairman: I can think of many
arguments why it is not imperative to make any decision on tranche
3. One question we have not asked is are there any financial penalties
for not proceeding? The concept of financial penalties seems to
be more directed towards the Germans pulling out.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I think that the answer to that depends upon so many variables
that I would have to once again refer you to procurement experts.[2]
Chairman: Okay, right. Dai Havard?
Q115 Mr Havard: We were originally
told by the MoD that there was going to be no gap between the
Jaguar and the Typhoon's introduction and then in Future Capabilities
we were told that that had been revised and in fact there is going
to be a gap because the Jaguars are going to be taken out of service
two years earlier than was originally planned and told to us.
The first question I suppose is how long is that gap going to
be?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
There is not going to be a gap between the final end of the Jaguar
force and the beginning of the Typhoon force.
Q116 Mr Havard: There is no gap?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
There is not going to be a gap between the final end of the Jaguar
force and the very beginning of the Typhoon force. What we are
not doing is taking each squadron and as it goes out of service
with the Jaguar replacing it with the Typhoon squadron at that
same moment in time. We do not actually do that anyway because
if you were to do that, during that transition period you would
need twice the number of people you have to man both because you
have got to work up one force while you are still manning the
other. So there is always an element of feathering the two together
but, as I said earlier, we had originally anticipated that we
would not be able to reduce our total number of offensive aircraft
for example in the case of Jaguar until we had the capabilities
that we were seeking in Typhoon. However it has become apparent
through the improvements that we have made through the years that
the qualitative advances we have achieved enable us to run down
those numbers ahead of Typhoon coming into service. Typhoon will
build on those qualitative advances and give us the additional
flexibility of a true multi-role aircraft but it does mean we
are able to advance the out-of-service dates of the Jaguar and
one of the F3 squadrons.
Q117 Mr Havard: There seems to have
been an assessment then of what the threats are today. You made
a point about predicting the future is a very uncertain thing
to do but what you seem to be saying is that Tornado and Harrier
are going to be that much more capable than was originally envisaged
and that Typhoon will slowly be introduced into that package as
well. Against today's assessment of what is required that is going
to be sufficient, is it, for this period of time because one of
the questions that seems to come is that 62 Jaguars are going
to be dispensed with because the Tornadoes and Harriers combination
is going to be that more capable yet very quickly afterwards we
have to have 89 Typhoons to plug the gap that was left by 62 Jaguars.
We are getting very confused about exactly where these gaps and
enhancements in capability and in protection not only for today's
threats but other predicted threats will be. So are you going
to have this capability?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
I am sorry, I do not recognise the numbers that you have quoted
because we do not have 89 Typhoons replacing 62 Jaguars. But what
I would go back to is the point about capability—effect
not numbers and what can you actually do—and we are able
to do much more with our aircraft now than we have been able to
do in the past. I go back to the example which I cite fairly frequently.
In Iraq last year we deployed only 70% of the number of fast jets
we used on Operation Granby in 1991 and yet our force in Iraq
last year was considerably more powerful and capable than its
predecessor of 12 years earlier because we had invested in things
that made that smaller number more capable overall than the larger
number. That is what we will continue to do and what we plan to
do for the future. So it is only logical if you take that progression
forward that you can now achieve your effects with a smaller number
of aircraft.
Q118 Mr Havard: You see this as a
seamless process then that will provide this capability? There
is a suspicion on this side that this is largely driven and where
you have a spectacular example is where you may have, say, twice
as many aircraft as you have got pilots and it is to do with whether
or not you can find people properly to fly these assets. The other
thing is these aircraft are £23 million a copy or whatever
it is. There are lots of boots and people to put in boots that
you can provide for £23 million. So decisions about how many
of these you can have and what they can do and what capabilities
they can provide, as you will understand, is quite a serious sort
of question, so is it going to achieve this trick?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Yes it is. You posed a number of implicit questions in what you
just said and made some statements with which I would fundamentally
disagree and I am very happy to address those if we want to pose
them as specific questions. In this instance from my perspective
the issue is not the number of Typhoon replacing the number of
Jaguar. The issue is not will advancing the out-of-service date
of Jaguar create an operational capability gap; the issue is managing
the people. We have to move from a Jaguar and F3 force to a Typhoon
force. Those people who were on the Jaguar and F3 forces—pilots,
the weapons systems operators, the ground crew—have to move
from one job to another, and managing that transition is my key
challenge. So in looking at those out-of-service dates what I
have had to consider is does this fit in with the flow of people
from one force to another because that is what maintains our capability,
and the answer to that is, yes, we have tailored this specifically
to achieve that.
Chairman: We have to go out and vote
to protect your pensions. Please forgive us for departing.
The Committee suspended from 3.40 pm to 3.59
pm for divisions in the House.
Chairman: An unexpected time out. I am
afraid there will be another vote so you will have to be patient,
so sorry. James Cran please.
Q119 Mr Cran: Air Chief Marshal,
on to the subject of training in a specific sense, you will not
recall but I will read out the quote to you from our report on
the lessons of Iraq where we said: "However, we feel that
the shortcomings in the practice and training of close air support
by the RAF and land forces which have emerged in recent operations
must be urgently addressed." We then go on to say in our
view what has to be addressed. Perhaps you will recall that. Could
you bring us up-to-date with where that is?
Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup:
Absolutely. We have a project of which you will be aware, Project
Conningham Keyes, to address specifically those issues and it
incorporates all three front-line commands, not just air and land
but maritime as well. As I said in response to an earlier question,
we found that the issues boil down to three specific areas. The
first one is the structure and organisation for running air/land
co-operation. We have a structure, we have had it for many years,
but our conclusions are that a) it is not big enough and b) it
does not have sufficient clout, it is not run at a senior enough
level, and that we need fundamentally to improve that. The second
area concerns the whole question of doctrine. There are undoubtedly
in UK doctrine, in NATO doctrine, in US doctrine some gaps which
have emerged as capabilities have changed over the years. That
has to be addressed. Our view is that if we put in place the right
structure and manning for our air support organisation they are
the people to do that and to take that forward jointly between
the three Services. Then the final area is the one of training
because you can have processes, you can have procedures, but your
people have to train if they are to be effective and they have
to train together using the skills they will need in combat. There
are two strands of work addressing this. First is the longer term
strand which incorporate these issues and this kind of training
in our overall defence exercise programme so that it is institutionalised
in what we do but, secondly, we have identified a number of areas
where we can get some quick wins, where we can insert this training
in exercises that are already planned, bring assets together,
and make use of the potential synergy that we have, and that avenue
is being explored as well. So we are making considerable progress
on all of those three fronts. I would only add as one rider that
quite a bit of this requires additional resource.
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