Examination of Witnesses (Questions 227
- 239)
WEDNESDAY 3 NOVEMBER 2004
GENERAL SIR
MIKE JACKSON
KCB CBE DSO ADC GEN
Q227 Chairman: Welcome again. It
is a pleasure to see you. You realise that some of the time will
be spent talking about the future of regiments about which there
is a future. I am sure, as you are a robust defender of the arrangements,
we will have our views, if not changed, at least more informed.
Is there any statement you would like to make to start, General?
General Sir Mike Jackson: I am
just very grateful for this opportunity to lay out before the
Committee the future of the Army, which I know you are as interested
and passionate about as I am. So I am very grateful to be here.
Q228 Mike Gapes: Can I begin by asking
you about the size of the Army? The total establishment is planned
to be reduced by 5,000 UK-trained adult personnel. We have had
previous evidence given to us. The Secretary of State said in
September that, in the recent period, the strength of the Army
had been consistently below its establishment.
General Sir Mike Jackson: Correct.
Q229 Mike Gapes: We also heard in
a previous inquiry into the Defence White Paper from the Chief
of Defence Staff, who pointed out the demographic factors which
were coming through. Is this reduction a recognition of the realities,
or is it a strategic decision?
General Sir Mike Jackson: The
Army's actual strength today is around 103,500. That is where
we are. Until the July announcement, the "liability"—in
the jargon—the target number of the Army was about 106,000
to 106,500, something of that order. That is a number which goes
up and down as new equipment comes in and goes out. It is a fluctuating
figure; but the actual strength is 103,500. As you know, the White
Paper target is around 102,000. This number has been arrived at
by a very rigorous examination of what the future Army structure
should look like. That is not to say that resources do not come
into this equation, because of course they do. You would not expect
otherwise. However, that is the position we are at now.
Q230 Mike Gapes: That 102,000 figure,
as against the 106,000 that you had as an aspiration for establishment,
is made up of just under 100,000 UK regulars plus 2,400 Gurkhas,
is that correct?
General Sir Mike Jackson: That
is about it. I should add a qualification. The 102,000 is dependent
upon reaching normalisation in Northern Ireland. Until that happens,
we have people in Northern Ireland who are there in support of
the civil power, and so that number is an end-state number, post-normalisation.
Q231 Mike Gapes: Are those people
actually in Northern Ireland or are they in Germany but deployed
to Northern Ireland?
General Sir Mike Jackson: They
are both—to be difficult. GOC Northern Ireland's command
includes soldiers stationed in Northern Ireland, obviously, but
also soldiers, mainly infantry but not exclusively, stationed
elsewhere but who are available to him. They are under his command,
and he can call them into Northern Ireland or send them back again
as circumstances and he see fit.
Q232 Mike Gapes: We know that there
is going to be a demographic decline in the number of 16 to 24
year-olds.
General Sir Mike Jackson: After
a while. My understanding is that, in the age group in which the
Army is interested, it is level pegging or even a very slight
increase over the next four or five years, after which there is
then a downturn—not dramatic, but it is there.
Q233 Mike Gapes: Is this figure,
the 102,000, taking account of the situation now or the situation
as it will be in four or five years, when that downturn happens?
General Sir Mike Jackson: It is
looking ahead. That is part of the factors which one has to take
in. We have to look at what the Army can recruit. Obviously from
an, in due course, somewhat diminishing population of that age
group that we see, it needs to be factored in. It is not a single
factor; it is part of it.
Q234 Mike Gapes: Are you confident
that you will get that 102,000, given this demographic change?
General Sir Mike Jackson: Yes,
because I do not think the demographic change is that abrupt.
We do not know other dimensions, of course, such as employment
at that stage. How strong will the economy be? Let us hope it
is very strong, but we do not know that. As far I can judge, I
believe that 102,000 is a sensible and achievable target for the
Army in the long term, because we are not looking at the next
three or four years: we are looking a decade and two out.
Q235 Mr Viggers: Future Capabilities
states that "all the manpower freed up by the restructuring
of the infantry will be reinvested", and it lists five areas
where this reinvestment will take place. Can I first clarify the
2,500 posts which are being freed up? There are 2,500 being freed
up by the normalisation process in Northern Ireland.
General Sir Mike Jackson: No.
That is the strength of the four infantry battalions which will
be reduced from the current infantry order of battle.
Q236 Mr Viggers: The Secretary of
State said in his evidence before us how we should best use the
2,500 posts freed from Northern Ireland.
General Sir Mike Jackson: If you
put the two together, we have reduced the Northern Ireland order
of battle by four battalions. They have come out of the GOC's
command and into Land Command's order of battle. We are also—and
I know there is scope for confusion here—in the longer term
reducing the Army's order of battle by four battalions, of which
no doubt more to follow.
Q237 Mr Viggers: The Chief of Defence
Staff, in evidence before us, said "the normalisation process
in Northern Ireland eventually will have a different lay-down".
I think what he is saying—can you confirm this?—is
that there are two figures of 2,500: one, as it were, released
by Future Capabilities and the other, as it were, reduced
by normalisation in Northern Ireland.
General Sir Mike Jackson: Yes.
Q238 Mr Viggers: It is not 5,000;
they overlay each other.
General Sir Mike Jackson: They
are linked together and it is not 5,000. We can talk of this in
battalions or in numbers: it does not really matter terribly.
However, over this summer we have already, with the full agreement
obviously of the Northern Ireland Office, taken four battalions
out of Northern Ireland and put them back into the general all-purpose
infantry, if I can put it that way. In due course—and the
White Paper says by 2008—we will need to reduce the infantry
as a whole by four battalions. There is scope for getting the
two conflated together, where they are separate issues.
Q239 Mr Viggers: Yes, I think I understand.
Two different ways of counting a similar figure.
General Sir Mike Jackson: Yes.
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