APPENDIX 8
Memorandum submitted by the Institution
of Civil Engineers
INSTITUTION OF
CIVIL ENGINEERS
The Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) is
a UK-based international organisation with over 75,000 members
ranging from professional civil engineers to students. It is an
educational and qualifying body and has charitable status under
UK law. Founded in 1818, ICE has become recognised worldwide for
its excellence as a centre of learning, as a qualifying body and
as a public voice for the profession.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The ICE welcomes the opportunity to
present the following statements and evidence as part of the inquiry.
As an international organisation, the ICE represents members drawn
from a number of constituencies—UK members and residents,
British engineers working throughout the world, and foreign members
working through out the world, and of course in the UK. Although
impossible to canvass the views of all members, we take a position
of arguing both for the UK economy and its engineering profession.
Engineers have a key role in the team that will deliver a low
carbon future.
1.2 Climate change is a key part of the
debate on sustainability and it is now commonplace to ascribe
exceptional weather conditions as being caused by global warming.
The evidence suggests that these issues affect all parts of our
lives. Climate change is not a national problem, or even a regional
problem; the impacts will change conditions for everyone on the
planet. Although individuals can try to reduce their own production
of climate change emissions, their decision is for a large part
swamped by the actions of all mankind.
1.3 Climate change gases arise directly
from the various energy industries as well as transport, other
industries, including construction and mining, commercial operations
and domestic life. Nature itself can also produce climate change
gases in such examples as volcanic eruptions and coal bed methane.
So the problem is widespread and must be considered in terms of
the sum of many parts.
1.4 The UK has accepted the policy of prevention,
or reduction in climate change, but as the UK only contributes
about 2% of climate change gases, we must use international persuasion
to influence the producers of the other 98%. Of course, energy
supply and associated processes are one side of the coin; on the
other side is energy demand. Both need to be addressed if the
problem is to be resolved.
1.5 We urge an international response to
the issues of climate change based on the themes of limiting overall
global emissions and setting equitable emission rights between
nations—the "Contraction and convergence" model.
Engineers, members of this Institution and the other engineering
Institutions are well aware of the importance of sustainability.
Our education, training and professional responsibilities place
our duties towards the environment at a high level in our work.
The engineering profession is prepared to face the challenges
of climate change.
2. FEASIBILITY
OF AN
INTERNATIONAL ETS
2.1 CO2 reduction
2.1.1 The purpose of an international ETS
is to attempt to reduce the production of GHG (in particular CO2)
or at least to maintain the production at current levels.
2.1.2 First, we must look at the demand
for energy, and consider the ongoing demand, especially in the
developing world.
2.1.3 We are concerned that energy efficiency
and energy use reduction needs to be developed and understood.
Energy consumption per capita is increasing at an annual rate
of about 0.7% across the EU, and at a much higher rate in the
recent accession countries to the EU. We expect this trend to
be reflected amongst other regions in the world—in Asia,
South America and Africa—as development relies on energy.
Table 1 shows the increase in electrical consumption in the EU
and USA. Data on electrical production is an indication of the
growth in energy production. Total energy use is approximately
three or four times higher than electrical production alone.
Table 1
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE EU AND
USA 1985-2002
| EU 1985 | EU 1997
| EU 2001 | EU
Increase
1985-2001
| EU[3]
candidates
1985
| EU
candidates
1997 | EU
candidates
2001
| Increase
1985-2001 | USA
1985
| USA
1997 | USA
2002
| Increase
1985-2002 |
| Generating capacity per inhabitant kW/person
| 1.34 | 1.5 | 1.56
| 16% | 0.55 | 0.77
| 0.87[4]
| 32% | 2.94 | 2.95
| 3.5 | 19% |
| Electricity generated per inhabitant kWh/person
| 5,355 | 6,487 | 7,029
| 31% | 2,883 | 3,012
| 3,181 | 10.3% | 10,659
| 13,754 | 13,778 | 29%
|
| CO2 emissions per inhabitant Tonnes/person |
8.3 | 8.1 | 8.3 |
0 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
7.5 | 0 | 19.6 |
20.7 | 21.3 | 9% |
Source: EU, Eurostat, EIA and Private estimates.
2.1.4 The UK Government's policy to meet its targets
for CO2 reduction depends for a large part on increasing the proportion
of renewable generation for the production of electricity to 10%
by 2010 and onwards. Engineers, recognising the significance of
climate change, have a major part to play in driving towards these
targets, but the targets are challenging and will not be reached
without a major re-appraisal of short term and medium term policy
in a number of areas.
Increasing Energy Consumption
2.1.5 Overall energy consumption is increasing. Almost
as fast as energy efficiency is introduced, more and more demands
are placed on the electricity network, both domestically and in
the work place. The National Grid has had to revise upwards its
forecast for generation capacity. [5]Renewable
sources of generation offer a diverse portfolio—and all
must be considered if we are to meet these targets. Although significant,
the growth in windpower alone will not be able to satisfy the
UK's increased demands for electricity. Other forms of renewable
generation must also be considered as part of our plans. Solar
pv will make a contribution, biomass and geothermal offer more
controllable energy sources.
Renewable Generation
2.1.6 Other large-scale renewable generation needs to
be considered in order to extend our energy resources. The next
wave of renewable energy sources is in the marine sector, in particular
tidal flow and wave energy. The UK should be persuaded to invest
heavily in this area and bring forward commercially viable technologies.
This will not be possible without significant investment and R&D
into this fledgling industry—with significant long-term
downstream benefits to UK's civil/marine engineering industry
as well as to the nation's energy resources. We welcome initiatives
to increase the adoption of solar photo-voltaics (pv), both in
the UK and world-wide, as well as the greater use of biomass as
a fuel source. In any case, the Institution continues to press
for a debate on the longer-term security of supply issue. This
debate must give serious consideration to the use of tidal power
barrages and the renewed use of nuclear power alongside increased
use of renewables. Most of the UK's existing nuclear power capacity
will be retired by 2025. The UK should take steps to ensure that
skills and process are maintained so that, should new nuclear
capacity be required, the licensing and construction processes
can be completed expediently. A more equal emphasis should be
given to both nuclear and renewable technologies than at present.
Centralised Power & Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
2.1.7 The model of centralised power systems has served
the UK well for more than 80 years. Significant progress is now
being made in restructuring power systems to include more distributed
generation and combined heat and power projects. Flagship projects
such as the CHP in Woking illustrate modern thinking. Their benefit
is three fold: first a reduction in overall energy consumption
as higher efficiency generating plant is used, secondly a reduction
as losses in transmission are reduced and thirdly, encouragement
of the attitude that focuses on the sustainable long term use
of energy use. Similar projects are limited in their take up because
of the need for them to meet rigorous cost benefit analyses before
project money is available.
2.1.8 We should beware of the false promises that sometimes
spring from the merchants of new technology. Micro and distributed
generation may offer apparently lower cost energy when compared
on a metric such as pennies/kWh taken on an annual basis, whilst
quietly ignoring the true cost of "load following" the
demand of the individual consumer. We see micro-generation as
part of the solution, but, for the most part users of micro-generation
will remain connected to power networks for provision of energy
management and ancillary services.
The Relationship Between Energy & Power
2.1.9 Some other countries are making good progress towards
installation of renewable energy resources, but we need to look
behind the first layer of the figures. For while wind generating
capacity has increased in many European countries, actual energy
production from wind is much lower because of the relatively low
capacity factor and the intermittent nature of wind energy.
2.1.10 We must differentiate between energy production
and power requirement, especially when we debate wind energy.
A power network needs generating capacity, expressed usually in
MW or GW, but the users of the network require energy to be available,
usually varying with the time of day. To meet the instantaneous
demands requires all the wind generators to be operating at rated
output, hence an allowance must be made for low- or no-wind days.
Even if the UK could produce more than 20% of its electrical power
from renewable resources, there would need to be major changes
in the electrical infrastructure and more electrical energy storage
to make the power available when required. To put this simply,
more generation is required than would be calculated directly
from the theoretical annual production from renewable resources.
Generation from Gas
2.1.11 The UK's reliance on imported natural gas is an
insufficient response. It was a fortuitous co-incidence that a
large proportion of power generation switched from coal to natural
gas during the early 1990s. This brought together several threads:
improved combined cycle gas turbine efficiency (CCGT), the lifting
of the embargo on generation from natural gas and the privatisation
of the power industry. The reductions in emissions have now been
obtained, and there will only be marginal gains from natural gas.
The UK is close to its 12.5% Kyoto target. CO2 decreased by 7.5%
between 1990 and 2003 despite an 8% rise in consumption. We do
note that there was a 1.5% increase in CO2 emissions in 2003.
The switch to natural gas is also reflected in the average figures
for the EU.
2.1.12 The UK Government's aim of reducing CO2 by 20%
by 2010 hinges crucially in reducing coal burnt in power generation.
Reductions to date have all come from a switch from coal to gas
burn for electricity generation—the other sectors totalling
82% of energy use, in commercial and domestic heating and transport
have achieved no real savings. The split of the latter two is
roughly 40% each of the total. CO2 from domestic and commercial
heating and vehicles are rising inexorably with no likely curtailment
in the short term.
Other Sectors
2.1.13 Indeed, the environmental audit committee of the
Commons reported in August 2004 that the Government's energy strategy
was now "seriously off course" and "that more imaginative
and radical" policies were needed for transport. Transport's
share of UK emissions are expected to rise from 18.7% to 26.3%
in 2010. Air transport has almost doubled between 1990 and 2002.
The large increase in regional aviation might reduce emissions
and wasted energy involved from travel between major hub airports,
but much of the increase appears to have made from the increase
in the overall market for aviation. There has been a 17% increase
in road traffic since 1997. There is very little enthusiasm within
the UK for the preparation of liquid fuels such as bio-diesel
made from renewable resources, which might show some small savings.
Such bio-fuels are however being used in other countries, such
as France, showing a welcome link between agricultural policy,
EU subsidy, transport action and action for sustainability.
The Hydrogen Economy
2.1.14 The hydrogen economy is still many years away.
Hydrogen should be seen as an energy vector, and not as a fuel
source. As an energy vector it is currently has a low through
efficiency. Unless the hydrogen is produced from very low carbon-emitting
sources, such as hydrolysis using nuclear[6],
wind power or hydro-power there is little to be gained. We are
also concerned that the effects of hydrogen in the upper atmosphere
are not understood. Estimates of hydrogen leakage vary from 0.1%
to as much as 10% when transported. We also note that despite
widespread research on the development of the hydrogen infrastructure,
there has been little attention paid to the use of the oxygen
that is also produced during the hydrolysis process. It is claimed
that hydrogen would offer a credible form of energy storage, but
there is not yet sufficient evidence to conclude that problems
would be solved by use of a hydrogen infrastructure. The PIU reported[7]
that to produce sufficient hydrogen for transport in the UK would
require more energy than our present electrical consumption. Even
a small proportion of the world-wide speculative investment in
fuel cells and hydrogen infrastructure would make a significant
difference to stimulating development of other more near term
renewable resources.
2.1.15 Low cost energy storage would be an essential
enabling technology to support large-scale integration of renewable
generation. Electrical energy storage is available—for example,
pumped hydro and many types of batteries. However large-scale
battery storage is still viewed as an emerging technology, and
large scale demonstrations of battery storage and renewable generation
should be encouraged with a similar level of enthusiasm and financial
support that is given to hydrogen storage.
2.1.16 Although hydrogen is seen as replacement fuel
for road transport, care needs to be taken that the problem is
not simply shifted from the city centre to an electrolysis plant.
For unless the hydrogen is produced from surplus nuclear or renewable
energy, its value in displacing CO2 is doubtful. There is a small
societal credit to be gained from encouraging individuals to behave
more responsibly, but large savings in CO2 production are not
likely in the short term.
2.2 National ETS
2.2.1 Before an international ETS can be considered,
we should examine the feasibility of a more local or regional
ETS.
2.2.2 We do not believe that it will be credible to persuade
individuals to join an ETS. There would need to be real financial
incentives to persuade individuals to buy and sell rights to emissions—and
in any case, it would probably have to be restricted to those
fuels which can be measured, such as mains supplied electricity,
gas and road fuel. Solid fuels are likely to be excluded from
the market. The initial allocation of emission rights would be
open to debate. For example, should it be based on historic rights
or on a uniform allocation? We suspect therefore that incentivising
individuals will need some form of economic signal, with a social
bias to reduce hardship and fuel poverty for the most vulnerable.
It is likely that the most vulnerable are using the most inefficient
forms of heating, although as a total proportion of national energy
use, this may be a very small fraction.
2.2.3 The challenge arises when one considers the commercial,
transport and industrial sectors. If an allocation is made on
the basis of historic use of fuel, then there is a danger that
older, less efficient industries can continue to pollute, and
thereby make it harder for new entrants to the market to offer
cleaner processes. If the allocation is made purely on economic
signals—for example purchases of rights to emit, then older
industries may find themselves stranded.
2.2.4 Such considerations need to be weighed against
international activities. Each nation will look at its economic
growth and standing in world markets, and consider whether it
wishes to stunt growth or even curtail it.
2.2.5 International agreements are therefore a necessary
activity. However the record of participation in international
agreements is not good. Several countries are seeking to increase
their emissions under the Kyoto agreements, and many countries
are taking little action to participate. This means that if the
UK takes its responsibilities seriously, it is penalising itself
through additional economic and technical burdens against its
competitors who are avoiding such action. This should not mean
that the UK withdraws from these agreements, but we should re-double
our efforts to not only meet the targets, but also persuade other
countries so to do, and furthermore, encourage British industry
to benefit in the process.
2.2.6 Radical agendas require radical measures. Wide
ranging legislation across a wide variety of topics appears to
lead to widespread avoidance of compliance. Using EU directives
as a means of stabilising climate change simply adds to the burden
of red tape affecting industry and commerce. Changing the industrial
lifestyle will require more than restrictive directives. Leaving
choice to the market is also likely to be ineffective.
3. ALTERNATIVES TO
AN ETS
3.1 An ETS might not be necessary if there was a substantial
switch to cleaner energy sources, coupled with a dramatic reduction
in energy use. Carbon sequestration might also make a small impact
on the total production of CO2.
3.2 The UK Renewables Obligation Certificate (ROC) has
had a major impact on the planning of the UK's power industry.
Although imperfect, it has many desirable features and the ICE
will support its retention in the longer term. European or International
adoption of ROCs (or very similar schemes) would be a simple,
yet effective means of increasing the proportion of non fossil-fired
power generation, provided that such schemes were extended to
all low carbon technologies. [8]At
present, ROCs cannot be claimed by nuclear generators. A step
change, allocating ROCs to nuclear generators would distort and
disrupt the present market, but nevertheless the scheme should
eventually cover all non CO2 emitting generation.
3.3 An extension of the ROCs project to other industries
besides electricity would also be desirable. It could for example
be applied to road fuel. Railway systems (using electric traction)
already have to subscribe to the ROC's scheme through their power
purchases, but are not covered for their supplies of oil for diesel
traction.
3.4 We would also propose consideration of "negative
ROCS" to be earned by reforestation or other CO absorbing
projects.
3.5 There would be strong benefits in extending a ROCs
scheme internationally. An international ROCs project, operating
with common rules should simplify international actions. Emissions
are not subject to frontiers and it would be unfortunate if a
polluting producer on one side of a frontier is able to continue
in business, while restrictions in a neighbouring country limit
production from a competitor. As more electricity is traded internationally,
there should also be international trade in ROCs.
3.6 Applied uniformly and fairly, the ROCs could and
should be extended internationally. There will always be minor
anomalies, but these should not be insuperable. The risk is that
heavy CO emitters will continue to move to non-enforcing countries,
but this threat should not be used as a counter argument.
4. THE APPROACH
AND OBJECTIVES
OF THE
UK GOVERNMENT DURING
THE PRESIDENCY
OF THE
G8 AND EU
4.1 There are many worthy issues for today's political
agenda. Issues rise to the top of the sheet when they gain public
awareness and public ownership. Public confidence can just as
easily be lost when hypocrisy and bureaucracy override the underlying
issues. We recommend against large worldwide conferences to discuss
climate change. Numerous large national delegations travelling
to central locations are inherently environmentally inefficient.
Some other way of gaining international consensus should be found.
4.2 As the UK is only in the Chair for a relatively short
period, the UK should push for a policy that can be followed in
successive rounds. Overall, all countries should reduce their
emissions by improving the efficiency of energy conversion and
reducing energy demand, and there should be equality between nations
with convergence of emissions measured in terms of production
of CO2/person.
4.3 We urge the UK government to focus on some simple
messages:
— Reduce energy use at source—energy efficiency
in lighting, heating, industrial production and transport.
— Reduce indirect energy use—encourage sustainable
communities: reduce unnecessary transport costs, waste disposal
costs.
— Increase the proportion of energy produced from
non-GHG sources.
4.4 As the world becomes smaller and international co-operation
increases, climate change issues should be an integral part of
the consideration of multi-national policy such as the WTO/GATT
forum. The links between climate change and health, poverty, food
shortages, weather related natural disasters should be a priority
part of any international agenda.
4.5 These messages are as relevant to the UK as they
are to the EU and to the world in general.
4.6 Sharing these common values should be the international
objective. Actions to promote ETS or ROCs are only necessary because
these messages have not been accepted internationally.
5. CONTRIBUTIONS OF
INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENT
DEPARTMENTS
5.1 The messages from government departments should be
consistent. Often they are overlapping and at worst contradictory.
5.2 Example a) New building regulations such as Part
L for the commercial and domestic sector, do not ensure a minimum
energy profile for any new building. The developers still build
to the lowest cost and not the lowest energy consumption. Current
building projects and approved developments as part of the massive
UK expansion in Town Centre developments (supported in most part
by English Partnership funding) do not come anywhere near the
low energy options that are well-tried and available now. This
includes, better low energy lighting systems, better control and
the use of natural ventilation and free cooling options. The planning
process does not allow for the selection of low energy options,
it just relies on Part L which is definitely not the only solution.
Energy options and energy reductions in new buildings will need
to re-addressed during the buildings' lifetimes and constraints
imposed now are reducing the opportunities for improvements later.
5.3 Example b) The integration of local CHP based on
the development of both gas fired and renewable energy are not
being fully explored or implemented.
5.4 Example c) The Department for Education & Skills
should reconsider the specification for new school buildings.
At present the specification is too prescriptive and encourages
LEA's to hide behind the regulations rather than opening up the
design to include best practice and future innovation.
5.5 Example d) Local authority planning guidance does
not encourage best practice for siting new houses, offices, shops
and schools with respect to long-term sustainability. Business
premises are closing at a large rate in many communities and being
turned into high value homes, which rely on individuals commuting
by cars to work in new business premises on out-of-town industrial
estates. More generally, transport links to new businesses and
infrastructure need to be assessed at an earlier stage in the
planning process. Transport needs must also include waste recycling
and disposal.
5.6 Example e) DFID policy (which rightly targets poverty
reduction first) is not wholly consistent with trends pushing
for increased sustainability of UK infrastructure (eg Integrated
Travel Plans, Sustainable Buildings) and (increasingly) renewable
energy to lead to long term commitment to 60% CO2 reductions in
the UK by 2050.
5.7 Example f) The omission of air travel from the Kyoto
agreement, and the contradiction between the Aviation White Paper
and the UK climate change commitments is not co-ordinated policy.
A real debate on what mobility is achievable within a framework
for climate change emissions reduction is needed.
5.8 There continues to be a discontinuity between road
and rail. While the South East is served by a good infrastructure
of surface and subsurface lines and interconnecting bus services,
this is not the case elsewhere. Railway lines follow routes laid
down by the engineers of former centuries and provided connections
into centres of population. Transferring people to rail requires
new railway stations to be opened in accessible places, park and
ride projects are to be commended in this regard.
5.9 The use of energy within both domestic and commercial
buildings is largely un-controlled. With the growing use of home
computer based systems and additional domestic electrical appliances,
electricity consumption will continue to rise without any foreseeable
controls. [9]Government
policy is to encourage the use of broadband domestically—which
is invariably left to run continuously.
5.10 Substantial reductions in CO2 and other GHG can
only be achieved by substantial switches to other fuel sources
in all sectors. Nuclear power is one such obvious choice. Tidal
barrages should also be considered. The UK government's support
for large-scale generation switches to alternative technologies
should be reflected by an increase in industrial activity in the
nuclear and tidal engineering industries, both to service the
home and overseas markets. There is a requirement not only to
plan future capacity to meet increases in generation, but also
improved capacity to match plant retirements.
6. CONCLUSIONS
6.1 Meeting the UK's own targets to reduce GHG will be
challenging. Increasing renewable generation to provide 10% of
energy by 2010 requires a thorough commitment by both Government
and industry. The target should be seen as part of a sustainable
strategy for energy policy that takes the country through to the
government's targets for 2050. We wish to see a greater informed
debate about other generation sources, such as tidal barrage and
nuclear in order to balance the stochastic generation from wind
and other renewable sources.
6.2 We believe that the current use of ROC's is providing
a workable means of identifying non-GHG generation and shows the
right incentives to producers and consumers. We would encourage
extension of the ROCs project to include all types of non-GHG
generation. The principles of ROCs should be applied in other
areas such as road and rail fuels.
6.3 The power industry is only one part of the energy
industry. Equal attention must be given to industrial, domestic
and transport sectors.
6.4 Our national energy policy should encompass reduction
of consumption, reduction of emissions as well as fuel sources
and security of supply. The energy policy should be in the context
of an overall framework, linking targets to policy through a network
of consistent and achievable actions. We should be prepared to
stand by our principles, let them carry weight in the international
arena and encourage their adoption by other nations as well.
1 November 2004
3
Accession countries and candidate countries. Back
4
Estimate. Back
5
National Grid Transco, Seven Year Statement 2004. Back
6
Nuclear technology can be used to produce hydrogen through electrolysis
and also thermochemical routes. Back
7
Cabinet Office, Performance and Innovation Unit, Energy Review,
February 2002. Back
8
ROCs have helped promote renewables in the UK, but they cannot
be used by nuclear generators. As the focus of this consultation
is reduction of CO2 emissions we believe nuclear should be included. Back
9
Many domestic devices are designed to be "on" or "standby"
continuously, which adds to the demand for both energy and capacity.
Standby domestic power consumption is about 10% of the total.
Source: IEA 2001. Back
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