Memorandum submitted by Sir David King,
Government's Chief Scientific Adviser (U34)
INTRODUCTION
1. I welcome the Committee's interest in
the critical issue of climate change. In my capacity as the Government's
Chief Scientific Adviser my own involvement in the subject is
well known and has been wide-ranging. This has included:
— Presenting climate change science
and raising the awareness of climate change amongst the public,
industry, Parliament and Governments worldwide.
— Focusing on the action required,
including: (i) the energy innovation needed to achieve a radical
shift to a low carbon economy, (ii) the establishment of the UK
Energy Research Centre, (iii) UK participation in the International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (fusion) project, and (iv)
steps to improve the energy performance of the built environment.
— Providing support to Defra, FCO and
No 10 on international action, as well as through the network
of international Science and Technology Attaches and the Global
Science and Innovation Forum.
2. Based on the science, the key driver
for policy at UK, G8 and EU levels is clear and, not withstanding
the often complex nature of climate change science, relatively
simple. We must reduce greenhouse gas emissions from human activity
to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and for which carbon
dioxide is the biggest contributor. There is a need for a step
change in energy efficiency and for a radical shift from use of
fossil fuels to low carbon energy generation. To achieve these
ends, determined action is required on a global scale.
3. Climate change is not just an issue for
the longer term, though it is certainly that, but one that requires
action now. I therefore welcome that the highest priority will
be attached to this by the Government for the UK's G8 and EU Presidencies,
and I will personally support fully those aspects of the UK programme
where I have a contribution to make.
4. I firmly believe, and have stated publicly
many times, that climate change is the biggest single global challenge
that we face. Our success or failure in taking the steps necessary
to tackle it now, and over the next couple of decades, will play
out for centuries to come. If unchecked, and if we fail to adapt,
it has the potential to be catastrophic.
5. I have been closely involved in the development
of the Government's G8 Presidency plans, work that has been led
by Defra. As the Prime Minister has recently announced, early
on under our Presidency the UK's world-leading Hadley Centre will
host an international meeting to review the latest climate change
science. I see this as a key event that will help to establish
the state of the science while waiting for the Fourth Assessment
report from the IPCC. In particular, I believe it will be helpful
to highlight the increasing evidence that anthropogenic emissions
are causing climate change, and to achieve greater clarity on
the impact of current emissions trajectories, including their
potential cost in both economic and human terms. The meeting will
brief the UK's Presidency for the purpose of informing the G8
summit how current science is developing our understanding of
anthropogenically induced global warming and its impacts.
6. The Government also intends to convene
an international meeting of Energy Research Institutions. This
will be an opportunity for a global review of the energy technologies
likely to help us to achieve a low carbon future, and the scope
for enhanced international co-operation and action to bring this
about.
7. Linking with the other key theme of the
UK's G8 Presidency—Africa—the Prime Minister has commissioned
a study of Africa in relation to climate change, to review what
information is available and to evaluate the adequacy of existing
data to inform policy decisions. The position in Africa is very
different from the more advanced developing countries where there
is patchy but growing appreciation of the climate problem and
its impacts. Much less scientific work has been carried out on
the impacts of climate change on Africa and there is much we simply
do not know. The study can add considerable value by identifying
these knowledge gaps and what needs to be done to plug them.
UK CLIMATE CHANGE
PROGRAMME—REVIEW
8. The UK Government has led the world in
setting a bold plan and targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This includes the aim to have reduced carbon dioxide emissions
by 60% below 1990 levels between 1990 and 2050. The review of
the UK's Climate Change Programme I believe is a key step in assessing
whether we are on track towards our goals; and, if not, what we
can and must do about it.
9. If the UK is to retain its position of
leadership on climate change then it is clearly crucial to our
credibility that we stay on track towards our domestic goals.
Indeed, given that the UK contributes just 2% to global CO2
emissions, the UK's programme can only make sense if set in the
context of moves towards wider international action.
10. But I would not underestimate the scale
of the challenge. The UK's goals are ambitious—but at the
same time I believe necessary. Indeed, since the climate change
programme was developed, the science has moved on. In particular,
the assessment that a relatively "safe" level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere—equating to a 20ºC global
average temperature rise—would be around 550 parts per million
(ppm) now looks to have been optimistic. The latest assessment
published by the IPCC suggests that a limit closer to 450 ppm
is likely to be necessary.
11. There is more science to be done to
achieve international agreement on what constitutes "dangerous
climate change" and related stabilisation levels. I hope
that the climate science conference referred to above will help
progress this. Nonetheless, I believe that in reviewing the UK's
climate change programme the significant shift in scientific opinion
that has taken place on this issue will need to be factored in.
7 October 2004
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