Annex II
Quantifying the UK's over allocation in the first
round of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (2005-08)
The current draft allocation plan covers 46%
of the UK's carbon dioxide emissions. In 2002 we were 8.7% below
our 1990 CO2 emissions levels needing to make a further
11.3% reduction (18.6 MtC) by 2010 to meet our 20% target. Even
if we are aiming for only a 15.2% reduction by 2010 then savings
of 10.7 MtC across all sectors need to made.
NAP allocation
The current NAP proposes only a 3% reduction
on industrial emissions (a 0.2% reduction on the baseline years)
which is 2 MtC off 2002 levels by 2007.
To reach the 15.2% target from now until 2007
a "fair share" requirement on industry calculated by
proportion of emissions would be 3.5 MtC.
This would require emissions in other sectors
(domestic and transport) to be reducing in equal proportion. However
emissions in these sectors are currently rising. If however we
assume they can be stabilised to reach our target then industrial
emissions would need to reduce by the full amount eg 7.6 MtC.
1990 baseline = 164.6 MtC
2010 15.2% target = 25MtC reduction
2002 achievement to date = 14.3MtC
Gap = 10.7 MtC
46% = 4.9MtC
2002-07 contribution (linear path) = 3.5 MtC
Assuming no decline in transport and domestic emissions
= 7.6 MtC
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