Written evidence submitted by Dr Philippos
Savvides, Research Fellow, Hellenic Foundation for European and
Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
On April 24, 2004 the two communities of Cyprus,
Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, were asked to determine via
two separate and simultaneous referenda whether or not they would
accept the comprehensive solution presented to them by the Secretary
General of the UN, Kofi Annan. The Greek Cypriot community, by
a majority of 76%, rejected the proposed plan whereas the Turkish
Cypriot community, by a majority of 65%, accepted it. These developments
created a new environment on the island and have shaped the approach
international actors involved are now following. This new environment
has transformed the ways in which the current state of affairs
and the prospects for a solution are evaluated.
THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT
What are some of the characteristics of this
new environment?
1. Greek Cypriots are facing the implications
of their decision to reject the Annan Plan. They are witnessing
the changes on the ground in the areas under the control of the
Turkish army as well as the ways in which the international community
has responded to the referenda results. The Greek Cypriot community
has entered a period of introspection and evaluation of the implications
of its decision.
2. Turkish Cypriots have entered into a
new phase in their relationship with both the Greek Cypriots and
the international community. An effort is underway by the European
Union and other international actors to enhance the community's
economic social as well as political development[1]
3. The relations between the two communities
have come under strain the day after the referenda. Turkish Cypriots
have a deep sense of disappointment due to Greek Cypriot rejection
of the Annan Plan. Contacts between the two communities continue
as before. However, there is a growing disillusionment regarding
the prospects for a solution in the near future.
4. The Democratic Rally (DI.SI) party has
taken the initiative, followed by the Communist AKEL party, to
begin a dialogue between the two communities in order to mitigate
the mistrust and the negative feelings created by the rejection
of the Annan Plan. At the same time, civil society organizations
are also working towards this end.
5. There are important changes on the ground:
a construction boom is taking place in the north part of the island.
Specifically, the Kyrenia district has been characterized as a
"huge construction site". According to latest data collected,
the construction development in Kyrenia is up to 62% compared
to other areas of the island that are under Turkish control. Turkish
Cypriot estimation suggests that in the last few months the Greek
Cypriot land sold is worth more than two billion dollars.
6. The construction boom has created new
demand for labour. Hence, increasingly new labourers are being
brought to the island in order to cover these needs. This new
wave of settlement is sharpening the demographic alteration of
the island complicating even more the prospects for final arrangements
on the issue of settlers.
7. According to a latest estimate there
are about 10,000 Turkish Cypriots working in the areas controlled
by the government of the Republic of Cyprus. At the same time,
a growing number of Greek Cypriots is establishing business cooperation
on several sectors, especially on tourism. However, this is done
under an unclear political and legal base which undermines the
prospects for further cooperation[2]
8. Greece has been a strong supporter of
Turkey's European endeavor. It remains a supporter for the opening
of accession negotiations between EU and Turkey provided that
the latter operates under the spirit and the letter of the EU
acqui and demonstrates a constructive attitude towards the resolution
of bilateral disputes as well as of the Cyprus issue. Greek-Turkish
rapprochement is a positive element for the prospects of resolving
the Cyprus problem.
Prospects for solution
What are the prospects for a solution in the
near future?
Under present circumstances the probability
for a solution by the end of the year seems remote. No initiative
has been undertaken either by the government of Cyprus nor the
UN nor by the other actors involved for a solution. Furthermore,
Greek Cypriot public opinion has not been prepared for a "second
referendum." Most likely, it will take some time before a
serious attempt is made and it will depend both on the international
circumstances and, especially, on developments in the domestic
front of Cyprus. In April 2005 presidential "elections"
are scheduled to take place within the Turkish Cypriot community.
The results will shape to a great extent the new dynamics within
the community. Similarly, in May 2006 there are going to be parliamentary
elections for the Greek Cypriots which could potentially transform
the domestic dynamics of Cyprus's political system.
Time, however, is not working in favor of unification.
On the contrary. The passage of time is cementing the partition
of the island to the detriment of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots
alike. What is needed, therefore, are initiatives to prepare the
ground so that a new effort for a solution can be successfully
undertaken. These initiatives must come primarily from the government
of the Republic of Cyprus and supported by the UN, the EU, Great
Britain and the US as well as the Turkish Cypriot leadership and
the government of Turkey.
Current challenges and needed initiatives
The current challenge is two-fold: (a) to create
the conditions within the Greek Cypriot community to approve a
"bizonal-bicommunal federation" as a solution to the
Cyprus problem and, at the same time, (b) to avoid the disillusionment
of the Turkish Cypriot community and preserve its volition for
a solution. This is not an easy task as the two processes must
be undertaken in parallel without undermining each other. What
kind of initiatives must be undertaken?
1. It is generally accepted that the Annan
Plan remains the basis for a solution to the Cyprus problem. At
the same, however, it needs to be adjusted in order to reflect
the new realities created by the accession of Cyprus into the
EU as well as the new dimensions introduced in the framework of
the European Constitution. Specifically, one needs to introduce
new timetables for the return of land and properties and for the
withdrawal of troops as well as some additional guarantees by
the EU and the UN Security Council providing for the implementation
of the solution and introduced by mutual agreement between the
leaders of the two communities. Also, during negotiations the
two communities could agree to mutually beneficial changes to
the plan. In general, any changes will remain peripheral without
altering the philosophy and the balance of the plan as a whole.
2. The government of Cyprus should clarify
its position with regard to the changes it wants to bring about
on the Annan Plan. At the same time, President Tassos Papadopoulos
should initiate an exploratory dialogue with the Turkish Cypriot
leadership in order to prepare the ground for substantive final
negotiations based on the Annan Plan.
3. The Turkish Cypriot leadership should
put a break on the uncontrollable construction boom on Greek Cypriot
properties in the Kyrenia district and elsewhere as well as on
the new wave of settlers. This is important in order to prevent
the Greek Cypriot community from becoming totally alienated.
4. The Turkish Cypriot leadership can take
the initiative to put an end to the practice of requesting identity
cards and passports from Greek Cypriots and others who want to
cross to the northern part of Cyprus. Such a gesture, as well
as agreeing with the opening of additional crossing points, will
undermine any efforts in the Greek Cypriot community to associate
the current Turkish leadership with the policies that had been
followed by Rauf Denktash.
5. The economic, social and political development
of the Turkish Cypriot community is vitally important. The EU
has taken the necessary steps toward this end. More can be done
in order to facilitate domestic and foreign trade of Turkish Cypriot
products. However, it will prove counterproductive for all efforts
to reach a solution if any measures introduced lead to a situation
where the status quo is cemented. In other words, the creation
of another "Taiwan" in the eastern Mediterranean will
undermine the prospects of unification and peaceful coexistence.
In conclusion, Great Britain and the rest of
the international community can exercise "constructive pressure"
to both sides in Cyprus to take initiatives in order to re-start
final negotiations based on the Annan Plan. The key to keep the
prospects for a solution open is to avoid measures and policies
that solidify the status quo. The challenge is to keep the desire
for a solution alive in both the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot
communities.
Dr Philippos Savvides
17 October 2004
1 This statement represents solely the views of the
author and not necessarily the Foundation, its Board of Directors,
its staff or its sponsors. Back
2
The statistical information provided is being widely reported
in the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot press during the last
few months. Back
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