House of Commons - Foreign Affairs

Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Sixth Report

2 The ongoing threat from terrorism

8. There is clearly a continuing threat from international terrorism. Since our last Report, which was published in July 2004,[5] there has been no let up in attacks across the globe. Foreign embassies have been high among the targets, although locals have also borne the brunt of many of the attacks. In February, three explosions in the Philippines were claimed by the separatist group Abu Sayyaf, which has been linked with al Qaeda.[6] In December 2004, the US Consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, was attacked by gunmen, resulting in the death of nine people.[7] In September 2004, an explosion at the Australian Embassy in Indonesia killed at least nine people and left 180 injured.[8] There have also been almost daily atrocities in Iraq.[9]

9. The threat from terrorism has been felt by British Embassies. On 5 January 2005, the United Kingdom's Embassy in Yemen was closed in response to specific security concerns. The FCO's travel advice for Yemen warned: "There is a high threat from terrorism. As at 30 December, there is specific information that terrorists are in the final stages of planning attacks against British targets and other Western interests in Yemen."[10] Also in January, the British Embassy in Jakarta was closed in response to a specific bomb threat.[11]

10. There remains a real risk of terrorist attack in the United Kingdom. This was highlighted recently by the claim by the former Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police Sir John Stevens that there are up to 200 al Qaeda terrorists in the United Kingdom[12] and domestic controversy over how to deal with foreign terrorist suspects. In February, the Home Affairs Committee questioned the Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, about terrorism-related issues.[13] The Committee is also considering some of the domestic consequences of this threat.[14] The conviction in 2003 of British 'shoe-bomber' Richard Reid illustrates the threat to the United Kingdom.[15]

Tackling al Qaeda

11. In its assessments of progress in the war against terrorism, the US has emphasised its success in targeting individual terrorists and al Qaeda leaders. On 4 October 2004, in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, said:

[M]ore than two thirds of al Qaeda's key members and associates have been detained, captured or killed. Osama bin Laden is on the run. Many of his key associates are behind bars or dead. His financial lines have been reduced, but not closed down. And I suspect he spends a good deal of every day avoiding being caught.[16]

12. Arrests continue to be made: for example, in September 2004, a number of senior al Qaeda suspects were detained in Pakistan.[17] However, there are doubts over the accuracy of US assertions that the leadership of al Qaeda has been neutralised. Jane Corbin, an expert on al Qaeda and global terrorism with Panorama, told us:

[T]his is a message that comes constantly from the Bush Administration, and the figure they give is that between two-thirds and three-quarters of al-Qaeda's leadership has been dealt with, but this was the three-quarters of the leadership that we knew about on 9/11 and that is three years ago, and there is an alternative leadership now. First of all, they have not taken out the people at the very top and those underneath them, we are led to believe, have been replaced by others… We could talk about names endlessly, but I personally do not believe that you can say that the majority of al-Qaeda's leaders are taken out."[18]

13. There are also concerns over the effectiveness of this strategy. Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Osama bin Laden Unit, has criticised the US administration for failing to understand the nature of the threat posed by al Qaeda and continuing to view it as a terrorist organisation that can be defeated by arresting or killing its operatives one at a time.[19] Jane Corbin expressed similar concerns to us:

[Al Qaeda] has always operated in cells anyway and I am not quite sure how important leaders, in the sense that we understand them in the West as military operational chiefs. I am not sure how important they are, I am less confident that the organisation has been decapitated and still the man at the very top and indeed his deputy and indeed Mullah Omah, who were the three top wanted figures when the War on Terror was launched, are still at large, and whether they exercise day-to-day control or not, they are figureheads and they are very important, I think, as propaganda tools for al-Qaeda.[20]

14. The murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in November 2004 raised anew questions about the 'fragmentation' of al Qaeda and what has become known as the al Qaeda 'franchise'.[21] Reports suggest that 'Hofstadnetwerk' (the Netherlands-based group of Islamic radicals linked with the murder) had a small core of fewer than ten people and that while some group members had links with international Islamist causes or individuals, there were no clear external influences on the group's activities.[22]

15. Jane Corbin warned us that this development in no way represents a diminution of the threat:

From my observations within Iraq and in other parts of the world, I do not think it is safer in any way. I would have to, if I am honest, say that I feel that the world is a less safe place because of the fracturing of these groups, their ability to form looser and looser affiliations and to grow their network… in the first six months after 9/11 in the war in Afghanistan… al-Qaeda was severely hit, it was difficult for them to operate, but what has been extraordinary is their ability to fight back not as a single organisation, and it never was that by the way, but its ability to grow other organisations and to form affiliations. Therefore, a more diffuse network is more difficult to deal with and, consequently, I think, therefore, that the world is less safe.[23]

Iraq

16. There is evidence that Iraq has exacerbated the problem. In September 2004, the Prime Minister referred to Iraq as "the crucible in which the future of this global terrorism will be determined."[24] The Prime Minister also described the Iraqi elections in January as a blow to global terrorism.[25] Indeed, the election was more successful than had been anticipated.[26]

17. Nevertheless, there is an international terrorist presence in Iraq: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his group Tawhid wa al-Jihad are believed to be behind a series of suicide attacks, the assassination of scores of government officials including Izzedin Salim, then Chair of the Iraqi Governing Council, and the kidnapping and beheading of both Iraqis and foreigners, including British citizen Ken Bigley. However, there is some uncertainty over the relationship between Zarqawi and al Qaeda.[27]

18. In his February 2003 speech to the UN Security Council setting out the case for war against Iraq, US Secretary of State Colin Powell referred to Zarqawi as "an associate and collaborator of Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda lieutenants."[28] In early 2004, the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq released a letter from Zarqawi. The letter appeared to be a strategy advisory note for senior al Qaeda leaders, including bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri (the letter suggests a strategy of inciting sectarian conflict in Iraq).[29]

19. More recently, on 17 October 2004, a statement on an Islamist website purporting to be by Tawhid wa al-Jihad pledged allegiance by Zarqawi and his fighters to bin Laden.[30] However, there has been speculation that Zarqawi and bin Laden are in competition.[31]

20. Kamran al-Karadaghi of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting told us: "It is still really doubtful whether, for example, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is or was al Qaeda; he works on his own."[32] Jane Corbin expanded on the relationship between Zarqawi and al Qaeda:

I think that al-Zarqawi has sought to affiliate himself with al-Qaeda rather than being sent to the region as an emissary for al-Qaeda… We know that he knows bin Laden, he has spent time in Afghanistan, and he has, as it were, the stamp of the Afghan veteran on his passport, so there are links in that way, but I think it is simplistic to say he is part of al-Qaeda or he was sent there to fulfil a role. I think he looks for credibility from bin Laden and he looks to be part of his organisation, but we do not know whether he is able to travel freely over and back, or whether he is able to take any kind of instruction from him in any way.[33]

21. One reason al Qaeda has been able to operate in Iraq is the lack of law and order in the country. Speaking about Zarqawi, Jane Corbin told us:

[H]e has been able obviously to move in areas like Fallujah and the "Sunni triangle" where that chaos is far more serious than it is in other parts of the country which operate still in a reasonable way, so I think that that is why he is able to move with impunity and gather followers and to perpetrate some of the really awful hostage-taking that we have seen.[34]

22. Indeed, there is concern that Iraq is providing much the same opportunities that Afghanistan previously provided for terrorist training and experience. In February, CIA Director Porter Goss told the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that the conflict in Iraq has become a cause for extremists and that: "jihadists who survive will leave Iraq experienced in and focused on acts of urban terrorism. They represent a potential pool of contacts to build transnational terrorist cells, groups, and networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries."[35] This reflected the findings of the December 2004 report by the US National Intelligence Council. This report warned that Iraq could become a breeding ground for terrorists, with survivors using their experience around the world.[36]

State sponsors of terrorism

23. In our Report of July 2004, we noted the need for greater co-operation on the part of Iran and Syria to prevent foreign fighters from crossing into Iraq.[37] This remains true.[38] In addition, there remain concerns over the support given by both Iran and Syria to terrorist groups. In a speech at the National Defense University in March, President Bush said: "Syria, as well as Iran, has a long history of supporting terrorist groups determined to sow division and chaos in the Middle East, and there is every possibility they will try this strategy again."[39]

24. In our Report of January 2004, we noted that Iran retains links to Palestinian terrorist groups and has the ability to diminish the capacity of terrorists to derail the political process in Israel and Palestine.[40] We also noted Syria's continued support for Palestinian terrorist groups as well as its influence over Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon (it should be noted that Hezbollah has a 'dual identity' as a terrorist group and a powerful political force in Lebanon). We noted that although Syria had taken some steps to close the offices of Palestinian groups in Damascus, these were largely cosmetic.[41] Reflecting this concern, there are suggestions that the suicide attack in Tel Aviv in February may have been carried out by a group based in Syria.[42] Attention has also focussed on possible Syrian links with terrorism following the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon. Syria is suspected of involvement in the 14 February assassination owing to Mr Hariri's close association with Lebanese opposition to Syria's dominant position in Lebanon.[43] Defence of the Syrian position by both Hezbollah and Iran will have done little to reassure the international community.

Winning the war?

25. The continued incidence of attacks as well as the risk that Iraq is providing a breeding ground for the terrorists of the future suggest that the war against terrorism is far from being won. Jane Corbin told us about her continuing concerns:

There have been successes in certain parts of the world and I think in other parts and certainly in Saudi I think the problem still remains very, very acute, just as the Saudi authorities, who seem to be far more focused now on their hunt for these people, just as they arrest or kill one leader of al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda is able to announce the formation of a new group and a new leader, so I think in those areas we cannot say that we are getting on top of the problem. Al-Qaeda remains a threat and it is always looking through affiliated groups, through like-minded organisations who share the same philosophy and it is always looking for opportunities, for weaknesses in states, for difficulties that it can exploit to bring into being, and to encourage, local chapters.[44]

26. As Porter Goss told the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: "al-Qa'ida is a patient, persistent, imaginative, adaptive and dangerous opponent."[45] There also remain very real concerns over efforts by terrorists to gain WMD.[46]

27. We conclude that al Qaeda continues to pose a serious threat to the United Kingdom and its interests. Indeed, this threat may have grown more difficult to tackle in the years since 11 September 2001 owing to the fragmentation of groups and individuals associated with al Qaeda. This was shown once again by the recent suicide car bomb attack on a theatre packed with Westerners for a performance of Shakespeare's 'Twelfth Night' in Doha, Qatar, where there had been no such attacks previously. We further conclude that Iraq is providing a dangerous training ground for terrorists similar to that previously provided by Afghanistan. We further conclude that states such as Iran and Syria are not taking sufficient steps to prevent terrorism either in neighbouring Iraq or in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. We recommend that the Government continue to make it clear to these states that they must end all support and assistance for terrorist groups and take meaningful steps to stop their territory from being used by terrorists.

5 Seventh Report from the Foreign Affairs Committee, Session 2003-04, Foreign Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism, HC 441-I. Back

6 "Philippines hit by three blasts", BBC News Online, 14 February 2005. Back

7 "Gunmen storm US mission in Saudi", BBC News Online, 6 December 2004. Back

8 "Australia firm after Jakarta bomb", BBC News Online, 9 September 2004. Back

9 The situation in Iraq is discussed in more detail in paras 99-109. Back

10 FCO Travel Advice, 6 January 2005, available at: http://www.fco.gov.uk Back

11 "Bomb threat to Jakarta missions", BBC News Online, 14 January 2005; see also http://www.fco.gov.uk Back

12 "Al-Qaeda "has 200 on UK streets"", BBC News Online, 6 March 2005. Back

13 Oral Evidence given by the Rt Hon Charles Clarke MP, Secretary of State for the Home Department, 8 February 2005, HC 321-i. Back

14 Home Affairs Committee Press Notice, Session 2004-05, 23 February 2005. Back

15 "Shoe bomber" jailed for life", BBC News Online, 30 January 2003. Back

16 Remarks by Donald Rumsfeld at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 4 October 2004, available at: www.cfr.org Back